Following the profit warning at  WH Smith I believe Woolworths could well be the next high street dinosaur to fall. Very strong competition from Supermarkets on all the goods they sell including confectionary, records, cheap and nasty electrical goods and toys. The shops look old fashioned and very tired so I can not see how they are going to survive. The chart looks weak as well with the one year uptrend being broken and a fall below 42p could be followed by a quick drop to 38p and then ?? I look forward to your thoughts on it. (Opening price 44.25p)

Kiss of Death for this one in that The Sun has made it one of their 6 Tips to Follow for 2004.
On a more serious note they have undergone Cost Cutting and are now looking at modernising many of their stores, which has benefited many of their competitors. Also the guy who owns Joe Bloggs, is gradually building up a stake and has a good track record and it is also rumoured that Wallmart may come in. Similarly if whoever loses out in the bids for SPAR, may also get interested...who knows.

Like the Sun says, the retail sector is predicting a poor year but maybe this one could buck the trend. I am not involved, but if I were to get into retail for 2004 , this would be the one...rgds piston broke

Croc,

Ihave to agree, I see little to commend their stores, and the rather varied range of goods they sell are all on sale elsewhere, at equally competitive prices.

WLW certainly have felt the effect of supermarkets diversifying their product range, and to be honest, there is little for sale in WLW that isn't in Asda, or large Tesco's or Sainsbury's, and as people food shop there, are less likely to trek to WLW afterwards, IMHO.



piston,

A takeover would make sense for someone looking to establish a nationwide range of stores, as WLW normally occupy prime sites on the high street.

Andy.

Interesting thanks,
Now short with a 5% stop loss

This had a broker price target of 55p a few months ago...

After looking at the local Woolworth store I did not consider it likely to be a 'gold mine' for the Company. My thoughts were that looking at the array of thousands of small items in close rows was that it could well be a shoplifters paradise. These first impressions deterred me from investing in Woolworths and with hind sight I don't think I have missed a lot.
Just my thoughts, makes a change from TA.

Thanks all for your comments,
I am currently running a small short and will close it fairly sharpish on any signs of strengh. However they do have a trading update a week on Thursday so I would not be surprised to see some selling ahead of that.
D.

hi
interesting comments...

i bought in the summer at 30p, immediately after seeing the 'SELL' note in the telegraph

if ever there is a paper to be contrary too it has to be thet one!

i also expect unimpressive comments from 'woolies' soon, but fact remains that they are in every high street
they do not require a car trip to access
each visit can be even a small spend for the 'hard up'
but they still spend

dont forget when it gets tough (economy wise)
its seldom the poor that stop spending

i dont think woolies target the likes of city investors........as customers i mean

happy new year

Difficult to call Woolies - I just bought a 5" B&W TV there for 10.99 including the mains adaptor, aerial and it picks up radio as well. At that price there can't have been any profit. OK it#s manual tuning which is awkward but it takes up little space where it's needed, so I don't miss the start of a prog. (etc.)
Their store layout is confusing but I'm not sure that's a problem - their stock-care (esp. plants) leaves a lot to be desired and whenever I buy rose-bushes I regret it a few months later. However, they do have good stock there! I was almost tempted to buy a tool-chest - a neat design I'd not seen elsewhere.
However, as an investment (now)I'm wary - similar multiples have had a bad Xmas and I don't expect Wollies will be any different.
Regards

09/01 12:28 UK Retail Gloom Confirmed By December Sales Data
By James Hall
LONDON (Dow Jones)--As the trickle of U.K. retailers' Christmas trading statements builds up to a torrent next week, new data suggests that U.K. trading over the festive season was poorer than expected.
While certain product areas and retailers defied the gloom - for example, clothing retailer Next PLC (NXT.LN) and the U.K. supermarkets - it is now clear that December 2003 was a bad month.
According to trade body the British Retail Consortium, or BRC, same-store sales declined by 0.2% in the month up to 27 Dec. Some analysts had expected this figure to be a 0.5% gain.
The three-month cumulative figure - that's combined rolling data from October through December - fell 0.5% on a same-store basis, making it the weakest since mid-1999. And the 2-year cumulative figure - showing sales growth of 1.5% - has fallen to a year-low.
"It's clearly disappointing," said Evolution Beeson Gregory analyst Nick Bubb.
Next week, when the high street's big guns are rolled out to present their sales data, is key. Marks & Spencer PLC (MKS.LN), Argos-owner GUS PLC (GUS.LN), Dixons PLC (DXNS.LN) and Boots PLC (BOOT.LN) will all update the market - and some analysts expect fireworks.
"We would be very nervous about M&S (despite its food business), and quite nervous about HMV PLC (HMV.LN) and Woolworths PLC (WLW.LN)," said EBG's Bubb.
Trading in the month followed a definite pattern: a busy first week gave way to a quieter two weeks in the middle. This in turn gave way to a strong final five days before Christmas, aided by the fact that the big day fell on a Thursday. This was just enough to push shopper numbers up 0.1% on December 2002, according to SPSL, a company that tracks the volume of consumers in stores.
The rush of bargain-hungry shoppers to post-Christmas sales provided a much-needed boon to this figure.
But more important than shopper numbers was the prices at which nervous retailers were selling goods. Price-cutting before Christmas was widespread, with only a handful of retailers holding their nerves and leaving prices unchanged.
The full impact that discounting - both before and after Christmas - has had on retailers' profit margins remains to be seen, but it can only be negative.
"Whilst November was poor, the BRC data suggests that December has been worse, particularly in terms of profitability given a strong surge in growth after Christmas in the Sales, when product was heavily discounted," said Matthew McEachran, an analyst at Investec Securities.
According to the BRC, sectors that performed well are food, electricals and health and beauty. So the market expects sturdy updates from Boots, Dixons and Carphone Warehouse PLC (CPW.LN).
But clothing was weak, despite a pickup in the opening days of the sales.
However, it's not all doom and gloom. John Lewis Partnership (LEJ.YY) - the privately-held retail group that owns 25 department stores and the Waitrose food chain - said Friday that sales for the week to Jan. 2 rose 14.1% on last year. Granted, the department stores were on full sale, but it shows that customers are still spending, albeit selectively. Indeed, SPSL said that Saturday Dec. 27 was the busiest shopping day of the year, with numbers 2.5% higher than the same day the previous year.
Internet shopping also had a bonanza year. According to fraud prevention company Retail Decisions PLC (RTD.LN), online sales post-Christmas rose 50% among companies that use its technology.
Food retailers too have had a field day. William Morrison PLC (MRW.LN) said Friday that same-store sales for the six weeks to Jan. 4 rose 10.2%. This is a feat that rival J Sainsbury PLC (SBRY.LN) is unlikely to repeat when it reports Monday, but this is more to do with internal factors than external ones.
The retail sector has already been rocked by profit warnings in the past month from WH Smith PLC (SMWH.LN), Matalan PLC (MTN.LN), Austin Reed PLC (ARD.LN) and Brown & Jackson PLC (BRJK.LN).
It is unlikely they will be the last.

07/01 13:09 NEWS SNAP: DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Brown & Jackson PLC (BRJK.LN), the retailer behind the Poundstretcher chain of U.K. discount stores, Wednesday said it's unlikely to make a profit for the year ending February and disastrous trading over Christmas will set back its recovery program by a year.
Brown & Jackson's bombshell - analysts had penciled in pretax profit of up to GBP10 million - sent shares plunging. At 1305 GMT, its shares were down 26% at 64 pence.

HBOS now has a 3% stake in Woolies - see news under WLW today.
Interesting....Some confidence from the institutional level.

All I would say is this: WLW had a 'mare previously and changes were made to stocking, staffing, stores and management. Those sort of turnarounds usually succeed. WHSM is further back than this, but note that the shares have almost recovered the Profit Warning ground lost last week, so even if WLW sales are flat, doesn't mean the shares will tank. I have no position in this stock BTW.

OK so sales were at the lower end of expectations today,
but against a few other retailers of late, WLW have given
a very encouraging trading update and importantly they are not
sitting on unsold stock.
The movement this am downwards of the share price seems very
harsh - ok only a couple of pence down but in WLW terms this is
a lot! No fair!!!!!!!

End of speech from the unoffical WLW fan-club.