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UK Producer Price Index (MoM) (AUG) (08:30 GMT; 04:30 EST)
(Input) (Output)
Consensus: -0.5% 0.2%
Previous: 1.1% 0.2%

Outlook: UK producers margins are expected to have widened in August as economists predict input prices contracted for only the second time in 20 months while output prices hold steady. Expectations for a drop in the average price paid for raw materials last month seems well founded. From July, costly crude oil prices dropped nearly 14 percent. Additionally, metals were less expensive for the same period; gold eased 10 percent and copper fell 13.5 percent. One expense that was unshakeable for the period however was borrowing costs. The Bank of England raised rates twice this year in an effort to contain a resurgence in consumer price indices. While costs were sinking, the ability to pass the buck on consumers was questionable. An earlier released manufacturing health survey for the month of August reported a contraction from 53.6 to 53.1, but the CBI Industrial and Distributive Trade Trends both improved for the period. A trimming of costs at the factory door therefore may count more on demand. Orders from abroad were likely stifled by a more expensive currency while sharp drops in both the GfK and Nationwide Consumer Confidence reads pegged local consumer trends. If prices start to ease, the BoE may find less need to hastily counteract a sudden rise in the CPI in the months ahead.

Previous: Prices received at the factory gate rose 0.2 percent for the month of July and accelerated 2.8 percent on the year. This increase in prices received from customers reflected UK manufacturers efforts to pass soaring energy costs off of their books. The price per barrel of crude oil reached a record high in New York, pressuring the sector, which has struggled to pick itself up from its poor performance over the past few years. Of the products tracked, a few groups were accounting for the bulk of the increase. Prices in the material and fuel sector surged 9.7 percent for the month, while those of wholesale tobacco and alcohol were 2.4 percent higher.


UK Visible Trade Balance (British pounds) (JUL) (08:30 GMT; 04:30 EST)

Consensus: -6.200 Billion
Previous: -6.436 Billion

Outlook: The UK trade balance in the month of July could narrow to a NZ$6.100 billion as a result of export growth and a contraction in imports for a second consecutive month. A pickup in Euro-zone demand for UK products could be the primary driver behind an improvement in the trade balance. However, the continued weaker-than-expected trade data in recent months highlights the economys struggle to benefit from buoyant global demand in general.

Previous: The goods trade shortfall tightened less than the market had projected in June to a 6.463 billion deficit from a revised 6.980 billion in May. Exports actually fell 1.2 percent in June, while imports backed off 2.7 percent in the same period. The non-EU trade gap also narrowed in June to 3.150 billion from a 3.600 billion shortfall, while the Euro-zone goods balance worsened to a deficit of 2.530 billion - wider than the previous months 2.460 billion. While diminishing demand for imports by UK consumers has helped to limit expansion of the trade account, a struggling manufacturing sector and a strong pound restricts the ability of exports to flourish.

Ventured a small long last night with a 50 pt limit.
Very uneasy about starting another one now though.

PS Mark - you sure you pressed the right button? No mail.

bit of a fiddlers elbow atm

anyone trade usd/yen

Ha - missed some of it, but in again.

Nice to see some activity on here even if it's in french. Hope the postings continue. I'm proficient in "crap". Does that qualify as a language? lol

I'm long from 8648 earlier this morning :-)

Just out my USD Yen long from the early AM...
Going to struggle to get over 117.50 imo

thanks for comments guys..
agree Hilary re US economy...
although I am sure the squabling school boys that run the
country not helping.

Thought these two charts were interesting following last weeks fall. I don't use Fibs but seems a lot of Forex traders do so thought I would just keep an eye on them for a while. Hokem Pokem to me but but I presume they become self fulfilling in the end and therefore perhaps should not be dismissed entirely. Any thoughts?




It's interesting to note that EUR/USD has fallen to the 61.8% Fib. Cable has retraced only to the 50% mark. If Cable fell to the 61.8 line then that would take it down to 8489. Not saying it will but if the 50% level doesn't hold then who knows??????

H, dont use fib that much, and tend to use it over longer periods and note where S&R happens at fib levels.
Where the 50% is on your cable chart is also the area where the 23.6% fib level is from the dec 2005 low to the aug high. Its an area that has had action around it before over the last couple of years. Time will tell. Probably got an ascending triangle thingie forming as well!

Is it up or down from here?

P.S. sorry cant print charts on here

I'm getting really cheesed off with this now.

Is it just me or has the whole internet thingie been real pants for the last week or so? Every site that I visit seems to take a month of Sundays to load (and that's even if it does actually load). Today was difficult enough as it was without bloody internet problems to boot.

Nah Hils - been a load of trousers here too. But then I always blame everything on me first :S

Ta for the fib thingies, Harlosh - as far as I'm concerned, they're significant when they're ... err, significant :) Don't treat them any differently from EW theory really. I could send you some GANN stuff if you're interested.

FWIW I'm still long cable in a few places for now - wishing I'd followed my original premise which was to reverse short on a rise - it would have been more satisfying :)

Anyone seen recent Tom Hougaard Fibonacci presentation. I've not, but heard some reports it was very good bringing in the extensions, projections and expansions (also Gartley and Butterfly).
50 retracement crossed from the other side on 11/9/06 and close above the open (I know some people say this doesn't exist with 24/7 Forex) so valid entry with stop just below recent low.
Fib signals generally considered stronger when there is a cluster, 2-3 or more close together. IF pound got to 0.618 retracement (1.8520) there would also be 1.62 Projection from 1.9161 nearby so more reason to trade a bit bigger size from there assuming stop loss reasonable but I only calculate these on end of day basis.

[07:29 NEWS: Syrian Security Forces Surround/Seal-off US Embassy -Rtrs] London,
September 12. Matthew.Foster-Smith@Thomson.com

[07:34 USD/CHF: Franc Attempting To Rally On US Embassy News] London, September
12. The safe-haven Swissie is back and the Franc looks bid in the wake of news
that Syrian security forces have surrounded and sealed-off the US embassy.
Newswires report gunfire and clouds of smoke rising from the building but
nothing official as yet. USD/CHF prints 1.2417 with any break below 15 targeting
the figure.
EUR/CHF is also at session lows with the move favouring the CHF looking far more
pronounced. The cross is testing 1.5790 once more and any break below 1.5785
will see the move lower accelerate towards 1.5750.
Matthew.Foster-Smith@Thomson.com


07:44 EUR/USD: Rallying As Dollar Wobbles On Renewed Terror Woes] London,
September 12. News that gunfire has been heard around the US Embassy in Syria
has dented the US Dollar and with renewed terror woes circulating EUR/USD has
been forced to rally. Spot has equaled the late Asian session high at 1.2726 but
it is making a play for a break above 1.2730 should officials confirm such
militant roots. Any break into the 1.2730"s will see spot look for a re-test of
the 1.2740 failure high from yesterday with more sellers tipped to trail into
the 1.2750"s. Matthew.Foster-Smith@Thomson.com

Thanks Hilary.

Hodgins - no I haven't but wouldn't mind seeing it out of interest. I'm not a Fibonacci fan (if you'll forgive the pun) but always interested in learning something new (and I don't have to read a book).

Do you have a link?

Harlosh
I have only heard word of mouth of Tom Hougaard Fibonacci seminar but sounds similar to that taught by
Sandy Jadeja at www.spreadbettingtowin.com
I hate screenwatching and just trade end of day (mostly) so FX figures based around 8PM for better or worse?
6 pattern (up and down)-retracement,extension, projection, expansion, Gartley 222 and butterfly.
Simple criterion for entry and stop (often quite close). Theoretically small losses and big wins?
You may or may not want to pay for course and you may or may not think I am quite mad but I am quite happy to use Fibonacci in this way as I view human behaviour in the financial markets as just an extension of nature's number.

Harlosh, you can find out about fib and how traders use it (and how you can use it) at the interactive broker site. I've just watched it and found it very informative.

http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/general/education/priorWebinars.php?ib_entity=uk

The date you want is 9 nov 2005. Guys got a pretty auwful voice but the contents good. think you can skip the first 15 mins or so

Well I saw Tom H at a London Traders wotsit when I was entertained by MM for a little while.

He's a great speaker and entertainer and I'm sure that his research is very comprehensive, but I came away thinking that Fibonacci is a load of bunkum. Ashley James would probably disagree though.

:o)

When I say it's bunkum, I mean that I'd rather buy a market because it is actually rising rather than buy it because it's at, say, a 38.2% Fibo retracement and might go up.

There's a big difference imo.

Hodgins, Goforit, Many thanks.

I'm more with Hilary really - I prefer to trade on price rather than something like Fibs and don't want to get too involved in them but am interested enough to do a little reading or watching so thanks for your help.

Hilary,try the above site, the reason I thought it was interesting was the way the guy was showing you how to use it to help you achieve a good way of entering a trade or adding to a position.

Saw tom last year, as you say very entertaining and great speaker.