S&P Futures Nikkei +30 Hang Seng +193
7:30am Futures FTSE -9 Techmark -2 DAX -20 Dow -7 S&P -0.9 Nasdaq -2.5
News Headlines: Lloyds TSB said on Monday that its plan to concentrate on UK financial services will deliver improved performance by the second half of 2004. It said it is aiming for a minimum total capital ratio of 9 percent and that it does not need to sell businesses to meet that goal. Royal Bank of Scotland said it had agreed to buy Irish rival First Active Plc FTA.I for 887 million euros. The 6.2 euro per share offer for First Active, which runs 173 branches in the Republic of Ireland and 90 branches in Northern Ireland, is a 33 percent premium to Friday's closing price. Scottish and Newcastle said it had sold its UK pubs to the private-equity backed Spirit Amber group for 2.51 billion pounds. Scottish & Southern Energy said it had agreed to buy out its partners in Medway Power Ltd for 89.8 million pounds in cash. Smiths Group British aerospace said it had been picked by Lockheed Martin Aeronautics to supply cable assemblies in a contract potentially worth over $500 million. The contract marks an increase to the firm's work for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter programme.   United Kingdom Calendar (F)inals (I)nterim    United States  (GMT)   Europe & World (GMT) Mon 6th Oct Reporting Company Updates Financial Data HIT Entertainment (F) PBT 39.5m exp.Lloyds TSB Strategy Update 10.30 UK Sep NTC, Deloitte &REC Report on Jobs     11.00 EMU July Retail Trade m/m 0.5% Good Trading!      david@FTSEDOW.com     www.FTSEDOW.com Pivot Calculator

any1 taking the kgf bid seriously?

FTSE PP FOR MONDAY

R2 4334
R1 4304
PP 4255.4
S1 4225.4
S2 4176.4

Close was just under R3 after loosing 2.9pts in the auction!

WEEKLY FTSE PP

R2 4417.2
R1 4345.6
PP 4213.8
S1 4142.2
S2 4010.4

Close was above R1 on last weeks weekly pp!

For next week as you know I,m biased to the short side but will try to be objective here!The Dow jones has opened up the highs on the FIB range as it is now above 9513 (61.8%) as has the ftse, so there is a good chance of seeing the highs again, I personally feel we will see as least 4300 which is the lower trendline of the yearly uptrend channel, if broken pos test weekly R1, R2 too far imho! This week we have gone from a too much too soon fall to a too much too soon rally, at least volatility is back in vogue! Ftse has closed about my 60min sig line and my long term sig line so they are still bullish, Rsi not quite overbought! Monday still a bullish day, into Tue will be looking for the profit taking!. I write this as the Dj is at 9623! IMHO

Have a good weekend and thanks for all the Bday wishes this week!





STOCKCHARTS
10/3: Nice sharp rally with an inverted RSI pattern than what is usually shown with price and the RSI. Things got way overbought without a new price high.
I mentioned last week that second waves often retrace most, if not all of the preceeding move.
Especially at major trend changes.
Note that the late day sell-off is a bearish omen because we failed to post a new high for the move.
The bull case is that this is part of another wave up to much higher prices, or perhaps part of the final leg up of a larger upward correction.
The count that fits best with the pattern to date is shown.
Note that this is an excellent agressive short trade here because the cover spot is very close by, and, if this count is correct, the potential decline from these levels is large.
From a risk/reward standpoint, this is as good as it gets. If it rallies you cover, with a small loss, if it declines you catch a major move down..
Conservative sell doesn't happen until we breach the wave 1 low in a fast decline from here.
A rally above 9680 says this is either another leg up, the extent of which can't be determined by the pattern visible on this chart, or this is part of a B/4th wave.
The latter says we are still in a trading range and we decline to re-test 9200 before the final leg of the move up.
Sentiment is as bullish as I've seen it in a while, with no bad 'news' on the horizon as far as anyone can tell.





Updated 10/3 for Monday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 10/6
UP Above 9,600
DN Below 9,500

Continuation
Dow rallies Open, pulls back late in the afternoon.

From prior commentary, "...The index has now formed a tight consolidation at the highs of the 15 Minute Chart from 9,445 to 9,510, which indicates continued strength. An upside break from the consolidation at 9,445 will likely spark a continuation toward the 9,600 level..."
The Dow shot out of the gate and rallied 175 points at the high of the session, seen in the 15 Minute Chart. However, the index gave back half its gains by day's end, closing the session higher by 85 points.

The upside break from the consolidation today led to a sharp rally for the session, but as we warned two days ago, the index was likely to show weakness near the 9,600 area, which it did today.

The index has formed a clear trend line beneath the lows of the recent four-day rally, seen in the 15 Min Chart. A downside break of this line at 9,550 will indicate that a further retracement will occur.

Otherwise, look for the index to hold at the highs within a trading range before direction is decided. An upside break through 9,670 will indicate strength.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow ended the day trending lower in the 1 Minute Chart. The index is forming a possible lower high in this timeframe, which points to a weak Open. Watch 9,560 down, and 9,585 up.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we are still Long the Dow from 9,381 and will move stops up to 9,500 for Monday's market, locking in 119 points on this move. We will stay Long above 9,600 and Shorts below 9,500, with 10 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each gapped up this morning and moved higher before finally giving out by day's end. Watch gap support Monday. *

Summary

The Dow rallied sharply this morning and continued higher throughout much of the session before giving back gains by day's end. The index continues to trend higher above a clear lower trend line, which we will watch for Monday's trading. A downside break through 9,500 will indicate weakness, with strength implied by moves above 9,600.

Thanks TP
Morning all

Long Granada, Marks

Mega Bucks,
my rtr chart looks like its in a down trend notwithstanding
the spike on Friday.
Resistance at 235, I reckon.

Another example today of how important it is to view the 2 day intraday
chart!

Really paid for itself today  :-)

snoball,

i should of made my self clear i am looking to short rtr all my other's are longs....:-)

well spotted least you are on the ball and do your home work...

Mega...

Hi megaBucks...

Watched rtr all day...just stayed weak all day...personally sold out friday to use funds for others...

Decided to short sage as Dow should start to run out of steam this week i would expect...though at the moment it's not...


Jules99.

Spread bet shorted it at 230.9 Mega Bucks.
I'll be watching the 40 ma though.

j99 & snoball

over the last 6 months rtr has been my best stock this year so far,have played it both ways long and short and made a lot of money on it:-)still have not made the committment yet but looking to go short again...in the morning:-)

hope you are well..snoball you have mam email j99 are you going to activate yours...

Mega...dyor nag etc etc

Crest to offer first figures on short-selling
By Caroline Merrell



CREST, the UK settlement company, yesterday launched a service to provide figures on short-selling the practice of selling shares not directly held by the investor among the shares of the UKs biggest companies.
The service was established after a regulatory investigation into short-selling by the Financial Services Authority (FSA), the chief City regulator.

Despite pressure to curb short-selling, the FSA decided that greater transparency would suffice. The service will provide details of stock lending of shares in the UKs biggest companies, but will not name the institutions carrying out the lending.

A spokesman for Crest yesterday said that the figures would indicate the levels of short-selling of shares in a particular company, but that the stock-lending figures would also include share trades that could not be defined as short-selling.

The call for a clampdown on short-selling came last year as the UK stock market reached new lows.

Companies were concerned that their shares were being punished unduly by investors who were short-selling in an attempt to profit from the short-term movement of prices.

The new service will cover the companies in the FTSE 350 as well as Irish companies with equivalent market capitalisation. Data will be provided on a daily and monthly basis, five days in arrears.

The service promises to clarify unexplained volatility in shares in the UKs leading companies.

Information is to be provided free for the first three weeks of October.

I like that 2 day 1 minute chart Crocodile.
Can't seem to get it on the MAM charts though.

snoball
Capture it from GNI then put into Corel Draw to add Text and lines. Then upload it to www.ftsedow.com, then post the thread!
phewwwwww
D.