The CEO states Tullow sp is much too low and I bought in on the comments---todays results are excellent and I feel this one is being overlooked on here. check it out bargain hunters-I'd welcome some expert feedback!

Well update - Sputnik-1 offshore Gabon
10 October 2014 - Perenco, Tullow Oil's partner in the Arouwe block offshore Gabon, today issued the following operational update.

"Perenco announces that the Sputnik-1 well, targeting a pre-salt structure in Gabon's offshore Arouwe block, has encountered non commercial hydrocarbon pay in up to 300 metres of net sandstone reservoir.

The Vantage Tungsten Explorer drill ship, drilled Sputnik-1 to a final depth of 4,868 metres in water depths of 1,023 metres.

The rig will now leave the Arouwe block and the results of this well will be incorporated into wider understanding of the region."

Tullow has a 35% interest in the Arouwe block with partners Perenco (35%, Operator) and ExxonMobil (30%).

Commenting on today's announcement, Angus McCoss, Exploration Director, said:
"This is an encouraging result from the pre-salt play, offshore Gabon. Having found a petroleum system, we will now take the data from this well and integrate it with our seismic data to discuss with partners our next steps for the licence."

Soc Gen note on friday:
"Tullow Oil’s share price has collapsed 44% in the year to date due to the triple whammy of falling oil prices, mixed drilling results and concerns over a lack of progress with its asset disposal strategy. Yet its financials remain strong as the company is in control of its capex and has the flexibility to direct its cash flows to where it can add the most value to its portfolio. Even in an $85/b world, we would still expect Tullow to be able to continue to finance high-margin production growth projects in Ghana and West Africa and at the same time add low cost resource barrels in Kenya to meet its 200mb per annum target. First gas flows from the Jubilee field are expected imminently and should allow Tullow to finally ramp up to a 120kb/d gross exit rate by year end. In addition, the historical premium placed on its exploration portfolio has dissipated, and at the current share price, this implies that investors are getting a ‘free’ option on future exploration success in Kenya ahead of a busy period of drilling (see more in our Kenya country report). We think risk/reward is skewed to the upside and upgrade to Buy (from Hold).
We have sat on the fence on this stock for some time now, due to concern over its exploration premium and exposure to the weak M&A market. However, we now think the current share price embeds an $88/b oil price, based on our core NAV estimate, lending further credibility to our view that downside asset risk has moderated. Tullow’s size and balance sheet strength should also allow it to ride out the current lower oil price environment, as shown in our $85/b cash flow scenario
How we value the stock - Our valuation methodology now moves to one that better captures rising macro uncertainties by using a 50/50 blend of the SG bear-/base-case valuation, as opposed to the previous single-point valuation at $100/b. On this our TP falls to 700p (from 865p) based on our blended risked NAV (page 4-5) using a 9.0% WACC. Our 2014 EPS estimate falls as we mark-to-market our oil prices for H2 14."

i was a great fan of TLW for a long time and got my fingers burned in due course, even though i ultimately sold out a lot further north than sp's current level

again i am tempted to dip my toes in the water, but continue to dither :-)

Kenya exploration and appraisal update

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4909360

Commenting today, Angus McCoss, Exploration Director, said:
"The Kodos-1 well is the first test of the Kerio Basin and hydrocarbon shows provide encouragement, indicating the presence of an active petroleum system. The potential of the Kerio Basin remains highly prospective and the rig is now moving to drill the next well, Epir-1, in a sub-basin to the north of Kodos-1.

South Lokichar Basin activity continued with exploration and appraisal drilling and well testing. The Ekosowan-1 well encountered a significant interval of oil shows however reservoirs at this location were tight. We look forward to stepping out from Ekosowan towards the Amosing oil field in pursuit of better reservoirs. Appraisal and well testing success continues with Ngamia-4 finding a substantial section of oil pay and Twiga-2A recording our highest flow rates to date."

12 November 2014 - Tullow Oil plc (Tullow) issues the following Interim Management Statement, for the period 1 July to 12 November 2014. The Group will announce its full year Trading Statement and Operational Update on 15 January 2015. Full year results will be announced on 11 February 2015.

COMMENTING TODAY, AIDAN HEAVEY, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER SAID:
"In light of current oil and gas sector challenges including the commodity price environment, we are reviewing our capital expenditure and our cost base to ensure that Tullow is well-positioned for future success. In 2015, we will be focusing our capital spend on producing and development assets, particularly in West Africa where, by 2017, the Group expects to be producing, net to Tullow, over 100,000 bpd of high quality, high margin oil. Our overall exploration spend will be significantly reduced and will focus primarily on East Africa where we have major basin-opening potential. Tullow remains exploration-led and will continue to add further high quality frontier acreage so that, as conditions allow, we can return to drilling the types of prospects that have given us the development portfolio we have today."

Strategic Overview
A review of the investment opportunities across Tullow's portfolio of activities is ongoing and, coupled with the current external environment, is indicating that the Group should re-allocate capital across the business towards producing assets and the commercialisation of existing discoveries.

The Group's core oil assets in West Africa - the TEN development project, Jubilee production and the non-operated West Africa portfolio - will generate significant value and cash flow for the Group and will attract the greatest share of capital in 2015. Exploration will continue to be a key part of Tullow's future growth strategy. However, given the current expectations for the oil price, reduced commercial success from offshore drilling and the lack of asset transactions, returns from drilling complex, deepwater wells are currently less attractive. In response, Tullow will now focus the majority of its exploration and appraisal expenditure on its operated onshore East Africa portfolio where significant value can be created by adding further resources and appraising existing discoveries to progress development in both Uganda and Kenya. In 2015, Tullow therefore expects to reduce net exploration and appraisal capital expenditure to around $300 million after the Norway tax rebate. During the year, Tullow will continue to seek new low cost and highly prospective exploration acreage in its core areas of Africa and the Atlantic Margins to ensure that the business continues to have an industry-leading exploration position.

In addition, the Group will continue to maintain a conservative financial framework and concentrate on a rigorous approach to both capital allocation and cost control across the Group. Tullow is focusing on maximising value from its asset base and positioning its business to benefit from improved market conditions in the future.

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4921543

StockMarketWire.com

Canaccord Genuity reiterates hold on Tullow Oil, target cut from 650p to 450p.

Heading back to 200p.

Another oil stock = avoid IMHO.

Then why post on a oil company thread ?

because he's perfectly entitled to post a view even if you don't like it

worth reading ST Biz section today ......
long articles on both QPP and vulnerability of small and med sized E+P companies, witrh particular mention of both TLW and AFR

Sunday Times -

hxxp://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/business/Industry/article1495615.ece

THE plunging oil price has unleashed chaos on the London market, with some listed oil explorers trading for less than their cash reserves and others eyeing takeovers at levels that were unthinkable just a few months ago.

Since hitting nearly $115 a barrel this summer, the price of oil has plummeted 45%. Brent crude closed on Friday at $61.5.

The fall is likely to lead to a flurry of collapses and long-coveted deals amid predictions that the swoon will continue into 2016 and could see the oil price dip to $50 or even lower.

Spain’s Repsol, for example, is closing in on a bid for Talisman, which is listed in Canada and has operations in the North Sea.

The companies held talks in July but called them off because they couldn’t agree on price. After that, Talisman’s share price collapsed by two-thirds before jumping this week on hopes of a new deal. It is thought that Repsol is looking to take out the company for as little as C$6 (£3.30) a share, or C$6bn — less than half its value a year ago.

Anthony Lobo, head of oil and gas at KPMG, predicted that many of the industry’s small and medium-sized players could be gobbled up, especially in all-share deals.

The share prices of industry heavyweights such as BP and Shell have fallen far less dramatically than those of their small rivals.

Lobo said: “Their shares now hold much greater value as takeover currency. We are going to see a lot of corporate activity. The majors are geared up for it.”

The pain for some is extreme. Shares in Ophir Energy, the London-listed explorer, have plunged by two-thirds this year. On Friday the company’s market value was £700m, which is less than the $1.5bn in cash it had on its balance sheet in June.

The plunge has thrown into doubt its takeover of rival Salamander Energy because the companies’ share prices have begun to diverge widely from the intended swap ratio.

Tullow Oil is also seen as one of the most vulnerable to an opportunistic offer. Its portfolio of big fields in Africa has long been coveted by larger rivals but its share price was seen as prohibitively high. From a high of £15.66 three years ago, it closed on Friday at £3.67.

Another big faller has been Afren. Its share price has dropped 80% this year to 35p. The Nigerian producer’s stock was first laid low after it uncovered a big unauthorised payments scheme engineered by its chief executive and other directors.

Its problems have been exacerbated by concerns over its $1.2bn debt pile. It is thought that at least two suitors are circling the company at present.

Providence Resources, meanwhile, is close to signing a deal with Sequa Petroleum to fund the development of its Barryroe reservoir in the Celtic Sea.

Providence, 15% owned by beleaguered tycoon Sir Anthony O’Reilly, is running out of time. It took out $24m in loans from Melody Business Finance, a New York hedge fund, and it must repay the money in June

given the precipitous fall over the last year of this once darling, it is dangerous to say "it's fallen enough and is now cheap or even excellent value"

anyway, for my sins, i bought some yesterday for my sipp at 368, so at the moment i'm certainly happy enough

The 'experts' are still predicting further falls in the price of crude, with the start of a possible turnaround mid 2015, so if they are right, all of these stocks have further to fall, imo. OPEC members can't agree amongst themselves on a cut in production, so until they get their act together, sub $50 pb looks likely.
It's all about timing when to get back in to this sector, but still a bit early I think.

But worth bearing in mind that markets tend to look around 6 months ahead, so around end of year may be low point for oil stocks.

harry - what you say is correct, but a side effect is that companies with proven and/or productive reserves become considerably more desirable, especially as their sp will have been battered more than your local saveloy

ooooh matron

I believe the nadir was around $30 a barrel in the depths of the crisis in 2009.

With the creationism of billions of new dollars subsequently is $50 about near the bottom? Just my thoughts.

Exane on the oil sector:
With OPEC choosing not to cut quotas, the onus now rests on non-OPEC producers to balance the market unless there is a strong demand response to soak up the oversupply of c.1.7mb/d through H1 15. The oil price collapse has triggered a number of capex cuts across the industry, with US onshore leading the way. We model a 25% fall in the US oil rig count through end 2016, by which point we see oil production being c.1.4mb/d lower vs initial expectations, which should be enough to rebalance the market by 2017. We cut our 2015/16/17 Brent forecasts from USD100/90/92/bbl to USD67.5/75/80/bbl. On average we cut NAVs by c.40% – the stocks are pricing USD65/bbl LT. We test a variety of scenarios from LT Brent of USD90/bbl down to USD50/bbl; we find that at low oil prices, every company with covenants (AFR, LUPE, MAU, PMO, TLW) is likely to breach them.
However, these companies have some options that could help them weather the storm – Afren (down to U/P) is most exposed at USD50/bbl over 2015-17. We believe TLW could meet it's covenants at a flat USD50/bbl oil price scenario until 2017 without cutting its dividend. The stocks most levered to oil prices are PMO & AFR; the least are Seplat, SOCO and Cairn.
We believe that Premier should not sanction Bream (USD83/bbl breakeven), and Sea Lion should again be revisited in 2016 given that the carry arrangement pushes the breakeven to c.USD63/bbl long term. On this basis we downgrade PMO (=), RKH (-). We believe that operator BG is likely to slow Ophir’s Tanzania LNG project at current prices. On the flipside, we believe that Sverdrup (LUPE), Kenya (AOI, TLW) and Uganda (TLW, government permitting) should all be sanctioned.