Have you a Share with an interesting Trend or TA?
Looking around the various threads and especially Max up your Sip ISA and PEPs thread on Traders Room, I think it may be of interest to see what others have on their watch list or in their portfolios. Ie. Pondering over buying or selling.

Intimating reasons for buying or holding. I was thinking of addressing the thread to longer term trading ie anything over 3mins up to 5years.

If there is interest it may be reasonable to cut and paste some to the postings to a thread under the epic name for further follow up or discussion.

I will kick off with one of my failures, which I should have cut my losses on. But to a certain degree is still a free ride as I sold at the peak to buy again later. (If there is such a thing, and if there is why is it sometimes so bloody painful.)

Amstrad.







Bought originally because of :-

1) Promising rolling yield about 4.8%
2) Dividend cover of about 3
3) Increasing turnover 3years
4) Increasing eps over last 3years
5) I thought the results were good but played down by Sugar as is his way.
6) Interesting Nick knacks with suggestion for boxes of increasing turnover
7) SP Trend line form June /03 until Sept /05 good. Trend line at 103% per annum
8) There has been announcements of further deals for his boxes


But since then had a retracement to about 150 with a kick back up to 193 in February 05 followed by drop to 131 at 10/6/05. Since then there seems to me to be price break out on goodish volume on the 10th /6/05,

I think the trend is reversing but appreciate opinions. I still have reasonable tranche of these and intend holding until annual report 23/9/05

Against it is question whether it shows signs of further retracement, although the SP to-day was up.

Comments welcome on this share and others.

Apparently there will be some new to-morrow or within a few days.

http://www.bioprogress.com/html/news/news.html

Hope some here gained from DAG chart posted here around a week or so ago. Here's another one:

Proteome Sciences (PRM). Biotech (yes that dreadful word, but read on), with low cashburn, focusing on proteomics to provide early diagnosis of disease in eg stroke, screening of blood donations for vCJD, BSE live test in cattle, Alzheimer's etc. CEO Chris Pearce has repeatedly flagged that license deals with upfronts, milestones and royalties are expected from three main parts of the business 'by middle part of 2005'. Two-year chart:

Snip were you refering to The Vislink or this thread as the ramping thread? If the latter it wasn't started off with this intention. I hoped for feed back n interpretation with information leading to the formation of opinion, either positive or negative.

Anyway Vislink is up again at approx 37p.


BlueMango will try and have a look at Proteome charts and TA a little later. First glance look prmising, but in the middle of making a radish soup and Cherry Brandy and Cherries Bread and Butter pudding, to go with a Guinea Fowl, Cream and Leek casserole.

All quite slimming.

Had a quick loook. Overall the 6mth trend seems intact up to 99p to-day. Had a look some TA not sure but seems a little weakening. Trouble with these companies is lack of fundamentals. Haven't scanned Recent News. Perhaps Snip will offer his views.

Many thanks Fred. Like the sound of the casserole, and my wife says it sounds like you're fond of cherries (she is too) and when can we come for dinner? ;o)

On more boring topics, Proteome has been a bit lacking on recent news but Chris Pearce CEO is reported to be very upbeat and relaxed about current progress.

The casserole was good but I think i would use chicken thighs next time as they are more succulent. Cherries bread and butter pud not to bad, better with Maple syrup and Brioche. Radish soup interesting especially with dollop of cream. Similar to Spinach soup.

Right now the important bit is out of the way. Any body use trends and channels for setting up stop losses?

Those who use trend reversals for B&Selling. what parameters do they set?

What are the most useful indicators and why?

yes Fred. I use a % stop loss set within a channel. The % can vary depending on the height of the channel. Similar to swing trading
I use indicators only as a signaling tool in a minor capacity. I mainly use support/resistance and experience of candle charting and I am always mindful of the sheep/herd mentality when I analyse my charts. By the way volume is a huge indicator for me

Fred

Sometimes TA doesn't do quite what you expect it to do. Posted this chart and comments on another thread on Friday. From my analysis on Friday everything looked quite rosy and then today, bam, a profits warning and the SP drops 111p. Would be interested if your TA would have supported mine on Friday?

pth




However, I do like this chart for the following reasons:

1. The SP is in a near perfect uptrend since August last year and following recent activity there is no reason to think that this will not continue.

2. During June the SP formed a double bottom and has bounced. (Double bottom is a reversal pattern after a downtrend). What is improtant about this bounce is the accompanying increase in volume.

3. Following today's rise the SP has achieved a chart breakout, again on volume. By which I mean breaking above the resistance of 1750 established in March (4 times) and May. You may wish to be cautious and wait until the 1800 to confirm this breakout.

4. Moving Averages are all in the right order. RSI looks like it has some legs left.

5. MACD looks good: Moving average crossover & centre line crossover.

Not sure why you have set a target of 22. looking at the chart, the next hurdle should be the resistance at 19, whic is where I would set my target.

Pholden
I would agree with you.

5year graph looks good trend as you say intact.

MACD look good

Trix Looks good (I use a short term, although it is supposed to be long term indicator.)


RSI (15 day) is a touch above 70



Looking back over the volumes for two to three years the volumes increase with the price were a little small.

BUT BUT BUT
Travis Perkins moderates FY expectations as trading remains challenging UPDATEAFX
(Adds further comment from company)LONDON (AFX) - Travis Perkins PLC, the builders' merchant and DIY retailer, said trading is set to remain challenging for the rest of 2005 and it has therefore 'moderated' its expectations for the year.In a trading statement, Travis Perkins said group turnover for the first six months, including the effect of the February acquisition of Wickes, was up by 41 pct, but on a like-for-like basis sales were 0.5 pct lower.'We expect the trading environment for the remainder of 2005 to continue to be challenging,' the group said in a trading statement. 'Whilst we have taken prompt action to reduce costs this will not fully offset the impact of the current trading environment, and our expectations have been moderated accordingly.'But the group said progress on the integration of Wickes is proceeding ahead of schedule.At Wickes, total sales for the 26-week period to June 26 were down by 1.7 pct, and 4.9 pct lower on a like-for-like basis, Travis Perkins said.Home delivered showroom sales, which account for around 16 pct of Wickes total turnover, fell by 8.4 pct like-for-like as consumers reined in their spending.Travis Perkins said although the DIY market is showing signs of recovery, this improvement has been patchy and slower than expected.
However from yesterdays Sunday Times by john Whapples
************
Travis Perkins THE nearer you get to the consumer the tougher business is. That's likely to be the message tomorrow from Travis Perkins, the 2.1 billion builders merchant, when it gives a pre-close trading statement Travis, through its ownership of Wickes, is not immune to the high-street chill. But it is not as exposed as a pure DIY operator like B&Q, and Travis's core heavy- side business, which services the jobbing builder, is holding up well.
Trading in the first half of the year has been tough and if it continues, the group will miss full-year profit forecasts of f260m, but only by a'whisker. Investors will be encouraged by an update on the 135m of savings being made from the Wickes deal. These are running slightly ahead of expectation and other areas to save costs have been identified.
The shares have fallen 10% since February, which is in line with its peers. If interest rates are cut, this will boost the housing and DIY market.-

*************************

I am relatively new to TA (Started with scepticism about three years ago, and Still stumbling but learning). But what I am building into my check list before buying (or selling) on a trend is to check when an announcement is going to be announce (like a trading update) and then if I am in profit consider dumping and re-buying if info is good.
The only problem I can never find the checklist when I feel like buying.

One thing I do pay attention to before buying is the rate of change or speed of overall trend over a short period 2months + and extend it over the year. (percentage change) I suppose it would be fairer to shove the other shares I am looking at on the same chart and compare.

Also I am tending to use log scale prices.

Snip I utilise you method with channels, but I am stupid and only too often over rule my previous decisions. Usually at a price.

Fred

GFRD starting to pick up

Fundy,
The volumes look down for the last couple of days, but if they pick up it would look promising. The percentage rate of change ove the last 6mths is about 12%, but I think that looks like picking up. If the projected PEGs are "correct" it should do.

Fred

Interesting thing about the TPK chart and my commensts was the observation that it may be prudent to await confirmation of the breakout above previous reistance at the 1750 level. I would have used 3% from 1750 and therefore would have waited until the 1800 level was reached before taking a position. The 3% rule would have saved my skin!!

pth

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This has begun to outperform the Aerospace and defence sector.

This is doing well compared to the All share though not so well compared to the Oil & Gas sector but this looks set to change.

This was one of the shares of the year last year hitting 220 retracing in waves to 75p.
I caught the knife a little to high but with to-days info things look up as does the TA with formation of recent trend reversal.

Volume appears to be going with price rise and momentum and ROC etc, look promising. It has supportat 70p

I think it is worth keeping an eye on and possibly a buy, but how long the uptrend will last I havent a clue.

Alizyme PLC
07 July 2005


For Immediate Release 7 July 2005


ALIZYME REACHES AGREEMENT WITH FDA

FOR RENZAPRIDE PHASE III CLINICAL TRIAL


Cambridge UK, 7 July 2005: Alizyme plc (LSE:AZM) announces that it has reached agreement with the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) under the Special Protocol Assessment (SPA) procedure for the design of a pivotal Phase III clinical trial for renzapride in constipation-predominant irritable bowel syndrome (c-IBS) in the US.

The trial will be a multi-centre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel group, pivotal, efficacy study. The trial will involve up to 1,700 women with c-IBS being treated over a 12-week period. Patients' response will be determined by each patient, via weekly self-assessments of their IBS symptoms.
The primary endpoint will be to evaluate whether daily doses of renzapride, taken either as 4 mg once daily or 2 mg twice daily, are clinically and statistically significantly more effective than placebo in providing overall symptomatic relief of c-IBS in women between 18 and 65 years of age. Secondary endpoints include adequate relief of abdominal pain/discomfort and of bowel problems.

It is expected that patient recruitment will commence in Q4 2005 and, assuming anticipated recruitment timelines are met, Alizyme would expect results to be available in the first half of 2007.

Commenting, Dr Richard Palmer, Chief Executive Officer, said:

'We are extremely pleased to have reached agreement with the FDA, following extensive discussions, for this pivotal Phase III clinical trial of ren zapride in the US. This is a major achievement for both renzapride and the Company as it takes a second product from our portfolio into Phase III clinical development.'



Previous news



AFX News Feed
Thursday, 30/06/05, 16:24
Alizyme knows no reason for share movement, says finances strong

LONDON (AFX) - Alizyme PLC, the UK-based speciality biopharmaceutical development company, said it has noted the recent movement in its share price, adding it knows no reason for this. The company said following a 30 mln stg fundraising last April, it has sufficient funds to carry forward all its development programmes and for operations into 2008, during which time it expects to have made "significant progress in commercialising its portfolio." "Alizyme anticipates strong news flow later this year generated by progress in its product pipeline," it said. "Alizyme's late stage portfolio of four clinical products continues to progress according to plan," said CEO Dr Richard Palmer. "We are also in our strongest ever financial position and expect to report on significant progress in our product pipeline during 2005."




Comments appreciated.

Was this the news AZM chart was waiting for. Seems to be pivoting with definite uptrend forming.

Alizyme ready to start next trial of diabetic weight loss drugAFX
LONDON (AFX) - Alizyme PLC said it has completed recruiting patients for the second Phase II trial of its treatment for causing weight loss in obese diabetics, cetilistat.Initial results are due around the middle of December.The trial compares three doses of cetilistat with placebo and with orlistat, Roche AG's marketed treatment which brings in annual sales of around 500 mln usd.'The headline results, expected later this year, will mark the completion of Phase II development of cetilistat and confirm its product profile and competitive position in anticipation of its entry into Phase III development in 2006,' chief executive Dr Richard Palmer said in a statement.Alizyme shares close at 92.75 pence yesterday, valuing the group at 165 mln stg.amy.brown@afxnews.comab/bam

this is a speculative punt on a small oil and gas exploration Co. formed out of the old cash shell left over when Gold Mines of Sardinia merged with a canadian Co to form Medoro Resources. Medoro inherited the land in Sardinia, containing inferred millions of ounces of gold, but, for reasons unknown, dropped like a stone. Meanwhile CHP has quadrupled on speculation of exploration in land owned in Paraguay and more recently, it has gone up a gear in anticipation of permits to explore for oil in Columbia, would appear to be a dangerous part of the World! The chart looks good to me but this is a mining exploration Co so I suppose could also drop like a stone with any bad or no news. Interestingly an EGM is planned for 18.7.05, to authorise fundraising by way of share issue, should permits be granted in Colombia.
Apologies now if graph doesn't appear

The charts at first glance look impressive, but volume down to-day. and short MACDs not as good as I would like. Many of indicators seemed positive though. Also with the story you give I think I will sit this one out. To many "ifs" for me.

Interesting pennant formation on recent Proteome Sciences (PRM) chart: