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Northern Rock (NRK)     

irlee57 - 13 Aug 2007 09:03

any comments, thoughts, on this stock.

Strawbs - 02 Oct 2007 11:48 - 573 of 1029

I assume (but could be wrong) that people (institutions) who have lent out shares (for the purposes of shorting) have called them in (i.e. want them back).

Only guessing though....

Perhaps someone better informed could comment.

Strawbs

fliper - 02 Oct 2007 13:54 - 574 of 1029

These are high risk , money can be made but only if you get in at the right price . I am glad that i was on the golf course yesterday , otherwise i my had got in at 1.30 .

maddoctor - 02 Oct 2007 14:14 - 575 of 1029

the rumour is a rescue at 175

skinny - 02 Oct 2007 14:46 - 576 of 1029

Looking at the rule 8 RNS - Barclays have been busy.

explosive - 02 Oct 2007 16:57 - 577 of 1029

Stop loss hit at around lunch time, thats me out the game.... Will watch with interest....

cynic - 02 Oct 2007 17:17 - 578 of 1029

i have kept all my short positions open, but with a guaranteed stop - well worth the very small premium .... if this rumoured 175 bid is shown to have any substance, then sp will be rocket, but i shall be out with a very nice profit, albeit only 40/60% of what it was notionally at say 9 o'clock this morning ..... if the rumour is groundless, and there is certainly no follow-up statement, then sp will plunge once more

Big Al - 02 Oct 2007 18:04 - 579 of 1029

I've mentione dthat 175p area was significant 10 days ago. It was awhile before she plummeted through. There's something significant there anyway. Bigger volume today than we've had since last Monday, which may be another indicator.

As for me, I'm completely flat NRK. Took a hit in the SIPP, but made a fair bit of it up trading both ways last week via spreadbets and CFDs.

Congrats to those who took the longer term short route as opposed to us in/out types. Nice profits, but I suspect the game's almost over now.



Who's next though, I wonder. ;-))

cynic - 02 Oct 2007 18:42 - 580 of 1029

bigger volume today will prob just be an indication of peeps taking profits or protecting their position - much the same thing.

with regard to this rumoured bid, it is just that, but even if true in principal, it is certainly not yet a formal approach and the books have clearly to be opened up ...... were it otherwise, an rns would have been mandatory.

tomorrow promises another interesting day!

skinny - 03 Oct 2007 08:08 - 581 of 1029

Northern Rock to meet JC Flowers for takeover talks


LONDON (Thomson Financial) - JC Flowers is to meet advisers of Northern Rock
for talks that could lead to the embattled bank opening its books to the private
equity group, the Financial Times reported.
Flowers, founded by former Goldman Sachs banker Chris Flowers, has secured
about 15 bln stg of funding that could be used for a takeover, the newspaper
claimed.
The private equity group is interested in keeping Northern Rock as a whole
entity and is understood to have received funding commitments from blue chip
banks, the FT said.
The cash could be used to refinance part of the estimated 20 bln stg that
analysts believe the bank will need to raise in the next year, the report said.
Northern Rock shares have lost more than 80 pct of their value since the
bank revealed on Sept 14 that this summer's global credit crunch had forced it
to seek emergency funding from the Bank of England.
On Tuesday night, the shares closed up 3.5 pence at 135.6 p amid market
rumours an unidentified party is preparing a rescue bid of 175 pence per share.
philip.waller@thomson.com


hlyeo98 - 03 Oct 2007 08:12 - 582 of 1029

I think it will not sustain above 145p today.

cynic - 03 Oct 2007 08:30 - 583 of 1029

i tend to agree hyleo, though my stop was hit (145) and i am now out with a very acceptable profit ...... there is certainly no indication that the shareholders will ultimately receive anything once all is unwound ..... indeed, i would not have been at all surprised had the NRK opened down by as much as it opened up! ...... anyway, no time to enter the fray in either direction for the moment, and perhaps not at all

Guscavalier - 03 Oct 2007 09:17 - 584 of 1029

Reference to hewittalan6 post 563, Mortgage Express is wholly owned by Bradford and Bingley.

cynic - 03 Oct 2007 10:28 - 585 of 1029

it seems to me that, always subject to an unequivocal offer being put on the table, once sp gets above about 160 it becomes a progressively more interesting short.

hlyeo98 - 03 Oct 2007 13:29 - 586 of 1029

I will still hang on to my short as I believe this will go back to 120p.

cynic - 03 Oct 2007 13:56 - 587 of 1029

you may be right, but that's pretty brave or even foolhardy ...... for myself, i am happy to have banked my profit, even if cross with myself for trying to be just too cute and losing a large slab of potential profit ...... however, i would have though it ulikley that any bid will be greater than 175, which is why i suggested that shorting when sp is >160 becomes progressively more enticing, especially if nothing absolute is on the table at that time ...... it is not impossible for this to happen as there must surely be an awful lot of short positions closing by friday night

halifax - 03 Oct 2007 15:25 - 588 of 1029

Cant see HMG giving any sort of guarantees to J C Flowers if they bid for NRK . If no other bids in the offing NRK is a dead duck and straight into receivership. Shareholders would in these circumstances end up as they usually do with nothing.IMHO.

cynic - 03 Oct 2007 15:30 - 589 of 1029

that was certainly my logic for going short in the first place ....... however, there are so many unknowns at the moment that it is very difficult to call ...... i suppose the question is whether or not the upside is greater or less than the downside ...... i would guess that top is 175/190 and the downside zero or perhaps more realistically 50/100 ...... therefore at 150, the balance is quite balanced!

halifax - 03 Oct 2007 15:40 - 590 of 1029

Agree but if you believe the amount required to fund NRK in order for them to survive over the next few months is 20billion who is going to pump in that amount without a government guarantee? The bounce has to be short covering before the final plunge.

cynic - 03 Oct 2007 15:44 - 591 of 1029

maybe ..... am just contemplating my navel on this issue at the moment

maddoctor - 03 Oct 2007 15:47 - 592 of 1029

and where does 20 billion come from?
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