The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

I am surprised at the Halifax they are generally one better banks although to be honest never traded with them,
quite poss' the library comp'
In advance we welcome you aboard make sure you bring a your seat belt and be prepared for to experience sea sickness from the rocky ride.
good luck

I bought as I've said at 159.75p and nobody is to blame but myself - hoping to ride the emotional wave. Yes I was hoping to daytrade this stock as i had never researched it. I would like to say, and by all means disagree, I think the announcment by David Horgan, about possible contracts was badly handled and incomplete. I believe a time scale should have been part of any press release because infact,their isn't one is their? I think DH's recent comment is "it would take time." A fuller statement may have prevented this speculative bubble as it surely is. We are now seeing the MMs at their best, making a market, enticing the buyers back in, because yesterday was the danger of sellers taking over. Hope those Iraqi's didn't just come for a Guiness . z

Ziblot - you must have had a terrible ride this week buying in at that level, this stock has such a potentially huge up-side / downside that it is not really one to be day-traded as far too much risk, as for your comment about their mis-timed rns, well you are not the only one to have thought that, but come on it was price sensitive information and had to be released.

Another DH e-mail on this very subject was posted over on the advfn thread, and answers most questions about the rns -


Just got this response from David Horgan :


On the contrary, we were reluctant to say anything. But talking it through with our Nominated Advisor and the board we agreed that the development was price sensitive and must be shared equally with all shareholders: the Ministry used the phrase 'finalize', after all. Our duty is to state facts. It's the market's job to react and assess.
We have a senior Iraqi Ministry of Oil delegation in Ireland now and they have not objected to any press comment. On the contrary, they want to show that work can be done.

I suspect that such BBcommentary is simply shenanigans by short sellers along the lines of recent BB announcements of my death. In fact such stories were premature and I anyway am unlikely to die in two separate countries on two separate occasions.

Free markets are a balance of bulls and bears. People talk their book. I have no problem with criticism, scepticism or shorting but wish it could be kept on a serious level.

David

-----Original Message-----
From:
Sent: 14 October 2004 08:11
To: David Horgan
Subject: RE: Petrel Resources


David,

This has been posted on a BB ,seems to sum up the position:









Why on earth did the company recently issue such a ramping RNS quoting that they had
been invited by the Iraqi Ministry of Oil for "an urgent and direct discussion to
finalise all technical and commercial matters"?

Surely by spinning it in such a way the company must have known that it would lead to
a rise in its shareprice to an unsustainable level and high volatility. But I suppose
somebody can always profit out of such volatility.

To quote things in such a way is gross ramping and shows that if the company needs to
communcate with the market in such a way to build up expectations and send the share
price rocketing as suckers buy in, then they are quite frankly a cowboy outfit. Are
they not confident enough just to let events run their natural course? Seemingly not
!!

These "discussions" as anybody who has been involved in the oil and gas business will
know are just a straight forward BCM (thats bid clarification meeting to the
uninitiated). By their very nature, namely that certain items are unclear and are
delaying the client comparing and evaluating the bids from the various bidding
parties, they are conducted on an urgent basis since failure to do so could delay the
award of the contract and the entire project schedule.

To dress it up in any other way as PET seem to have done and try to lead people to
believe that they are somehow the favourites to win these contracts when the bid
evaluation is ongoing is extremely amatuerish and underhanded.

Has it actually occured to anybody that the Iraqis are calling them in because the
bid they submitted was not properly prepared and was lacking detail in important
technical and commercial areas? It would not surprise me. Lets face it PET have no
experience whatsoever of tendering for large oil and gas contracts. Maybe the other
two bidders for these projects from the Emirates and Turkey have submitted better
bids and there is no need to call them in, although in reality there would almost
certainly be a reason to call them in as well to try to screw a bit more out of them.


I actually find it rather amusing how people on this thread seem to have the
perception that the Iraqis are a poor third world lot who PET with their great
expertise are going to help to everybody's (not least PET shareholders) benefit. The
fact is the personnel at the Iraqi Oil Ministry have overseen seen some pretty bigs
projects in their time and have far more expertise, both technical and commercial
than PET. How many such projects have PET been involved with before?

What would you do if you were the Iraqis? Select PET and have to endure ongoing
problems due to their lack of project execution and operational experience or do the
sensible thing and go for the Emirates or Turkish who with their proven track records
present no such problems.

I suspect the Iraqis are just using them as a stalking horse in an attempt to get a
better deal from the other bidders. Anyway they have probably had a good friendly
relationship with PET over the last few years in what has been a very difficult time
for their country. Maybe PET entertained them well and took them to Royal Ascot, the
FA Cup final and other places? I really don't know.

Either way I would be amazed if PET got any work in Iraq.

I also find it amusing that PET themselves are quoting figures on their website
(often repeated on this thread) of how much per share these contracts are worth and
what their shareprice should / would be.

Maybe its just me but I thought analysts (not that any would cover a company such as
PET) were supposed to do that sort of thing.

Certainly when it comes to to spin and trumpet blowing PET can surely have few
equals.

Following that ridiculous rocketing up of the share price which was fuelled solely on
hot air the market now making its judgement and looks to be pretty harsh.

Harsh, but certainly fair. Although there is chart support around 45p, which is as
yet untested, this could go much lower. Even now at 90p the company has a market cap
of 50 million with assets of less than 2 million.

I would not be surprised to see it drop below 10p once people wake up and smell the coffee !

Please could someone tell me exactlym what on earth is going on???
Contracts or no contracts!!!
Please help!!!

Rkausar - As reported before PET are arranging to go to Iraq this weekend, people piling back in,perhaps on the back of aleak as 10.30am started alot of buying, although inreality just punters hoping for the contract announcements sometime soon, as much as I believe in this stock, must say it is still a speculative buy

Tokyo

scottie7, went to Halifax branch and used their computer 2 hours later, site still not responding, have set up account with Abbey and got phone numbers to deal with halifax and abbey over the phone so I hope I dont miss out again, just frustrating to be certain a share will rise (as it did) and not be able to buy.
Chris

scottie7, went to Halifax branch and used their computer 2 hours later, site still not responding, have set up account with Abbey and got phone numbers to deal with halifax and abbey over the phone so I hope I dont miss out again, just frustrating to be certain a share will rise (as it did) and not be able to buy.
Chris

pinechris, Sorry to hear that, did you manage to open the position??
Thanks for the info anyway because I was considering opening a Halifax trading account.I have made up my mind now.
scottie

scottie7, I bought twice, once in may at 38p and last monday as they came down at about 115p, but some more at less than 90p would have been nice. In for the ride now, lets hope they rise to anywhere near predicted, I have seen anything from 2.00 to 60.00 in 12 months time, should I retire now or wait?
Chris

If you carry on watching this share, you're more likely to die of heart faliure, than to worry about retirement!!!! up 23% I've given up on ths share already!! god only knows whats going to happen tomorrow!!!!

Pinechris
Not to put you off unnecessarily, but I deal with Abbey over the phone and ever since the takeover news the lines have been jammed with people who don't appreciate the share dealing service is not for that particular querie. If you want to be able to deal quickly at a price you want- I'd go elsewhere for now,especially for such a volatile stock as this one. If I didn't have an account up and running with them, I'd be dealing elsewhere. When I topped up on these a few days ago the price I eventually bought at was very different to what it had been when I picked up the phone...unfortunately it wasn't the early part of this week.
Regards, S

Perhaps we should start a 'best' stockbroker thread? John

for on-line trading accounts I use comdirect and I have yet to have a problem with them, if you guys live in the UK, you can set it up straight away, if you have a friend who has an account with them give them your e-mail and your mate gets 50 quid for introducing you!!!

Tokyo

I use Comdirect as well and they are very good. Flat 12.50 fee per trade.

skids

I prefer to deal by phone. Any recommendations?...and how easy is it to transfer an account across?

Comdirect through LloydsTSB, although LLoyds are about to set up their own service with more functionality.

On the subject of PET, I must say I was totally gobsmacked as the day unfolded. I was convinced that without news that the SP would continue to fall and then it turns around as dramatically as it fell, something like 30% difference between the intraday rise and fall? Good luck to all you holders, there must be some very frayed nerves and fast disappearing finger nails out there.

Regards

PTH

I was glad to be out for the day - great suprise to return to. Wonder what tomorrow will bring.

Comdirect charge the same for online or telephone orders. 12.50.

Thanks guys. If the mess at the Abbey isn't sorted soon I'll give Comdirect a ring.

Phew - What a day! Rides at Alton Towers are less thrilling!
If this goes on for another 6 weeks I dread to think what our nerves will be like!
I expected it to go down further from its 9% initial drop and sold a small top-up holding early today that I bought yesterday @89p thinking I could get in lower - but missed it so I am kicking myself rather badly. Might get another chance you never know.
What will tomorrow bring??
I guess we'll have nightmares tonight! Exciting stuff.