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Rate held as expected but cable's gone ape s**t

Oooops. Forgot all about the Fed as I was just getting ready to go out.

Here's the statement in case nobody's seen it.

[18:17 US ECON: FOMC Statement] Boston, September 20, 2006
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the
federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent.
The moderation in economic growth appears to be continuing, partly
reflecting a cooling of the housing market.
Readings on core inflation have been elevated, and the high levels of
resource utilization and of the prices of energy and other commodities have the
potential to sustain inflation pressures. However, inflation pressures seem
likely to moderate over time, reflecting reduced impetus from energy prices,
contained inflation expectations, and the cumulative effects of monetary policy
actions and other factors restraining aggregate demand.
Nonetheless, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain. The
extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these
risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and
economic growth, as implied by incoming information.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman;
Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn;
Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; Kevin M. Warsh; and
Janet L. Yellen. Voting against was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred an increase
of 25 basis points in the federal funds rate target at this meeting.
Source: Federal Reserve

[18:15 US FED: Lacker Dissents Again, Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged] Boston,
September 20. Perhaps one of the only surprises to the FOMC statement is the
second dissent from Richmond Fed's Lacker. Nevertheless, policy was unchanged
at 5.25% and the inflation risk language was maintained.
The cooling in the housing market was no longer described as "gradual" and
energy prices, despite large declines in September, were deemed threatening to
the inflation outlook. -- Jeoff.Hall@thomson.com

thanks Hilary

Thanks Hils.

Cables's settled down now but i'm guessing at the initial spike down was due to the fact that despite holding at 5.25% there is still a hint of inflation in the background

On the contrary, Bak - inflation worries are what is sending the dollar down.

I read this snippet today:

"Manufacturing down 3.4 million since '98
AFX

NEW YORK (AFX) - Losses of manufacturing jobs are bringing the number of manufacturing jobs to lows not seen since the 1950s, according to the Economic Policy Institute, a liberal think tank.
The current drop off in manufacturing jobs is 'truly staggering,' the EPI's Jared Bernstein and L. Josh Bivens wrote Wednesday. Since manufacturing peaked in 1998, the sector is down 3.4 million jobs to 14.2 million workers.
Wages haven't fared much better; real wages for blue collar workers are down 2.7 percent over the past 12 months. For all non-managers, real wages were flat for the last year, according to EPI."

It's all very well suggesting that a cooling in the housing market and falling energy prices might have temporarily stemmed the urge to raise rates to curb inflation, but I go with the theory that inflation will creep higher regardless of these factors, transient as they are, and the Fed might lose some of its inflation-fighting credibility with investors. Together with companies and consumers, they could change their behaviour in ways that could worsen inflation.

For instance, companies could boost prices even more and employees might demand bigger pay increases. It's already happening over here.

It's too late at night and I'm too tired to make this case both coherently and in full, but I'm convinced that both Governments and fiscal authorities here and in the U.S. have failed to grasp the extent of the destruction of their manufacturing industries and the resultant loss of value-add.

In the UK, we're even now offshoring the service industry jobs that were to replace our manufacturing industry. The Government has not yet grasped this or is pretending that it's not happening.

I was intending to leave my tuppeneth about inflation and interest rates, but I had too much to drink last night and I need to go back to bed.

Went long a bit earlier, stop now at breakeven, so I'll see where it is an hour or two when the room's stopped going round in circles.

LOL Hilary

I'm a bit cautious about a long. Cable looking quite overbought now so unless the 11am news pushes it higher I think we may see an unwinding of the OB indicators.

Overboughtness can unwind itself through consolidation, Harlosh, although it doesn't look particularly overbought to me.
I'm accidentally long since last Friday - forgot I'd left an order in at 1.8765 the day before. In essence, cable's just back up to where it was a week ago, and I'm hopeful that it'll break through this time.
Well, the US data this afternoon should sort it out one way or the other.

Indeed Choccie. I'm just looking/hoping for a better entry.

Chocs....I like your accidental trading style. Only wish we can all do that!

Sshhhh!. Quiet please, everybody. Hil is a bear with a sore head this morning.

No. She's a bull with a sore head.

I feel decidely unwell having just made Salade Marco Polo for lunch. It's the smell of the crab sticks. Probably wasn't a very wise move.

Think you'll find she's a dizzy bull this morning.

Not to be emulated, BAk - I didn't mean to leave the order in :S
But yesterday was a good day to add :)

Oops Hils snap :o)

Looking for a break through the 70/80 level for a possible push up to 1.9050.
Well that's the plan :)

Looks like it could be turning down so I'm out.

I could do with another nap. I'd lay out in the garden for the afternoon, but the sun's a bit low.

I'd get blown away if I tried that.
Getting a smidge blustery.

Time for some beans on toast then :)