markymar
- 03 Dec 2003 11:36
gibby
- 30 Dec 2010 04:34
- 5972 of 6492
lol
some general info fyi....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/8184486/Falkland-Islands-oil-false-dawns-and-rollercoaster-share-rides.html
this post from ii:
'Whilst some respected posters are doing their utmost best in talking down DES whilst talking up RKH to serve their own purposes lets take a look at whats next...
(1) Jacinta came up dry. Well that is no surprise. Its a long way from any other well tie in. There is a distinct lack of details of the reservoir conidtions at this well. Did they encounter water?, If so was it fresh. Will there be any traces of oil like 14/24-1 after post analysis to verify the oil has come and gone (but in which direction?)
(2) Dawn coming up next. Dawn is a success, it will most likely be gas, if it is a failure well the trap has failed and is a prerequisite for Alpha to be charged. Hello Arcadia, time to put your hands in your pockets once the numbers have been crunched.
(3) Rig going to RKH for the next 2 wells. Thats it. Only 2, no confirmed continuation, but who knows what will happen after Q1, 2011
(4) By Q2, 2011 the seismics of the NE basin should have been fasttracked processed. DES puts out another CPR identifying more targets.
(5) Funding. Well there is enough funds for one remaining drill. This is not the last throw of the dice. The outcome of the Sealion appraisals will have a very strong influence on the price of capital rasing for DES to explore the NEFB. The capital raising will be done by either farm in or the usual share issue.
So which way for DES now? Well lets assume Dawn has failed. PI's will panic and head for the hills and then to watch the share rebound to around 45-50p whilst the rig moves to Sealion -2. Anticipation will set in for Sealion appraisal edging the share maybe to 60p. Sealion 2 - comes in well hello 70-80p, Sealion 3 comes in well hello 100p again as that is confirming the discovery area adjacent to Rachel.
Lets assume Dawn comes in with gas. Well...guess what the people who sold out at 45p won't have a chance to get back in. Ones that sold at 60p.. might be lucky.. bang back to 70p. Either way its back to 60-70p, just the time horizons for each are different.
So given this...Now for the people bailing out has it evere occurred to you that holding may be the best method of regaining any losses? Any mistiming of the market, you lose more. The correct timing will mean you gain more but the chance to bug it up is high, its the game I suppose but you are takuing on very seasoned experienced traders who will make mince meat of you. Some people may have the time to sit around and trade this beast, but others may just have better more constructive things to do than sit and watch a computer screen buying and selling on some hope and a prayer.
DES is not finished. I repeat DES is not finished. So anyone who says that is speaking out of their ring and knows little about the exploration business. The NFB is HUGE. The oil has spread like an ink blot on a page. Its a puzzle to work it out. '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/8094462/Revealed-how-Desires-advisers-have-cashed-in.html
&.....
'Arcadia will drill and test a major new prospect named Alpha, paying 100% of the costs to earn
50% in Block 25/10 and part of Block 25/15. This prospect also extends into the newly awarded
Blocks 25/8, 25/9 and 25/14b where Arcadia has an 80% interest and Desire 20%. Based on the
current mapping, Desire estimates that it has an approximately 30% interest in the total Alpha
prospect.
Alpha is a large, well-defined, structural closure, covering an area of over 300 square kilometres.
It is associated with a very strong AVO anomaly which in addition to significantly de-risking the
prospect, suggests that the reservoir is gas charged.'
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By Rowena Mason, Energy Correspondent 6:28AM BST 29 Oct 2010
16 Comments
As its shareholders the vast majority small investors anxiously await news, the explorers share price has still been bobbing up and down like a nodding donkey this week. Will it be third-time lucky for Desire or will the latest drilling effort prove fruitless just like the last two? The rumour mill is working overtime with the share price doubling earlier this week on rumours the minnow has hit oil.
But while investors fret, the companys directors, advisers and consultants already appear to have profited from Falklands fever even if the presence of oil has yet to be confirmed. An analysis of company filings by The Daily Telegraph shows:
A consultancy connected to Stephen Phipps, the chairman, and his sister, Anna Neve, the company secretary, has been paid 3m for management services and rent over the years. These payments of approximately 300,000 per year continued during the years when the company was merely waiting for a rig to become free to begin drilling.
Advisers to the company have earned almost 4m from 109m worth of rights issues and placings the bulk going to its broker Seymour Pierce.
Three companies connected to directors have also been employed as consultants, receiving thousands of pounds in extra fees beyond the 28,000 remuneration to each non-executive.
Related Articles
Desire's Falklands oil 'find' is actually water 07 Dec 2010
Who are Desire's shareholders and what are they saying? 07 Dec 2010
Desire Petroleum: what the analysts are saying 07 Dec 2010
Internet talk of Falkland oil discovery ramps Desire 28 Oct 2010
Falklands oil failure as Desire comes up dry 16 Oct 2010
Rockhopper shares tumble on oil doubts 14 Oct 2010
Directors have benefited from an avalanche of share options granted over the years. Two days after the first rig was hired for the Falklands, Mr Phipps sold shares worth 2m at 115.3p per share. On the same day he bought three times as many shares for 2m under options at 32.46p per share a 71pc discount to the traded price.
The dilutive effect of cash calls means that a 10pc stake in the company before the placings and open offers would now account for just 4pc of the company.
Desire is not the only Aim-listed oil and gas company to make a fortune for those connected to the company even before striking oil.
Investors in Aim-listed natural resources stocks are often hit by the dilutive effects of share placings.
For example, Falklands rival Rockhopper raised 320m through six placings and Falklands Oil & Gas 80m through five.
Like many of its peers, Desire has never made a profit or produced any revenue, typically losing 2m per year except in 2005 when it was sitting on the proceeds of a recent share placing.
Investors are not the only ones to be exposed. Desires directors have also ploughed substantial amounts of their own money back into the company, as they built up large chunks of the equity.
And theyre certainly convinced that oil is down there, whether or not in commercial quantities, with Mr Phipps remaining upbeat and encouraged even after the failure of its first well.
But passion for Falklands exploration over a decade is no guarantee of commercial success.
It is now Desires second decade of trying to find black gold in an unexplored area in the middle of the Atlantic.
Investors have been on a roller coaster typical of an Aim-listed oil and gas stock, as the companys market value has grown from 60m to 310m on the geological promise of the area.
Despite the hopes of its faithful investors, its still the case that Desire has just a one-in-10 chance of coming up with a concrete find. Lets hope theyre right.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
i like to be fair - make of this lot what you wll
hlyeo98
- 30 Dec 2010 07:28
- 5973 of 6492
Desire Petroleum shares fell 17p, or 29 per cent, to 42p after the company said it had found no hydrocarbons in its Jacinta well in the southern part of the North Falkland Basin.
Desire, which earlier this month said it had 75m ($116m) remaining to drill its final two prospects, said it would now proceed with drilling the deeper Dawn prospect at the same site.
The failure to find oil is the latest setback for Desire, whose shares have dropped 73 per cent, from 168p, since they hit a high on October 11. That was before Desire said that it had failed to make a commercial discovery at the Rachel prospect, a joint venture with fellow Falklands explorer Rockhopper.
David Farrell, an analyst at Evolution Securities, said it could soon be game over for Desire, which after drilling four dry wells might have trouble raising more funds.
This didnt come as too much of a surprise [though] it will be hard for the management to go cap-in-hand [to the market] again. Perhaps if Rockhopper has continuing success that might change ... but it looks as if it has one last roll of the dice, he said.
In September, Desire raised 22.8m in a share placement for a potential drilling programme elsewhere in the North Falkland Basin, close to where Rockhopper made its Sea Lion discovery.
That remains the only oil find in the region since four London-listed oil companies that operate there Rockhopper, Desire, Falkland Oil & Gas and Borders & Southern raised 250m from investors last year to drill for oil at the spot for the first time since 1998.
Earlier this month, Desire shares fell after it issued a statement suggesting that it had struck oil based on preliminary data, only to announce a few days later that it had turned out to be a mixture of residual oil and water.
mitzy
- 30 Dec 2010 08:13
- 5974 of 6492
Heading down to 30p imo.
Balerboy
- 30 Dec 2010 08:38
- 5975 of 6492
buy buy buy:))
required field
- 30 Dec 2010 08:47
- 5976 of 6492
Of all the shares I own...this is the worst one.....will just have to sit it out....and wait for a well close to sealion or thereabouts.....the sp should rebound by then...
cynic
- 30 Dec 2010 08:57
- 5977 of 6492
obviously i don't know how big a loss you are running or how many shares you hold relative to the rest of your portfolio, but unless you see good reason why DES should rebound (personally, I do not), then why sit like a rabbit in the headlights?
mitzy
- 30 Dec 2010 09:05
- 5978 of 6492
lol Balerboy.
Balerboy
- 30 Dec 2010 09:06
- 5979 of 6492
Because there's just a chance it'll get back to 60p with next drill......just a chance.,.
cynic
- 30 Dec 2010 09:09
- 5980 of 6492
probably similar chance to DES finding anything commercial - but then i am a declared bear of this stock
Balerboy
- 30 Dec 2010 09:12
- 5981 of 6492
I agree but a 50% loss is better than a 75% loss, so live in hope.
required field
- 30 Dec 2010 09:16
- 5982 of 6492
Just don't want to clock up a bad loss when with patience I can see this being above 80p with a spud close to RKH's acreage.....
HARRYCAT
- 30 Dec 2010 09:20
- 5983 of 6492
I must admit rf, that if you haven't sold by now, then my opinion would be to wait for the next spud or drill result as DES is likely to move in sympathy, though not with the same momentum as it used to.
Balerboy
- 30 Dec 2010 09:23
- 5984 of 6492
We'll tie ourselves in rf and not jump ship.......not yet anyway.,.
cynic
- 30 Dec 2010 09:25
- 5985 of 6492
Prophet of Doom says that with patience, sp could very easily, or even more likely be 20p or even less
ptholden
- 30 Dec 2010 09:43
- 5986 of 6492
Harry, you should read the Naked Trader, you're displaying all the symptoms of egotistical trading / investing - refusal to take a loss!
HARRYCAT
- 30 Dec 2010 09:55
- 5987 of 6492
I agree with you in principle, but if the consensus of informed opinion is that DES is likely to rise on the back of RKH activity, then why sell now? My argument is that rf should have sold long ago, but that is easy for me to say with hindsight and I have learned the hard way myself in the past.
ptholden
- 30 Dec 2010 10:05
- 5988 of 6492
Harry, I meant to direct my observation at RF, apologies.
I've been in the same position all too often in the past.
hlyeo98
- 30 Dec 2010 10:28
- 5989 of 6492
Now everybody agrees that DES is a doom and gloom company?
cynic
- 30 Dec 2010 10:36
- 5990 of 6492
no - only me (and you?) who rattles like an old tin drum
hlyeo98
- 30 Dec 2010 10:44
- 5991 of 6492
and me too and I'm thinking about stopping my short for a profit, what do you reckon?