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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Harlosh - 20 Sep 2006 19:37 - 5992 of 11056

thanks Hilary

bakko - 20 Sep 2006 19:52 - 5993 of 11056

Thanks Hils.

Cables's settled down now but i'm guessing at the initial spike down was due to the fact that despite holding at 5.25% there is still a hint of inflation in the background

chocolat - 20 Sep 2006 23:56 - 5994 of 11056

On the contrary, Bak - inflation worries are what is sending the dollar down.

I read this snippet today:

"Manufacturing down 3.4 million since '98
AFX

NEW YORK (AFX) - Losses of manufacturing jobs are bringing the number of manufacturing jobs to lows not seen since the 1950s, according to the Economic Policy Institute, a liberal think tank.
The current drop off in manufacturing jobs is 'truly staggering,' the EPI's Jared Bernstein and L. Josh Bivens wrote Wednesday. Since manufacturing peaked in 1998, the sector is down 3.4 million jobs to 14.2 million workers.
Wages haven't fared much better; real wages for blue collar workers are down 2.7 percent over the past 12 months. For all non-managers, real wages were flat for the last year, according to EPI."

It's all very well suggesting that a cooling in the housing market and falling energy prices might have temporarily stemmed the urge to raise rates to curb inflation, but I go with the theory that inflation will creep higher regardless of these factors, transient as they are, and the Fed might lose some of its inflation-fighting credibility with investors. Together with companies and consumers, they could change their behaviour in ways that could worsen inflation.

For instance, companies could boost prices even more and employees might demand bigger pay increases. It's already happening over here.

MightyMicro - 21 Sep 2006 00:37 - 5995 of 11056

It's too late at night and I'm too tired to make this case both coherently and in full, but I'm convinced that both Governments and fiscal authorities here and in the U.S. have failed to grasp the extent of the destruction of their manufacturing industries and the resultant loss of value-add.

In the UK, we're even now offshoring the service industry jobs that were to replace our manufacturing industry. The Government has not yet grasped this or is pretending that it's not happening.

hilary - 21 Sep 2006 08:18 - 5996 of 11056

I was intending to leave my tuppeneth about inflation and interest rates, but I had too much to drink last night and I need to go back to bed.

Went long a bit earlier, stop now at breakeven, so I'll see where it is an hour or two when the room's stopped going round in circles.

Harlosh - 21 Sep 2006 09:14 - 5997 of 11056

LOL Hilary

Harlosh - 21 Sep 2006 09:17 - 5998 of 11056

I'm a bit cautious about a long. Cable looking quite overbought now so unless the 11am news pushes it higher I think we may see an unwinding of the OB indicators.

chocolat - 21 Sep 2006 09:54 - 5999 of 11056

Overboughtness can unwind itself through consolidation, Harlosh, although it doesn't look particularly overbought to me.
I'm accidentally long since last Friday - forgot I'd left an order in at 1.8765 the day before. In essence, cable's just back up to where it was a week ago, and I'm hopeful that it'll break through this time.
Well, the US data this afternoon should sort it out one way or the other.

Harlosh - 21 Sep 2006 10:29 - 6000 of 11056

Indeed Choccie. I'm just looking/hoping for a better entry.

bakko - 21 Sep 2006 10:40 - 6001 of 11056

Chocs....I like your accidental trading style. Only wish we can all do that!

MightyMicro - 21 Sep 2006 10:51 - 6002 of 11056

Sshhhh!. Quiet please, everybody. Hil is a bear with a sore head this morning.

hilary - 21 Sep 2006 11:11 - 6003 of 11056

No. She's a bull with a sore head.

I feel decidely unwell having just made Salade Marco Polo for lunch. It's the smell of the crab sticks. Probably wasn't a very wise move.

chocolat - 21 Sep 2006 11:12 - 6004 of 11056

Think you'll find she's a dizzy bull this morning.

Not to be emulated, BAk - I didn't mean to leave the order in :S
But yesterday was a good day to add :)

chocolat - 21 Sep 2006 11:13 - 6005 of 11056

Oops Hils snap :o)

chocolat - 21 Sep 2006 11:27 - 6006 of 11056

Looking for a break through the 70/80 level for a possible push up to 1.9050.
Well that's the plan :)

hilary - 21 Sep 2006 12:47 - 6007 of 11056

Looks like it could be turning down so I'm out.

I could do with another nap. I'd lay out in the garden for the afternoon, but the sun's a bit low.

chocolat - 21 Sep 2006 12:59 - 6008 of 11056

I'd get blown away if I tried that.
Getting a smidge blustery.

Time for some beans on toast then :)

hilary - 21 Sep 2006 13:32 - 6009 of 11056

Beanz meanz fartz, Choccy. It would be more than a smidge blustery.

Bit of premature ejection there in offloading my long. And I missed a chance to get back in again.

edit. Managed to get some.

chocolat - 21 Sep 2006 13:42 - 6010 of 11056

Oh I know Hils, but I have to get even with the boys here sometimes ;)

Roll on Philly Fed then :)
Oops and those pesky indicators

bakko - 21 Sep 2006 13:43 - 6011 of 11056

Not got a single pip today. Sat on the sidelines and watched it head north.

Soooo depressing :-((
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