The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

Appears to have found it's floor at about 82p maybe time to start buying a few.

It's called investor relations, not a whim but an obligation for all list plc to keep their share holders informed. David Horgan's failure to contain his glee at the potential of landing the catch of a life time, and make no mistake this could be the gusher that will make both Petrel and him BILLIONS, certainly within the decade, must surley be allowed to share some of his good news with 'fellow investors'. I stand to gain but a small percentage on that potential but the thought fills most of my working day--to the detrement of my portfolio, so please don't be hard on DH and hurry with the SIGNING!!!

Mr Horgan if you are listening out there, it would be nice to relaease an RNS for your long awaiting share holders, as it would help calm the SP and everybodys nerves down a little!!!

Much appreciated!!!

I have to agree with seawallwalker (p.576).

skids

Thought about this one as it started to spike, but decided to leave alone. Unless good news is released soon and looking at the Chart and previous trend / support, I think 60p could be an entry point, or even as low as 40p. All IMHO of course.

Good luck to all.

regards

PTH

Lets face it we are in the hands of the MMs they have continued to manipulate the price for several days now,(to a greater extent than considered normal)
To date dropping through 10% and holding it their for the close. this is a normal proceedure that prevents a outright crash, that an 80% drop in price would herald if done in one day. In this share I am confident that the greed factor is the driving force.
Today they seem to be holding on to 8% down although this looks likely to rise to 10% given the buy/sell ratio. The Buy/Sell ratio, yes a complete mystery, was running at 2/1 on the buy side earlier and the share price down by 14% percent???
At the current ratio the buy/sell would need to be in double figures before the share showed a 'flat' never mind a gain!!!

Scottie

I don't doubt that the MMs have their own agenda, but whenever a stock falls, (or doesn't rise), you can guarantee that on every thread on every BB they will be accused of manipulating the price. Personally, I think this one is quite simple, the stock became overbought very quickly, profit taking commenced, driving the price lower, some of those who bought in at higher prices will have panicked, adding to the downward pressure. You can't rely on the buys and sells to give an accurate indication of sentiment, (due to the software algorithm), so in IMHO, all the MMs are doing is trying to do what exactly their name suggests, make a market. At the moment, they are having to drop the price until it stabilises and they can balance their books. Afterall, nothing has really changed in the last week, since the price stood at 50pish, just rumours that a deal will be signed.

Regards

PTH

On the march again, could have just been a major tree shake.

Thats the first positive we've seen for a while again. Long may it last, and good luck to our man in Iraq this weekend.

Mr Horgan is packing his bags for the weekend trip and the share price is already improving!!!

Exactly "making a market" different from manipulation??
Quite right..No news, except plenty of suggested reason for a posotive and why if the profit taking was endemic did'nt the share price drop like a stone when at their highest?? that would be 'normal proceedure' or on 1 day between then and now. instead of the bleeding of the 10%+ on a daily basis. , although again quite right the share price had soared from the low of a couple of weeks, but not right on rumour only, RNS statement from Petrel was the reason.
Don't get me wrong I appreciate your comments but don't have to agree.

Good 'profit taking' for the future to all.

have been watching this stock for several months though have not bought, but i must admit its been busier than 99%of other stocks on the market,

I hold some shares in PET, thought that at the low price I should get some more but am unable to as the site I use for dealing (Halifax)is not responding (makes a change, not) and says I can't buy 1000 or even as low as 500 shares. No wonder I am changing banks. Does anyone else have this problem with Halifax or is it to do with the security on the library computer I use as I am waiting to have the internet installed at home?

Scottie

Quite right we don't have to agree. And I am pleased for holders that the downtrend has been reversed, quite dramtically today. But just as a riposte to your last post. I think you will find on careful reading I did not say that 'profit taking was endemic', merely that it was taking place. The price didn't drop like a stone, beacuse there wasn't any bad news to support such a fall. The price drifted because of profit taking, uncertaintity, and investors losing their nerve. You can argue the case for ever if MMs make a market or manipulate, but at the end of the day they will look after number one. Interstingly, if you read the Traders Thread, they hardly ever talk about MMs, they seem to accept the way things work and get on with it. However, on this side of the house, everytime a stock doesn't go in the right direction, conspiracy theories abound as there must be someone to blame. Don't get me wrong Scottie, I understand that games are played and not to our advantage, but if a stock tanks on succesive days there are generally other reasons for that fall, (sentiment for one!).

I hope this upward trend is maintained.

regards

PTH

I am surprised at the Halifax they are generally one better banks although to be honest never traded with them,
quite poss' the library comp'
In advance we welcome you aboard make sure you bring a your seat belt and be prepared for to experience sea sickness from the rocky ride.
good luck

I bought as I've said at 159.75p and nobody is to blame but myself - hoping to ride the emotional wave. Yes I was hoping to daytrade this stock as i had never researched it. I would like to say, and by all means disagree, I think the announcment by David Horgan, about possible contracts was badly handled and incomplete. I believe a time scale should have been part of any press release because infact,their isn't one is their? I think DH's recent comment is "it would take time." A fuller statement may have prevented this speculative bubble as it surely is. We are now seeing the MMs at their best, making a market, enticing the buyers back in, because yesterday was the danger of sellers taking over. Hope those Iraqi's didn't just come for a Guiness . z

Ziblot - you must have had a terrible ride this week buying in at that level, this stock has such a potentially huge up-side / downside that it is not really one to be day-traded as far too much risk, as for your comment about their mis-timed rns, well you are not the only one to have thought that, but come on it was price sensitive information and had to be released.

Another DH e-mail on this very subject was posted over on the advfn thread, and answers most questions about the rns -


Just got this response from David Horgan :


On the contrary, we were reluctant to say anything. But talking it through with our Nominated Advisor and the board we agreed that the development was price sensitive and must be shared equally with all shareholders: the Ministry used the phrase 'finalize', after all. Our duty is to state facts. It's the market's job to react and assess.
We have a senior Iraqi Ministry of Oil delegation in Ireland now and they have not objected to any press comment. On the contrary, they want to show that work can be done.

I suspect that such BBcommentary is simply shenanigans by short sellers along the lines of recent BB announcements of my death. In fact such stories were premature and I anyway am unlikely to die in two separate countries on two separate occasions.

Free markets are a balance of bulls and bears. People talk their book. I have no problem with criticism, scepticism or shorting but wish it could be kept on a serious level.

David

-----Original Message-----
From:
Sent: 14 October 2004 08:11
To: David Horgan
Subject: RE: Petrel Resources


David,

This has been posted on a BB ,seems to sum up the position:









Why on earth did the company recently issue such a ramping RNS quoting that they had
been invited by the Iraqi Ministry of Oil for "an urgent and direct discussion to
finalise all technical and commercial matters"?

Surely by spinning it in such a way the company must have known that it would lead to
a rise in its shareprice to an unsustainable level and high volatility. But I suppose
somebody can always profit out of such volatility.

To quote things in such a way is gross ramping and shows that if the company needs to
communcate with the market in such a way to build up expectations and send the share
price rocketing as suckers buy in, then they are quite frankly a cowboy outfit. Are
they not confident enough just to let events run their natural course? Seemingly not
!!

These "discussions" as anybody who has been involved in the oil and gas business will
know are just a straight forward BCM (thats bid clarification meeting to the
uninitiated). By their very nature, namely that certain items are unclear and are
delaying the client comparing and evaluating the bids from the various bidding
parties, they are conducted on an urgent basis since failure to do so could delay the
award of the contract and the entire project schedule.

To dress it up in any other way as PET seem to have done and try to lead people to
believe that they are somehow the favourites to win these contracts when the bid
evaluation is ongoing is extremely amatuerish and underhanded.

Has it actually occured to anybody that the Iraqis are calling them in because the
bid they submitted was not properly prepared and was lacking detail in important
technical and commercial areas? It would not surprise me. Lets face it PET have no
experience whatsoever of tendering for large oil and gas contracts. Maybe the other
two bidders for these projects from the Emirates and Turkey have submitted better
bids and there is no need to call them in, although in reality there would almost
certainly be a reason to call them in as well to try to screw a bit more out of them.


I actually find it rather amusing how people on this thread seem to have the
perception that the Iraqis are a poor third world lot who PET with their great
expertise are going to help to everybody's (not least PET shareholders) benefit. The
fact is the personnel at the Iraqi Oil Ministry have overseen seen some pretty bigs
projects in their time and have far more expertise, both technical and commercial
than PET. How many such projects have PET been involved with before?

What would you do if you were the Iraqis? Select PET and have to endure ongoing
problems due to their lack of project execution and operational experience or do the
sensible thing and go for the Emirates or Turkish who with their proven track records
present no such problems.

I suspect the Iraqis are just using them as a stalking horse in an attempt to get a
better deal from the other bidders. Anyway they have probably had a good friendly
relationship with PET over the last few years in what has been a very difficult time
for their country. Maybe PET entertained them well and took them to Royal Ascot, the
FA Cup final and other places? I really don't know.

Either way I would be amazed if PET got any work in Iraq.

I also find it amusing that PET themselves are quoting figures on their website
(often repeated on this thread) of how much per share these contracts are worth and
what their shareprice should / would be.

Maybe its just me but I thought analysts (not that any would cover a company such as
PET) were supposed to do that sort of thing.

Certainly when it comes to to spin and trumpet blowing PET can surely have few
equals.

Following that ridiculous rocketing up of the share price which was fuelled solely on
hot air the market now making its judgement and looks to be pretty harsh.

Harsh, but certainly fair. Although there is chart support around 45p, which is as
yet untested, this could go much lower. Even now at 90p the company has a market cap
of 50 million with assets of less than 2 million.

I would not be surprised to see it drop below 10p once people wake up and smell the coffee !

Please could someone tell me exactlym what on earth is going on???
Contracts or no contracts!!!
Please help!!!

Rkausar - As reported before PET are arranging to go to Iraq this weekend, people piling back in,perhaps on the back of aleak as 10.30am started alot of buying, although inreality just punters hoping for the contract announcements sometime soon, as much as I believe in this stock, must say it is still a speculative buy

Tokyo

scottie7, went to Halifax branch and used their computer 2 hours later, site still not responding, have set up account with Abbey and got phone numbers to deal with halifax and abbey over the phone so I hope I dont miss out again, just frustrating to be certain a share will rise (as it did) and not be able to buy.
Chris