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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

mg - 11 Jul 2006 08:18 - 5737 of 11056

No positions at the moment - 60 min MACD looking as if it might turn but not prepared to risk it - could well continue on its way down. Will take another look this afternoon.

Good luck to anyone feeling lucky :)

hilary - 11 Jul 2006 09:24 - 5738 of 11056

I'd say the bias is still with the bears, mg, but agree that it could go either way. Guess it's all on the trade balance in a few minutes time.

hilary - 11 Jul 2006 09:31 - 5739 of 11056

-6.75bn way over forecast

mg - 11 Jul 2006 15:43 - 5740 of 11056

Typical - too dodgy to call IMHO - upndown like a hooers drawers. Managed to sit on my trigger finger - I'll have to wait until another day - unless .......

hilary - 12 Jul 2006 10:28 - 5741 of 11056

Do you know many hooers then, mg?

:o)

mg - 13 Jul 2006 07:19 - 5742 of 11056

Hils
I couldn't possibly comment !!

This trading whilst "working" is a bit dodgy but manged a few pips from a short yesterday - which is still open and giving back some of the gains. Looking to close and reverse as the 60 minute MACD looks as if it's turning.

Off on a jolly to Warwick Business School today - will have my serious head on - if I can find it. You can never remember where you put things in these turnip fields ;)

mg - (mighty gravitas)

mg - 13 Jul 2006 07:57 - 5743 of 11056

Reversed @ 340 - now off back to school - got my satchel packed and an apple for teacher.

On my best behaviour.......

mg - 13 Jul 2006 16:02 - 5744 of 11056

Back from school to find my limit triggered @ 440 :)

No more playing with it now - for a week !!

Harlosh - 13 Jul 2006 16:19 - 5745 of 11056

Well done again mg, a very profitble week by the sound of it.

My best week by far to date so I am resisting the temptation to trade again today but I did spot that double top and am kicking myself for not shorting it :-(

Mustn't be greedy though.

hilary - 14 Jul 2006 17:34 - 5746 of 11056

Thought I'd beat MM to it with the calendar this week.

It's the early birds who catch the worms.

:o)

MightyMicro - 14 Jul 2006 20:00 - 5747 of 11056

Well, I dunno. Anyone got a job for a redundant FX Fairy?

STORMCALLER - 15 Jul 2006 19:51 - 5748 of 11056

MM,

Re 5639.....barred access may have kept me out for a while.....but typical of your industry there is a back-door left ajar.....and I have found it...LOL

Hope all is well in your new "unemployed" state..:-)

SC

MightyMicro - 16 Jul 2006 00:14 - 5749 of 11056

Stormie: Welcome back! Glad to see you're still about.

mg - 17 Jul 2006 09:38 - 5750 of 11056

Harlosh - very profitable few weeks actually - Thanks !!!

And, at the risk of being accused of posting success after the event I just wanted to share this morning's (well Friday and this morning actually) little success.

Went short @365 on Friday - left it over the weekend - including moving my stops last night (naughty but nice) looked in this morning to see that it was bumbling along at or around the position - decided to move my stops back down and set a limit @ 265 - which was triggered for a nice gain.

I'm supposed to be wending my way oooop north - and not trading BUT couldn't resist. No more until Friday now :(

mg

Harlosh - 17 Jul 2006 10:12 - 5751 of 11056

Excellent trading again mg - only managed +50 from this mornings fall - I need to eat more shredded wheat I think :-)

Harlosh - 18 Jul 2006 09:09 - 5752 of 11056

Anyone know if todays UK CPI news at 9.30 is likely to have a significant impact on price?

Similarly for the US PPI news.

hilary - 18 Jul 2006 09:16 - 5753 of 11056

It depends whether the numbers are inline or not, Harlosh. CPI is a measure of inflation and higher inflation = higher chance of rising interest rates = strength in that particular currency.

chocolat - 18 Jul 2006 09:17 - 5754 of 11056

Producer Price Index
Definition
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a measure of the average price level for a fixed basket of capital and consumer goods paid by producers.
Why Investors Care?
The PPI measures prices at the producer level - before they are passed along to consumers. Since the producer price index measures prices of consumer goods and capital equipment, a portion of the inflation at the producer level gets passed through to the consumer price index (CPI). By tracking price pressures in the pipeline, investors can anticipate inflationary consequences in coming months.

Investors need to monitor inflation closely. An individual investor who understands the process of inflation and how inflation influences the markets will no doubt benefit over those investors that don't understand the consequences of inflation.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how data such as the PPI influence the markets - and your investments.

If someone borrows $100 dollars from you today and promises to repay it in one year with interest, how much interest should you charge? The answer depends largely on inflation, because you know that the $100 won't be able to buy the same amount of goods and services a year from now, as it does today. If you were in a country where prices doubled every couple of months, you might want to charge 400% interest for a total payoff of $500 at the end of the year. In the United States, the PPI tells us that prices were rising about 4 to 5 percent a year through the summer of 2005. While the CPI was rising less rapidly during this period, you would want to take into account the higher inflation rates evident at earlier stages of processing when you were determining what interest rate to charge simply to recoup your purchasing power within the next 12 months. You might want to add in one or two percentage points to cover default risk and the opportunity cost, but inflation remains the key variable in what interest rate you would charge.

Inflation (along with default risk and opportunity cost) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates accordingly. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking the trends in inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform.

Harlosh - 18 Jul 2006 09:27 - 5755 of 11056

Hilary, Choc, many thanks.

Wasn't sure you were still around Hilary. Thanks again.

hilary - 18 Jul 2006 09:31 - 5756 of 11056

annualised +2.5% higher than expected
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