Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Thought I'd post this chart as a pretty good example of a potential high pole reversal signal. The two small arrows (if you can see them) indicate consolidation and the larger arrow is the high pole itself meaning a run up followed by an immediate slap back down. Remains to be seen whether or not it pans out during the rest of the day and it may find support on the 45 degree bullish support around 8835/40 on this chart.

My only concern is that the uptrend is so strong I'm a little loathe to short until it is clearly on its way down.

Just looking at Fibs again whilst Cable makes up its mind.

8836 is the 50% fib retracement from yesterdays high.

8816 is the 61.8% retracement.

If cable fails to hold current levels we may visit 8816 area then perhaps a rally upwards????

'Inflation to hit 3pc by year end.'


http://w3.cantos.com/cantos/dyn/org.php?o=9500015&s=35500019&n=1596&a=68&e=fj.macpherson%40ntlworld.com&u=

61.8% Fib met as predicted - question is can it hold or are we looking at 78.6 Fib at 8788?

US inflation figs out at 13.30.

There's been rumours that fig's could be higher than expected. Looks like cable has already reacted to these rumours.

[11SEP US ECON: The Week Ahead in US Economics] Boston, September 15.

There's lots more data today, though economic fundamentals have had little bearing on Treasury prices. Consider CPI the star, but the plot needs more development.
None of the data today (or early next week) will lead the Fed to change the
funds rate on September 20.
[CPI (Aug)] IFR sees just a 0.1% rise in headline CPI in August as energy
commodity prices and owners' equivalent rent moderate. Net of food and fuel,
core CPI should rise by 0.2%, the same as in July. Even with a benign month-ago
core print, the year-ago rate would rise to 2.8% from 2.7% in July and may spook
the uninitiated. Instead, look at the 3-month annual rate (the Fed does) which
should fall to 2.7% from 3.1% a month earlier and 3.7% (an 11-year peak) in May.
[Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Sep)] IFR sees continued consolidation
in the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey, with the general
business conditions index falling to 8.0 in August from 10.34 in July. The index
had been as high as 29.01 in June. Expect prices paid to slow for a third
straight month while prices received should hold steady. The number of employees
index has been moderate, averaging 6.93 in the last four months, about half the
average of the prior 4-month period. Be on the lookout for a decline in the
capital expenditures outlook.
[Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Aug)] Already faced with
bottlenecks, IFR expects the total rate of industrial production to rise a
further 0.3% in August and the capacity use rate to reach 82.5%. Factory output
rose by only 0.1% in July though net of autos and parts, production rose a
wholesome 0.7%, a 3-month best. Look for a 0.5% rise in factory output in
August, a 0.5% rise in mining production and a 0.7% increase in utilities
output. The factory use rate should increase to 81.2%, the highest since May
2000.
[U of Michigan Sentiment (pSep)] IFR anticipates a further increase in
consumer sentiment as gas prices nosedive and rising equity prices take some of
the bruise out of housing's misfortune. After slumping to 78.7 in early August
and rising to 82.0 late in the month, look for a rise to 83.5. That will still
be below the final July print (84.7) and the 2006 average (86.1). Pay close
attention to the median expected inflation rates, one year and five years hence.
These were at 4.2% and 3.1%, respectively, in August. Elevated inflation
expectations are a sore spot for Fed policymakers.
[DATE ET RELEASE UNIT PER IFR EST LAST MED RANGE ]
15Sep 12:30 CPI %m/m Aug 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4
15Sep 12:30 CPI Core %m/m Aug 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
15Sep 12:30 Empire Mfg Survey Idx Sep 8.0 10.3 14.0 8.0 20.0
15Sep 13:15 Industrial Prod. %m/m Aug 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.5
15Sep 13:15 Capacity Util. %,AR Aug 82.5 82.4 82.4 82.3 82.7
15Sep 13:45 Michigan Sentiment Idx pSep 83.5 82.0 84.0 82.0 87.0
-- Jeoff.Hall@thomson.com

[12:32 US ECON: Headline and Core CPI Rose 0.2% in August; Moderate]

September 15. The New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Index increased 2.8 points to 13.84 in September from a revised up index of 11.04 in August. More

Thanks Hils, scalped a few from that rise. Will wait until next week now before any new positions set up.

Still think Cable is a short.

It's waiting on Michigan at 2:45pm yet, H..

[13:16 US ECON: IP and Cap U Fall, Relieving Bottlenecks] Boston, September 15.

Thanks Hilary. What happened there. Still 5 mis to Michegan?

It's obviously not waiting for Michigan after all.

:o)

13:44 GBP/USD: Trips Stops Below 1.8800 & 1.8780, Large 1.8750 Expiry] London,
September 15. Sterling has tripped stops below 1.8800 and 1.8780 en route to an
intra-day low of 1.8763, amid speculation that September"s preliminary Michigan
sentiment index may come in much better-than-expected. Consensus forecast: 84.0.

More stops reportedly reside below 1.8760. These could further depress cable
to/through 1.8750. An estimated GBP 350mn 1.8750 option strike rolls off at
today"s 10am EST NY cut (14:00GMT). 1.8710 (Wednesday"s low) is a bear target
south of 1.8750.

Thanks for that Hilary.

My short is doing well and I have a target of 8685 if it ever gets there - probably monday now but I won't be here :-(

I noticed this thread is falling off the main page...

"How very dare you"... LOL


Eur/ Usd trying to impersonate a straight line..

All very quiet on the cable coal face too.

I guess everyone's waiting for the FOMC later but then again no change is expected.

So expect more straight line stuff.

It's always like this ahead of the Fed. Its still a long though for now, imo.

Wow. It woke up all of a sudden.

What a beautiful mover :o)