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Traders Thread - Wednesday 10th December (KGF)
Crocodile - 09 Dec 2003 22:05
| Premarket Futures | FTSE -18 | DAX -25 | DOW -11 | S&P Unch | Nasdaq +1 |
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U.S. stocks and bonds tumbled after the Fed altered the language in the policy statement following its last interest rate meeting of the year to a slightly more bullish outlook on the economy. The Nasdaq composite fell 40.53 to 1908.32 S&P down 9.12 to 1060.18 and the Dow Jones down 41.85 to 9923.42. It did make 10,000 for a brief moment Intraday as expected U.K Chancellor Gordon Brown will unveil his pre-budget report today against a backdrop of surging spending and sluggish tax receipts which threaten to bust his own much-vaunted fiscal rules. The Chancellor will need all his political guile to present his worst ever public borrowing total while arguing he is not facing a black hole in the public coffers. Abbey National The FSA said it had fined the bank a total of 2,320,000 pounds for breaches of its money laundering rules and for an inadequate monitoring of key regulatory risks. Kingfisher said it expected tough trading in the last quarter of its financial year as it reported a big rise in third-quarter retail profit. "With an uncertain outlook for consumer spending, combined with strong prior year comparative sales growth figures, the fourth quarter is likely to be challenging," Profit rose 21.3 percent to 179.1 million pounds in its third quarter with like-for-like sales up 3.6 percent. Stagecoach Group train and bus operator posted a 20-percent fall in first-half profits to 60.3 million pounds compared with 75.2 million pounds in the previous year and said trading so far in the second half was in line with its expectations. Reg Vardy car dealer posted a 35 percent rise to 24.6 million pounds in first-half profit and said it was on track to have 100 dealerships by April 2005.Telewest Communications and NTL are heading for a merger before the end of 2005 when both groups' hefty bank facilities run out, (The Guardian newspaper) Britsih Airways to get European green light on merger with Iberia |
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Blick (F), Burndene Investments (F), DS Smith (I), Hardys & Hansons (F), Henlys Group (F), iSoft Group, (I), Kingfisher (Q3), Mentmore (I), Northgate Info Solutions (I), Numis Corporation (F), Photo-Me International (I), Stagecoach (I) BAA Nov Traffic 12.30 Chancellor Gordon Browns Pre-Budget Report |
Digex (Q3), Joule (Q3), Novadel Pharma (Q3) |
07.00 Nov German Wholesale Price Index flat exp. 07.00 Oct German Trade Balance 13.9bn exp. |
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Ex Dividend: AbacGroup (6.8), Aberdeen Asset Management (2), Acal (7), Aggregate Industries (1.13), BSS Group (4.15), Bellway (13.8), Business Post Group (5.95), Castings (2.38), Country and Metropolitan (2.6), De La Rue (4.4), Dyson Group (1), East Surrey Holdings (4.75), Emap (7.6), Ennstone (0.35), Fenner (3.85), Fuller Smith & Turner (5.1), Goldshield Group (1), Headlam Group (3.6), Helphire Group (2), Jarvis (4.5), JD Sports (2.86), Luminar (3.67), Northumbrian Water (2.32), Pillar Property (2.4), Quintain Estates (2.75), Richmond Foods (5.5), Telecom Pl(4.5), VP Plc (1.6), Wincanton (3.48), Yates Group (1.65) |
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Druid2
- 10 Dec 2003 07:59
- 6 of 23
Douggie - 10 Dec 2003 08:03 - 7 of 23
ThePlayboy
- 10 Dec 2003 08:11
- 8 of 23
we've seen a lot of flipping and flopping. Once again the sentiment picture is trying to show a spark of fear that would presage a more serious decline. As we mentioned yesterday, we've seen buying lately come in when the tank fills to 20%...and if it doesn't come there it could happen at 50%. If, however, this is a bona fide mid-term a**-whipping in the making then the tank will fill past 50%.
Seasonality supports a flat-to-down market only until December 15, and then reverses and gets wickedly bullish. ( 4 more down days and then a reversal would be consistent with buying coming in at 20-50% on the tank.)
While I don't have a cool graphic for this note, it's worth talking about just how frequently the market rises during the much-vaunted Santa Claus rally (which we clearly demonstrated in this past weekend's Closing Bell is most likely to begin on or about December 16). In looking over the data for the SPX since 1962 here's what we found:
In Decembers that actually trade on the 31st of the month (like this year when that date does not fall on a weekend) the market rises in the last 11 trading days of the month 87% of the time. (26 wins, 4 losses). In Decembers that do not trade on the 31st the index rises in the last 10 trading days 73% of the time (8 wins, 3 losses). Combine these two sets and we have 34 ups and 7 downs for an 83% winning percentage.
Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus (though some of us may like to think of him as the Clausenberger Rebbe). He launches his sleigh about 9 days ahead of the holiday, he is extremely likely to bring toys, and his infectious holiday cheer tends to hang around until Jan 6. Betting against his showing up is about as long a shot as you'll find in the stock market.
ThePlayboy
- 10 Dec 2003 08:17
- 9 of 23
Melnibone - 10 Dec 2003 09:07 - 10 of 23
There are some good comments in the above posts, I'll
need to read them again and fit the dates into what
I want to do.
LGEN seems to get a little weaker with each FTSE
up/down cycle. I have to keep dragging my hand off
the 'Buy' button. (Imagine the wheelchair bound Peter Sellars
in that famous film where they bombed Russia by mistake.)
I'm still wondering if this is the effect of AVZ or just profit
taking.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 10 Dec 2003 09:29
- 11 of 23
I don't seem to be missing much except ETL - what happened there? (fortunetly I offloaded half of my holding for a quick profit two weeks ago, pity I didn't offload more!)
Melnibone - 10 Dec 2003 09:37 - 12 of 23
have as support levels at 1059/9920.
It doesn't know whether to drop to S2 or head back towards
the PP in an attempt to close the gap open if the US
retraces some of yesterdays losses this afternoon.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 10 Dec 2003 10:23 - 13 of 23
If it holds here there are some possible intraday
scalps for a retrace towards lunchtime.
Still too early to go for them, 5 min candles are still
trending down, need to flatten out or we'll drop to 4320.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 10 Dec 2003 10:32 - 14 of 23
It needs to get above this rapidly or the Bears will
take control again as Bulls who bought in at 270p start
to take dwindling profits.
Melnibone.
ThePlayboy
- 10 Dec 2003 11:24
- 15 of 23
Melnibone - 10 Dec 2003 14:51 - 16 of 23
internal piece of my porch ceiling. It's a flat roof that sprang
a leak with the usual results. It's ready for plastering
and painting now.
I see that S2 failed and we got the 4320 plus a spike lower.
I hope TP is right and we get 4280/4300, the bottom of the
trend channel just before the possible start of a Christmas
rally would be ideal.
As usual, need direction from the US now. If it flat-lines
to 1630 Hrs and then moves I'll scream!
Melnibone.
ThePlayboy
- 10 Dec 2003 14:57
- 17 of 23
Crocodile - 10 Dec 2003 15:18 - 18 of 23
Melnibone - 10 Dec 2003 15:42 - 19 of 23
As well as LGEN dropping out of the trading channel,
it looks like Old Mutual(OML) is following it.
I don't think I'll be buying into any speciality finance
shares until this fund trading debacle is done and dusted.
I think traders are looking nervously around trying to spot
the next cockroach. You seldom get one on its own.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 10 Dec 2003 16:08 - 20 of 23
With a bit of luck they'll drop to 1051/9850
after the FTSE close.
This would give us a FTSE open tomorrow at the
bottom of the trend channel.
We live in hope, but no doubt they're just toying
with us and will leave the FTSE in no-mans land as usual.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 10 Dec 2003 16:36 - 21 of 23
Keeping an eye on SBRY. It's coming down nicely and needs to drop
about another 8 or 10p to hit the bottom of the uptrend channel.
If it hits and holds there is a good chance that a Christmas
rally will bounce it up again. Will watch and see and let the
market guide me as usual.
Melnibone
Fundamentalist
- 10 Dec 2003 16:42
- 22 of 23
Druid2
- 10 Dec 2003 19:22
- 23 of 23
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