Website http://www.svb.co.uk/

Dear All,

Previously know at Lloyd's as Spreckley, Villiers, Burnhope, here is the chartists/fundamentals discussion thread:-



The Earnings Per Share are forecast at 4.40p 2002 rising to 8.90p 2003 so at 49.50p the PER is 11.25 2002 dropping to 5.56 2003 not exactly demanding in view interim result.

I think SVB which has hardly moved comparative to KIN, WUN, AML, GOS, HSX, BRE yet is worth more than current valuation by miles ie 8.90/4.40 =102.27% PEG Price Earnings Growth 2003/2002, and price of stock shows PER Price Earnings Ratio is utterly ludicrously cheap at prospective 2003 5.56 times EPS for a company growing profits at 102.27% per annum.

I set a value criteria of 200% to 225% of prospective NTA 2003 ie 2 to 2.25 times 73p=146p, to 164.25p, or a PER at say 17.50 to 20 times ie say FTSE Sector average of 2003 prospective 8.90p=155.75p to 178p.

None of the above seems vaguely rampy if you consider SVB was trading at above 160p 15 months ago in June 2001 and reached 180p in 1998 according to NUMIS reports.

Short Term Hourly Ticks:-



Adjusted NTA 62p, Adjusted NAV 68p per NUMIS report 24.06.2002

Profits before tax forecast at &pound10.90m 2002 rising to &pound23.60m 2003, so at market cap of &pound96.28m we are being asked to pay 4.08 times 2003 forecast PBT, per NUMIS-LOL!

Short term chart:-



All IMHO, NAG,DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash

Lots of big sales today. Is it something someone said?

Well good old SVB going down. I have done some research and as I understand it the worries that hold this back have little substance. They have terribly bothched the ADP announcement. Syndicate 1212 the one with the alleged blackhole was the recipient of the cover, but for some reason two pertinent facts were missed off, namely how much did the ADP cost and at what level did it come into effect in respect of the last announced reserve position. Well having blown it they could not clarify the position because they are too close to the results! I would expect that there is no black hole and that the cost of the coverage is not great.

LONDON (AFX) - SVB Holdings PLC said The 2003 year of account has started
well, with an average rate increase across both syndicates in January and
February of 21 pct, and Specialty business achieving 39 pct.
According to SVB Syndicates Ltd, the Lloyd's managing agency owned by SVB
Holdings, all syndicates are forecast to produce profits in excess of 10 pct for
the 2002 year of account, assuming a normal loss development pattern.
Regarding the syndicates's performance in the 2001 year of account, SVB
Holdings said that, excluding the exceptional losses of Sept 11, these
syndicates are forecasting profits.


Is this good, bad or indifferent?

Fantastic knews on the fund raising, this should now fly