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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 27th October (RTR)     

Crocodile - 26 Oct 2003 12:04

Premarket Futures 27th Oct FTSE +12 DAX +25 DOW +8 S&P -0.9 Nasdaq -1

1 Day 2 Day 5 Day - UK News

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FTSE 250

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FTSE Small Cap

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1 Day 2 Day 5 Day  Futures  US News

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S&P 500

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S&P Futures

DAX / CAC    Europe News

Nikkei +118   Hang Seng -4.6  Asia News

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UK/US charts have 1,2 or 5 day views. and now FT NEWS & Price link to UK, US & Asian markets. The Dax/CAC and Nikkei/Hang Seng are now switchable
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Carlton insists its merger with Granada is still on despite the recent forcing out of Carlton founder Michael Green as chairman of the merged firm

Canary Wharf: may consider other ways of boosting shareholder returns if it does not receive an acceptable bidAMEC said its joint venture with U.S. engineering firm Fluor was bidding for an Iraqi water and power contract worth up to $1.5 billion.Reuters reported a 10.9 percent fall in core subscription revenues , a touch better than market estimates and its own forecasts.Cadbury said by 2007 it was looking to cut costs by 400 million pounds a year and jobs by 10 percent. They also said trading was more or less in line with expectations. Thet are getting rid of 5500 jobs and closing some factories. It says it hoped to save 400 million pounds a year by 2007 from the plan, which will cost 900 million over the period.

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 Reuters (Q3) PBT 771-779 exp.Cadbury Schweppes (Investor presentation) Chorion Plc Consolidation Ex date

09:30 Aug index of distribution 3m, 0.8% prev.

American Express, Proctor & Gamble, Intl Paper

15:00 Sep home sales 6.3m exp. 15:00 Sep new homes 1128k exp.

Schering, Schwarz Pharma, Statoil

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

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ThePlayboy - 27 Oct 2003 07:13 - 6 of 12

MON FTSE PP

R2 4265.5
R1 4252.1
PP 4235.5
S1 4222.4
S2 4205.8

Close was below Fri PP after loosing .1 in a quiet auction!

WEEEKLY FTSE PP

R2 4441.6
R1 4340
PP 4277
S1 4175
S2 4111.6

Close was below the weekly PP!

DOW FIBS

61.8% 9694
50% 9656
38.2% 9619

If the dow can show some signs of strength tonight (atm 9536) will be looking for some short term gains next week with the ftse testing at least the weekly pp, this ties in with the 4238/275 FIB range it is in, 3yr downtrend also comes in around 4225 level, looking a little oversold atm! Dow has a few gaps to close circa 9650/9700 aswell, cannot see the ftse touching 4300 for a while, if it so 4310/30 max, will be looking to sell the rallies next week! IMHO


Updated 10/24 for Monday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 10/27
UP Above 9,600
DN Below 9,500

Late-Day Rally
Dow holds at 9,500, then rallies to the Close.

From prior commentary, "...The fact that the consolidation has formed at the lows of the recent decline hints at further weakness in the medium term...A break below 9,550 will likely spark another sharp push lower..."
The Dow got the break below 9,550 this morning and trended lower throughout most of the session, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart. However, despite being down by as much as 115 points, the index managed rallied sharply to the Close to ultimately end the day lower by just 31 points.

Since the Dow ended the day with such a sharp rally, we could see the strength spill over to Monday's trading. An upside break through the upper trend line at 9,600, seen in the 15 Minute Chart, could spark an extended move higher due to current strength.

However, the index continues to trade within a bearish expanding range, as seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. A downside break usually occurs from such a pattern, so we will remain cautious until a solid break from the range is seen. A downside break through the bottom of the range at 9,500 will likely lead to another decline.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow ended the day right at the day's resistance level of 9,583, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. Use this level as a fulcrum for Monday's Open; Short below and Long above.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we are still the Short the Dow from 9,641 and will move stops down to 9,600 for Monday's market. We will stay Short below 9,500 and will look to enter Longs above 9,600 Monday, with 10 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ gapped down once again today, but ended the session with a solid rally, as did the S&P. Each index continues to trade within a tight sloping channel, which we will focus on Monday. *

Summary

The Dow ended the day with a sharp rally today despite losing over 100 points earlier in the session. An upside break through 9,600 Monday could extend the late-day rally, while a break below 9,500 will indicate further weakness.


Crocodile - 27 Oct 2003 08:02 - 7 of 12

Morning all
Thanks TP

Druid2 - 27 Oct 2003 08:26 - 8 of 12

Morning all - tks Croc & TP.
tyketto - will watch those shares mentioned - tks.

little woman - 27 Oct 2003 09:43 - 9 of 12

I've given up - but I'm trading really short term for really small profits - so hopefully by the end of the day I'm mostly cash again.....

stockbunny - 27 Oct 2003 16:24 - 10 of 12

See RTR have gone up nicely on the back of not-so-great news and ALN has done pretty much the opposite - the numbers were actually not that bad but the added comments, updates in future progress seem to have overshadowed that...Seems IMHO like they have shot themselves in the foot!!!

little woman - 27 Oct 2003 16:28 - 11 of 12

mmm I must admit I purchased a few GSK first thing, which are currently breaking even. Tommorrow night they go ex divi so I hope they will go up enough during the day to cash in before ex div. I keep promising myself some for the long term, but as soon as they make 5-10% I cash in...... (and if I get one of the 4 div's as well I'm not complaining.)

Too many shares go up on bad news, and down on good!

little woman - 27 Oct 2003 16:37 - 12 of 12

End of the month coming, have you put in your prediction/guess to the FTSE comp yet?
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