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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

Oakapples142 - 27 May 2005 09:14 - 58 of 1009


Skyhigh - that was my reaction - however, so far to-day buying and selling is about even - so perhaps most traders are in the dark

Fred1new - 27 May 2005 10:08 - 59 of 1009

Fundy Where are you when you are wanted. I think it RNS is referring to profit due to different taxation systems. Possibly due to some turnover coming under American taxation system. Don't know really. Experts please!!

Douggie - 27 May 2005 10:28 - 60 of 1009

Don't worry

have you forgot.....the watchword here........it will go UP...;o\

Fred1new - 27 May 2005 10:38 - 61 of 1009

Douggie In real life that only refers to my weight. But I think you are right.
Not worried just trembling!!
8-0

pachandl - 27 May 2005 11:51 - 62 of 1009

Most companies are voluntarily moving across to the new system - there is nothing to really worry about. The results for last year had already included a schedule of adjustment. The benefit is that the new system will be compulsorily adopted across the whole of the EC, enabling more accurate comparisons to be made between companies operating in different countries. Unfortunately the real comparison I want to make is between RTD and Cyber but the yanks use a different system!

Oakapples142 - 27 May 2005 13:20 - 63 of 1009


Thanks for that "pachandl"

overgrowth - 27 May 2005 14:36 - 64 of 1009

Looks like a lot of "bean shuffling" to me.

It appears that adopting IFRS standards will generally have the effect of increasing pre-tax profits stated and hence EPS, achieved by removing goodwill amortisation from the P&L and posting goodwill as an asset in the balance sheet - which in turn will increase net asset value.

Goodwill (the price above fair market value which you pay for an acquisition) which consists of managerial ability, reputation and experience generally increases in value over time. Hence, IFRS views goodwill as an investment rather than an intangible asset ever decreasing in value which has to be written off (amortised) each year for the next 40 years in the income statement.

Interesting that a "Monte Carlo" simulation is mentioned in the blurb as a valuing tool for performance criteria - do they spin the wheel and hope for the best lol!

Oakapples142 - 27 May 2005 14:41 - 65 of 1009

And it can always come to rest on ZERO eh "Overgrowth"

Fundamentalist - 27 May 2005 15:11 - 66 of 1009

Hi all - OG is spot on in his assessment.

This is a change in reporting standards which has been know about for a while and was referred to in the annual reports. Ultimately it relates to a non cash item and how it is treated in the balance sheet and released through the P&L account.

The three major items are that goodwill is not to be ammortised, that R&D costs are to be capitalised and then ammortised over project life, and that Long Term Incentive Plan grants are to be charged to the P&L.


The link below takes you to the presentation document on the ReD website


http://www.redplc.com/documents/Impact_of_the_conversion_from_UK_GAAP_to_IFRS.pdf

overgrowth - 31 May 2005 09:56 - 67 of 1009

I see that the sp is ticking up nicely with what looks like the start of a return of retail investor buying support (this time without any press/tip sheet tips!) - we've not seen this for a while - it could herald the start of the next bullish phase for RTD.

overgrowth - 02 Jun 2005 11:27 - 68 of 1009

An excellent post from amarcou (advfn) on the potential positive effect of currency rates on RTD:

"US$ was around 1.80 to 1.85 throughout 2004 and at 1.90 to May 2005.Its only in the last month it went to 1.81 ie some 5% improvement in 2005 but a lot less in relation to 2004.

The AUS$ was around 2.55 to 2.60 in 2004 and started 2005 at 2.50 and is now 2.41 a 6% improvement to 2004 and 3.7% in 2005.

Turnover in 2004 was 32m.

A 5% improvement in the exchange rates ( AUS and US) on an annualised basis will result in 1.6m increase in income and 1.12m PAT ( assuming 30% tax charge).

On 295m shares ( including o\s options etc) the EPS increases from 1.06 to 1.44p ie an increase of 36% from a 5% swing in the rates!!!

However the US$ was running at an average 1.90 to May 2005 so the increase now will have the ANNUALISED effect but for 2005 the increase will only be felt in the second half.

On costs, clearly the higher currency will impact on higher translated costs and this will lower the PAT and hence the EPS.

Dont know how much of the overheads are paid in UK and hence not subject to exchange movement but one can reduce the exchange increase to a net of say 2.5% on the 32m t\o.

Extra income of 800k being 560k PAT and therefore 0.19p increase on EPS bringing it to 1.25p from 1.06p ie an 18% increase on EPS."

Any comments Fundy ?

Fundamentalist - 02 Jun 2005 12:41 - 69 of 1009

OG

just read the post on advfn - all sounds perfectly logical to me though the EPS increase sounds high to me - i plan to try and have a look at the annual report later to decipher in what currency overhead costs are borne and also whether the company is fully exposed to interest rates or whether they have exchange rate hedging in place (in which case they will only receive part of the benefit)

also, the figures used are pre the acocunting changes recently, will prob look even better on the revised figures.

overgrowth - 02 Jun 2005 13:12 - 70 of 1009

Fundy - Good point re: the accounting changes enhancing this effect even further.

RTD is starting look very undervalued at this current price IMHO.

daves dazzlers - 03 Jun 2005 18:34 - 71 of 1009

My be 26 will be here next week ?

overgrowth - 03 Jun 2005 18:39 - 72 of 1009

dd - the retail solutions conference is next week - mind you don't miss the boat...

daves dazzlers - 03 Jun 2005 18:48 - 73 of 1009

Evening OG,,thanks for that i had forget about it,as to the recent falls in the sp that may well be down to the uncertainty at that conference,what do you think ?

overgrowth - 03 Jun 2005 18:55 - 74 of 1009

I think the recent falls are typical summer small cap. malaise in a sideways market - nothing do with with companies in particular.

The fundamentals for RTD have never looked better - see the posts above.

We could well find RTD making an announcement next week to boost their profile at the conference.

daves dazzlers - 03 Jun 2005 19:05 - 75 of 1009

Its looking good for rtd no doubt ,but its all about entry points for me OG and working towards 20%+ from there,

Good luck all,and time for a beer.

Fundamentalist - 03 Jun 2005 21:06 - 76 of 1009

OG

RTD have never to my knowledge ever announced anything that would effect the share price at a conference - i think they are properly run and hence any decent info comes via the RNS system. I think there is more chance of an uplift with the run up to the half yr results and any new contract announcements (which based on history they tend to keep 1 or 2 for results time)

must find the time to re-review the annual report with view to the accounting changes and interest rate fluctuations - will try to post a rebased best guess for next yr f/cast results

overgrowth - 03 Jun 2005 21:38 - 77 of 1009

Fundy - I agree that RTD won't be doing anything untoward, but don't be surprised if an RNS for a new contract appears on Monday morning lol!

There will definitely be an uplift with the run up to interims, as we've seen from the changes you mention, profits are going to substantial.

I'll be very interested to see your latest forecast.
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