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Dowgate Capital - Capitalising on the booming AIM market (DGT)     

overgrowth - 09 Feb 2005 20:52

Dowgate Capital (DGT) are sitting in the middle of a goldmine!

This company through their sole trading arm City Financial Associates are looking to take full advantage of the "booming" AIM market this year. Dowgate provide NOMAD (NOMinated ADvisor) services to AIM companies and also have full Corporate Broker status which means that they can fund placements on behalf of the companies they represent.

On first sight, the fact that Dowgate exist in the often veiled financial services sector makes you think twice about investing in company such as this because it would be impossible to understand what they were doing - however, think again!

DGT bring new companies to the AIM (Alternative Investment Market). For each new company "floated" on AIM, they take arrangement fees when acting as NOMAD. After the company is launched then for a nice steady earner DGT get another healthy chunk of cash every year for looking after them (note that all AIM companies must have a nominated adviser - thereby securing a ready source of recurring income).

Because DGT also act as a Corporate broker they can get a very healthy percentage for arranging placement of shares with insititutions before a new company floats. In addition, because placements come outside the sphere of yearly NOMAD work, they can also gain healthy percentages of placements which companies may need to make throughout the year when they need a quick injection of cash to speed growth.

Current NOMADships: 28 companies represented (gives recurring income of approx 480,000 per year)

Current on-going Brokerage agreements: 19 companies (income depends on placements)

For flotations, depending on the size of a company, fees charged will be anything from 50,000 to 100,000+ For placements (the real earner), DGT get anything from 3% to around 12% of the TOTAL AMOUNT RAISED - For example a new company raising 3M though a placement will earn DGT anything from 90,000 to 360,000 ! These figures are indicative as actual deals all differ due to circumstances and DGT sometimes take payment in shares - they still have a tasty chunk of Setstone shares and when this Russian exploration company comes back to AIM, predictions are that the share price will rocket. Note that the amount that this little company can earn in fees is huge and every new deal that comes through we know will contribute another healthy chunk into the bottom line. The good news with every new floatation means that it's another chunk of recurring revenue which could go on for years, with DGT having to do very little. New clients gained in 2005 are:

Mediazest (NOMAD & broker) Elite Strategies (NOMAD) Process Handling (NOMAD) Poland Investment Fund (NOMAD) Nanotech Energy (NOMAD & broker) Archimedia Ventures (NOMAD & broker) Red Leopard Holdings (NOMAD) Alba Mineral Resources (NOMAD & broker) Intandem Films (NOMAD & broker) Motive Television (NOMAD) IncaGold (NOMAD) Sportswinbet (NOMAD & Broker) Infoscreen Networks (NOMAD & Broker) Mark Kingsley (NOMAD & Broker) Croatia Ventures (NOMAD & Broker) Pantheon Leisure (NOMAD) Firenze Ventures (Ofex Advisor) FlightStore Group (NOMAD & Broker) Euro Capital Projects (NOMAD) Pearl Street Holdings (NOMAD) Worldwide Natural Resources (Ofex Advisor) Dovedale Ventures (Ofex Advisor) Other 2005 work completed:Neptune-Calculus VCT offer for subs of up to 12 million Advisory work for TGM on London Bus disposal for 20.4M Advisory work for Creightons on property disposal Advisory work for Hampton Trust on company restructuring Advisory work for Interbulk Investments on acquisition of Inbulk Advisory work for Fundamental-e Investments on two disposals Advisory work for Designer Vision re: Design Rights against Centurion Electronics

Click Here for fundamentals and profit projections.
Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=DGT&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=DGT&Si

petralva - 20 May 2005 12:03 - 567 of 2787

snakey - 20 May 2005 15:32 - 568 of 2787

what sort of game do the mm`s play ?? million buys and price goes down 0.05p with only one small sell on the board? what is that all about ?? the only consolation is that it`s a good price to add to holding as it will "va va voom" very soon.

snakey - 20 May 2005 15:41 - 569 of 2787

and a p.s., as I can`t get 100k for less than 0.43p ??

overgrowth - 20 May 2005 15:47 - 570 of 2787

snakey - I agree with the va va voom soon - looks as though year end profits will be "materially exceeding our expectations".

Where's stockdog ? I'd like to know what profit comes out of the model now - looks as though we could be up passing 1p sooner than we previously thought.

moneyplus - 20 May 2005 15:49 - 571 of 2787

What hapened at 2pm---someone must have sold 5 shares !! lol.

overgrowth - 20 May 2005 15:53 - 572 of 2787

Probably just the MMs buying lunch - looks as though they left a sandwich on the offer key also and it accidentally got knocked down a tick lol!

stockdog - 20 May 2005 16:41 - 573 of 2787

Putting thisintothe model makes a small improvement.

The Annual retainer and transaction fee add nothing, but reduce the number of remaining new clients requirede to hit target to 4 NOMAD only and 5 NOMAD/Broker.

The 3m to be raised at 3.5% commission adds 70k to the revenue projection - since I only estimate 1m raise for each new broker client.

So I'm showing projected revenues of 1,871,000 less overheads of 1,200,000 - net pre/post-tax profiit of 671,000. PE of 4.12 should be 12 (in recent AIM climate, not as high as 15 to be conservative) gives SP mid of 1.165, or SP bid 1.05.

So no big increase in estiamted SP, but significant increase in likelihood of achieving it. 8 NOMAD only new clients, 6 NOMAD/Broker new clients and 6 other transactions for existing clients so far this year. Need only another 4 NOMAD only and 5 NOMAD/Broker in next 7 months to hit my full year target. Must be very nearly time to upgrade this target. Also no value placed on warrants/shareholdings in clients.

Conservatively 1p bid by Xmas (could be a fair bit more) - DYOR

sd

overgrowth - 20 May 2005 16:47 - 574 of 2787

Cheers sd - great analysis - looking good now!

stockdog - 20 May 2005 16:53 - 575 of 2787

Sorry - got PE wrong, it's 3.31 should be 12, gives SP mid 1.45, bid 1.30 bid - Up my target from 1.0p to 1.25p by Xmas!

sd

overgrowth - 20 May 2005 16:55 - 576 of 2787

even better!

snakey - 20 May 2005 18:30 - 577 of 2787

sd, work it out again and see if you can get it up to 5p which will make my weekend, as I`m off golfing in Ireland for 8 days again and it may help to compensate for the rain and the wind !!

ptholden - 20 May 2005 19:20 - 578 of 2787

snakey

thought you might have put your name down for the Golf Challenge?

PTH

ptholden - 20 May 2005 20:30 - 579 of 2787

sd

My calculations are probably not quite as sophisticated as your 'model'. However, my calculations using AIM Admission/Placing, NOMAD and Broker fees add up to 1,200,000 (incl of Inca & Sportswinbet). This figure does not include any other additional fees for advisory work that may have been completed, but does include the NOMAD / Broker fees for all clients throughout the year. So, even making an allowance for incresed expenses on last year due to increased activity, I would suggest that any work CFA complete following Sportswinbet, will pretty much go to the bottom line.

Personally, I am quite excited that during the year 2004, CFA completed just seven AIM admissions and placings, but so far during 2005 the number will have increased to 11 (again, inclusive of Inca and Sportswinbet).

My own figures do not include any income that may be derived from Warrants or Share options, of which there are now quite a few.

IMHO, CFA is now seriously undervalued and judging by the trades going through in the last week or so, perhaps an order is being filled which may be holding the SP back. There seemed to be a small tree shake today to encourage a few sellers, it actually had the reverse effect, enticing at least one buyer if not two, resulting in the bid reverting to its previous price. Had I not been umming and aaring about selling another stock, I would have taken advantage of 0.39p myself. I will be keeping a close eye on proceedings next week to see if aanother opportunity presents itself!!

DYOR etc.

regards

PTH

overgrowth - 20 May 2005 21:24 - 580 of 2787

pth - I think you've got spurious 0.

If projected turnover was 12m - I for one would be buying millions more shares at this price lol!

Having said that, I know that sd has been erring on the side of caution which is great because any surprises that we get are sure to be pleasant ones.

The core business is coming in at a consistent and healthy rate which will give us sizeable profits at year end and a share price well in excess of 1p, after that we've got acquisitions to look forward to.

The new guys in charge really seem to know their stuff, if they're as good at snapping up businesses on the cheap as they are at gaining core business then we're all going to be in for a very prosperous future.

ptholden - 20 May 2005 22:02 - 581 of 2787

og, whoops edited the additional zero. Must have been wishful thinking!

snakey - 20 May 2005 22:23 - 582 of 2787

pth, would love to but this is the only proper days off I have got this year and
it really is difficult to shoot an extra couple of days away just at the moment.
good luck to all of you who are playing though.
I mentioned before, but maybe CFP could put up a prize ???

overgrowth - 20 May 2005 22:36 - 583 of 2787

How about a clutch of old Setstone shares that they don't know what to do with ?

stockdog - 20 May 2005 23:07 - 584 of 2787

pth - I agree to within 50k your revenue estimates to date plus another 1ook xactional fees for exissting clients and another 542,500 to come to get my total figure of 1,871,000 for 2005.

Yes they are undervalued, but I doubt any MMs or brokers are doing the figures like we are on this stock with such a small free float/market cap.

sd

overgrowth - 20 May 2005 23:15 - 585 of 2787

sd - and that's how the under"dogs" make a killing - get in on a good thing before the big boys catch wind.

EWRobson - 20 May 2005 23:58 - 586 of 2787

My top ups at 0.43p were a bit premature but better to be in at a decent level than miss the boat/car/train/aeroplane/space shuttle - take your pick!

sd - you are needed on the MDW thread; they think they have another SEO which is possible but it needs a bit of objectivity to determine an appropriate cap. Special request from moneyplus to bring my dog with me! They know he's the one who can sniff out a bargain.

Eric
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