ellio
- 15 May 2006 09:10
The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.
If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.
cynic
- 09 Mar 2007 13:53
- 572 of 1564
here is the transcript of the US employment figures ..... i have highlighted the bits i think are most interesting ..... it could be well argued that the severe slump in construction jobs is a reflection of a similar fall in house-building starts, which i would have thought was a firm indication of a creaking economy.
US February non-farm payrolls up 97,000, unemployment rate falls to 4.5 pct
AFX
WASHINGTON (AFX) - US employers added fewer employees to their payrolls last month than in each of the prior two months as construction hiring plummeted, the Labor Department said today. Still, the unemployment rate fell slightly in February.
The economy added 97,000 jobs in February, essentially in line with the 100,000 jobs economists had expected from the survey of employer payrolls.
It's the slowest payroll growth since January 2005, when 95,000 jobs were added. The unemployment rate, taken from a separate survey of households, fell slightly to 4.5 pct in the month from 4.6 pct.
The drop was led by a 62,000 drop in construction jobs, the sharpest decline in the sector since 1991.
In December and January, the number of jobs added was revised up by 55,000 to a cumulative two-month total of 372,000.
Average hourly wages rose 0.4 pct in February, or 0.06 usd, to 17.16 usd.
Average hourly earnings have risen 4.1 pct in the past year, unchanged from the 12 months leading up to January.
The average workweek fell slightly to 33.7 pct in February from 33.8 in the prior month.
In the past twelve months to February, non-farm payrolls rose by 2 mln. For all of 2006, non-farm payrolls rose a revised 2.26 mln.
steveo
- 09 Mar 2007 15:04
- 573 of 1564
cynic, in answer to post 551, I am still in at the mo and have had a bit of a spree adding to some stocks that in retrospect I should have sold and bought back, but I'm sure that applies to most of us. However the ones am picking are backed by legislation or expected increase in interest such as wng, chp, ptr, iph, pele,kmr,atcg
The market seems to have settled quicker than last May but there is certainly more fear in the air than a month ago, although risks have been well documented for a while.
The non-farm pay-rolls were quite benign, except construction which could be predicted considering US housing market. That has to be the key to future fluctuations but I generally see a mildly bullish outlook when looking at the global predictions. I think a period of slower rises or even static trend levels but with occasional volatility. I think ftse will end up about 6500 for year end at a complete guess, as there are just too many things that can happen.
So there are my colours, blue with a mild hint of green and the odd red spot that's hard to shift over the next 9 months. However that is my humble and probably wrong opinion, so I guess I could be one of the crowd. Any other thoughts?
cynic
- 09 Mar 2007 15:08
- 574 of 1564
i am incapable of sensible thought! .... however, as hoped rather than predicted, Wall Street is now having second thoughts about those figures ..... as for the markets settling down quickly, i suspect you are in the minority to believe that ..... my view is that there is still plenty of nastiness ahead
Big Al
- 09 Mar 2007 15:17
- 575 of 1564
I think they sold the bounce at resistance? We'll see how the session ends.
HARRYCAT
- 09 Mar 2007 16:38
- 576 of 1564
All in all a reasonable result for those of us trading normal stocks.
Perhaps not so good for the spreadbetters, but in the short term confidence seems to be back, so hoping for a moderate rise next week.
My local broker is of the opinion that 6500 on the FTSE is about right. Over that figure & he thinks it will not be sustainable.
steveo
- 09 Mar 2007 16:55
- 577 of 1564
I agree about short term nastiness but it appears at this stage to be less volatile than May, tempting fate saying that!!
Stan
- 09 Mar 2007 17:00
- 578 of 1564
Caution still required.
hlyeo98
- 09 Mar 2007 17:13
- 579 of 1564
No gamble, no gains
Big Al
- 09 Mar 2007 17:15
- 580 of 1564
Spreadbetters did OK HARRY. ;-))) Not so sure your broker is right though - they rarely are. LOL!
I've done nicely out of catching a few oversold stocks, but it may not be long before I take the quick easy short term cash. Less than 2 months 'til May, when they sell and go away.
cynic
- 09 Mar 2007 17:24
- 581 of 1564
be interesting to if that dictum holds true this year ...... if the market has still not recovered its poise, then it may well not be the case
Big Al
- 09 Mar 2007 17:45
- 582 of 1564
Fun, isn't it, trying to second guess the moves of the masses? Required reading below. ;-0
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds by Charles Mackay
cynic
- 09 Mar 2007 19:19
- 583 of 1564
the euphoria evaporates .... Wall Street now down on the day having been up by about 60 at one point ..... watch out!
steveo
- 09 Mar 2007 20:16
- 584 of 1564
It didn't last did it. How will asia react come monday? Could be a rocky week ahead.
Re May, will there be a rally until then followed by a more bearish market or will it trade sideways for a while as an average with regular volatility as last summer? Or down then up or just down? Wish I knew..gonna sit on the fence on that one.
Keeps your brain active this game doesn't it?
Kivver
- 10 Mar 2007 16:02
- 585 of 1564
so glad im a glass half-full type at this time, made a nice profit topping up thanks to all the bears with negative sentiments, thanks guys.
cynic
- 10 Mar 2007 16:16
- 586 of 1564
worked in both directions depending on your timing
Strawbs
- 12 Mar 2007 13:31
- 587 of 1564
Don't rule the bears out just yet. The original sell off appeared from nowhere and the next one might just do the same.
Strawbs.
Who's glass is totally empty. :-)
HARRYCAT
- 13 Mar 2007 11:02
- 588 of 1564
It would seem that cynic's forecast of "up & down like a whore's knickers" is coming true. Many stocks seem to be taking a hit for no particular reason.
Does anyone know if the first week in april is a sell-off time prior to the end of the tax year?
Big Al
- 13 Mar 2007 11:11
- 589 of 1564
Sometimes, although often you see a bounce as all the end of year ISA / pension / fund money pours in. The whole thing could fly until April 6th in that case.
Toss a coin? ;-))
Strawbs
- 13 Mar 2007 11:20
- 590 of 1564
Probably has something to do with the Yen strengthening again......carry trade fears added to yesterday's "sub prime" problems....
Strawbs.
Big Al
- 13 Mar 2007 11:27
- 591 of 1564
Iceberg, of, tip, the
Please re-arrange for the financial nuclear scenario with regards carry trade. ;-))