The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

rkausar - 13 Oct'04 - 16:19 - 564 of 565

Tokyo,

In your expert opinion, how far do you think this share is going to go down????????


Rkausar - Really I'm no expert, I've dealt with some great shares over the last 18 months, but nothing as volitile as PET is at the moment, the bottom in this SP is really hard to call at the moment without really knowing what is bringing it down, is it

a. T traders having to close their positions
b. Institutions trying to bring down the SP to get some protective buys in
c Private investors locking in their profits, and in doing so spooking other smaller investors into selling
d The market adjusting to risk/reward ratio of PET

My opinion is that it is mainly the latter with a little of the others thrown in. In the absence of news this share price has had to fall back, I think you will find 80/83 pence as the bottom, but beware PET are getting untold e-mails requesting an rns, so one could be issued to calm the SP, one could also be issued to say their cheif geologist is now in Iraq continuing negioations, they have already issued one talking about urgent discussions
This share really is like nothing I have ever dealt with before, the one thing I am feeling confident about is that PET will be awarded the 1st contract, the only question is when!!!
PET shares should be bought on an ordinary trade and not on a T3 or T10. I'm happy to sit with my holdings until they announce, although that is not to say that my nerves will not be taking an absolute hammering along the way.

Tokyo

p.s. dexter - thanks for the confirmation

I have sold off today locking some profit...seems likely to go down further tomorrow. Now 88p

Thanx Dexter and Tokyo,

Well my heart does sink everytime the price goes down and i've come to the point that I dread looking at the computer screen. One can only wait and pray!!!!!! Good luck to all!!!

pets share price is being rerated, its found a top @ 1:60 and is now looking for a bottom ??, when a share is being rerated it will always go higher than it should and then lower than it should so for example if pet bottoms @80p the price should steadily rise to 1:20 and stay at this level until further news

Writing as a new boy on the block! Invested / gambled 5K+ at average 128p a few days ago. So, what is my reaction to the share price coming back. Not a problem! May be an opportunity. Have just got up-to-date with the bb and observed the agonising going on. My perspective:

1. Readers do know a surprising amount about the current position. In particular, Tokyo's posts give us a pretty well up-to-date scenario. This is, in one respect, comforting. In another respect it could be worrying. What competition is there? Competition would not be doing their job if they were not aware of these posts. It will help their own trading position. They could also 'suggest' that PET were breaking confidences and attempt to undermine their relationship of confidence with the Iraq minsitry. On balance, I suspect that PET are in a contract negotiation stage and have seen off the competition (what I would call an A1 prospect). As a sales manager, I have seen too many A1 contracts fall through, so would not spend the money in advance. The other thing that we need to hold in mind is that we are dealing with the Irish - everything is up-front; their relationship with others is key; but they may just be a tad optimistic (by the way, my in-laws were Irish and I loved them both dearly, most of all my mother-in-law!).

2. Looking at the trades for the last few days reveals a surprising fact. Buys and sells are largely in balance although the price has fallen 35%. What is the explanation? A suggestion was made above that the MM's, those sinister people who do not venture into the light of day, are locking away stock so that they can make a mint when the announcement(s) is/are made. I 'believe' that these are honest 'brokers' who are trying to make a decent living like the rest of us. The most likely explantion is that they have brought the price down to match buying and selling in order to make a turn and also to avoid holding too much stock (would underline that if I had the facility available). So how do you interpret the trading. You only need to read this thread for the explanation: (1) Some people are sitting on big profits and want to take some or all because of the downside risk; (2) Some people are of nervous disposition and only just realising that this is a form of gambling; (3) The price has had to be brought down to encourage buys to match the sells - we are in a sort of limbo land where the dangling carrot is moving ahead of us at the same speed as that at which we are riding.

3. So where the price from here? Lets say we are two weeks away from a decision. If there is no decision, or if it is negative, (10% for an A1 prospect) then you lose most or all of your money. If you can't stand that 10% probability (underlined) then sell tomorrow. If there is a positive decision, which will certainly include spreading the risk at a % of the value to PET, then there will be financials quotedto assess the value. I suspect it can't be worth less than 250p which would put it on a par with SEY (any reason for it to be more or less, anyone?), i.e. a cap. of 150m. Could be a lot more but Tokyo's posts suggest of that order. So it is 90% an upside of the order of 200%, 10% a downside of, lets say, nil. Many of us are comfortable with playing the risks. If you are not, take your profits now! If you are, run them!

My own position is to give it another day, anyway, see where the price has gone and then, quite possibly, transfer some of the equivalent 'risk' funds invested / 'somewhat less gambled' in PCI and/or SEY to PET,

Good luck, all! You need to say that to fellow gamblers!

Eric

Have seen all this before. the dramatic increase was unsustainable. I have sympathy with all those who bought in at the top. We have all made mistakes like these in the past. looking at the chart I think it will go down a lot more. I was considering buying these on the way up when they rose from 29+ to 40+. Even this rise was too much too quick and was unsustainable. after this I took it off my watch list as i knew what was going to happen. a massive rise followed by a massive drop and plenty punters getting burnt.

Buy high, buy low it doesn't matter until the announcement is made. If they win the contract which everybody hopes the shares will fly.

I wish I could agree the shares will fly I really do I really do but the over-speculation has reached such a feverpitch that I doubt the stock will get even get back to 150p even with positive news. I have no interest either way as would never invest behind such a volatile and unpredictable stock in such wild trading. Agree with Azhar's comments - unsustainable and not helped by quite wild unsubstantiated ramps - long watched the am boards with a high degree of respect for posters who really understand the fundamentals of the market but this thread is a shocking reminder of the perils of falling for the hype. Amazing to read all the personalised David Horgan emails - this guy clearly has a lot of spare time on his hands, right.

You can't apply TA to a share which has went up on rumour, the same applies when it spiked up.I still say because the shift in ratio is to the sellers the mms will allow Pet to consolodate not far from this level for now.

joehargan
totally agree,an excellent post.no bias just level headed.
however if a contract were announced in PETS favour i do beleive it would beat recent end of day highs,but only just.the downside in the next month with ramadam looming,the possibility of no news could be disasterous.this share has been ramped to the hilt.myself bought57p sold 106p,may throw some into RAB its just broken out and with a 40% holding in FOGL who float tommorrow

I think you are all very brave!

Appears to have found it's floor at about 82p maybe time to start buying a few.

It's called investor relations, not a whim but an obligation for all list plc to keep their share holders informed. David Horgan's failure to contain his glee at the potential of landing the catch of a life time, and make no mistake this could be the gusher that will make both Petrel and him BILLIONS, certainly within the decade, must surley be allowed to share some of his good news with 'fellow investors'. I stand to gain but a small percentage on that potential but the thought fills most of my working day--to the detrement of my portfolio, so please don't be hard on DH and hurry with the SIGNING!!!

Mr Horgan if you are listening out there, it would be nice to relaease an RNS for your long awaiting share holders, as it would help calm the SP and everybodys nerves down a little!!!

Much appreciated!!!

I have to agree with seawallwalker (p.576).

skids

Thought about this one as it started to spike, but decided to leave alone. Unless good news is released soon and looking at the Chart and previous trend / support, I think 60p could be an entry point, or even as low as 40p. All IMHO of course.

Good luck to all.

regards

PTH

Lets face it we are in the hands of the MMs they have continued to manipulate the price for several days now,(to a greater extent than considered normal)
To date dropping through 10% and holding it their for the close. this is a normal proceedure that prevents a outright crash, that an 80% drop in price would herald if done in one day. In this share I am confident that the greed factor is the driving force.
Today they seem to be holding on to 8% down although this looks likely to rise to 10% given the buy/sell ratio. The Buy/Sell ratio, yes a complete mystery, was running at 2/1 on the buy side earlier and the share price down by 14% percent???
At the current ratio the buy/sell would need to be in double figures before the share showed a 'flat' never mind a gain!!!

Scottie

I don't doubt that the MMs have their own agenda, but whenever a stock falls, (or doesn't rise), you can guarantee that on every thread on every BB they will be accused of manipulating the price. Personally, I think this one is quite simple, the stock became overbought very quickly, profit taking commenced, driving the price lower, some of those who bought in at higher prices will have panicked, adding to the downward pressure. You can't rely on the buys and sells to give an accurate indication of sentiment, (due to the software algorithm), so in IMHO, all the MMs are doing is trying to do what exactly their name suggests, make a market. At the moment, they are having to drop the price until it stabilises and they can balance their books. Afterall, nothing has really changed in the last week, since the price stood at 50pish, just rumours that a deal will be signed.

Regards

PTH

On the march again, could have just been a major tree shake.

Thats the first positive we've seen for a while again. Long may it last, and good luck to our man in Iraq this weekend.