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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Tuesday 10th February (BP.)
Crocodile - 09 Feb 2004 21:07
| UK PreMarket Futures | FTSE -10 | DAX Unch | DOW -1 | S&P -0.2 | Nasdaq +1 |
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US Blue chips see-sawed back into the red where they were joined by the Nasdaq as tech stocks slipped. In Europe Phillips produced good results on demand for flat screens. UBS bank Q4 net profit soars past expectations. Renault produces better than expected 23% rise. BP the world's second largest oil company made a profit of $2.667 billion below analysts average forecasts of $3.03 billion with a flat Q4 profit but said it intended to resume share buybacks. Bookham Technology who have never made a profit mae a smaller loss on cost cutting and higher sales. Carillion construction group has won a contract to maintain certain highways in Warwickshire, central England, worth up to 84 million pounds. Business Post said it would offer a bulk business mail service from April after signing a deal with state postal operator Royal Mail to use part of its delivery network. Enodis food-equipment maker returned to profit in Q1 after cost cutting and forecast modest market growth in 2004. They had a profit of 2.1 million pounds compared with a loss of 200,000 PZ Cussons soap maker posted a 28 percent rise in first-half profit but warned the recent slide in the U.S. dollar would hit second-half results. Galen Holdings drugmaker said Q1earnings more than doubled as it benefited from recent acquisitions and said it viewed the rest of 2004 with confidence. Earnings per share leapt 139 percent to 30.3 U.S. cents in the three months with analyst forecasts ranged from 26.6-27.9 cents. |
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Aquarius Platinum (I), Galen (Q1) Alphameric (F), Bookham Technology (F), BP (Q4), Brandon Hire (F), BWD Securities (F) Dobbies Garden Centre (F), Enodis (Q1) nCipher (F), Quantica (F), Baggeridge Brick (AGM), Fountains (AGM), Holidaybreak (AGM) Paragon Group of Companies (AGM), Victrex (AGM)Dec trade (09:30) |
Viacom (Q4) Prudential Financial (Q4) |
Bouygues (Q4) Renault (F) Valeo (F) Rhoen-Klinikum |
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Melnibone - 10 Feb 2004 09:01 - 6 of 41
I see that the US did in fact drop, but later than I anticipated,
and gave European stocks weakness this morning rather than yesterday
afternoon.
I don't know how much more SHEL is going to drop, but it's getting
cheap enough for me in relation to its peer group.
It doesn't seem to be hit very hard by the BP. effect and the chart
would appear to be showing signs of stabilizing.
I haven't worked out the yield yet, but at these levels it must be shaving
close to 5%. This will attract funds. As well as the undoubted selling that's
gone on, there has been some Bears jumping on the bandwagon with straight
shorts. They will have to close and buy at some point.
Have started to build a position in SHEL this morning.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 10 Feb 2004 09:29
- 7 of 41
Picked out a number of shares which are near highs, and put in a small short position in each one. I get paid a small amount of interest if I leave the position open and as long none of them go ex div to take off upwards, and if they do, I just keep topping up my position - then all I have to do is wait on each one as soon or later profit taking will pull the price down!
So far it is working remarkably well.
Melnibone - 10 Feb 2004 09:43 - 8 of 41
Intraday or trading ranges or longer term?
Melnibone.
little woman
- 10 Feb 2004 09:53
- 9 of 41
Melnibone - 10 Feb 2004 10:15 - 10 of 41
I'm still playing my UK stocks and trying to work out
a strategy to play the CAC and the DAX in Euros.
I noticed on another thread that you move money in and out
of CMC. When you moved it out, what was the currency exchange rate
like when you converted the Dollars from your US Dow plays back
into Sterling?
Was it comparable to the market rates?
Melnibone.
little woman
- 10 Feb 2004 10:31
- 11 of 41
(I checked with Thomas Cook and they were offering 1.78)
I didn't want to take a chance on the US$ strengthing as it could wipe out my cash.
stockbunny
- 10 Feb 2004 10:39
- 12 of 41
Just switched on to see the live stream is pretty nasty this morning
hopefully it will pick up later...Off for a cup of tea in the meantime.
Out of SHEL & BP - who likes who best?? Putting it simply LOL
Melnibone - 10 Feb 2004 11:21 - 13 of 41
That's a good point about the weakening Dollar helping
out with your small loss.
That's one of the reasons I'm looking to go into Euro stocks
at the moment rather than US Dollar stocks.
Most people seem to think that the Dollar could weaken further
against the /Euro.
Any US Dollar profits in my account would therefore devalue until
the Dollar stopped sliding. /Euro exchange should remain a
little less volatile. Not that I'm a Forex expert mind!
If the /$ hits 2.00, that could be a good time to start accumulating
Dollar profits in my account as the Dollar then, hopefully, starts
to strengthen back towards the mean and buys more Sterling.
Very complicated this CFD trading in different currencys, isn't it. :-)
Melnibone.
little woman
- 10 Feb 2004 11:24
- 14 of 41
Melnibone - 10 Feb 2004 11:29 - 15 of 41
10,450/10500 range or moves on to test the 10,600/10700
range.
I would expect the FTSE/DAX to hold 4400/4410 and 4090/4100
respectively until direction is given.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 10 Feb 2004 11:33
- 16 of 41
So I have decided to sell the shares I am holding (2 showing small losses, and 1 a spectacular profit (200+%), so may split the sale) over the next 4 quarters, to see what the US$ is doing. Hopefully in about 12 months things may have improved, so I can convert the money into sterling and transfer the money back to the UK and make a profit on the exchange rate.
Melnibone - 10 Feb 2004 11:57 - 17 of 41
Oil stocks have taken a beating. Hopefully we'll both do well.
OPEC seems a little unhappy at the Dollar weakness and are
finding reasons to keep the price up to counteract the revenue
drop.
This should keep the oil price up as demand lowers after the winter
months. I'm also reading that US oil reserves are low and
that China is also trying to increase reserves.
I think that oil price Bears are in for a bit of a wait yet for
lower prices, especially if Al Quaeda start making noises again.
Melnibone.
stockbunny
- 10 Feb 2004 13:23
- 18 of 41
although I suppose they could fall further...
little woman
- 10 Feb 2004 13:25
- 19 of 41
stockbunny
- 10 Feb 2004 13:27
- 20 of 41
to buy in, trying to work out where the bottom line will be.
stockbunny
- 10 Feb 2004 13:40
- 21 of 41
around 380-400p, goes ex-div around 20th Feb. 15.5p usual yrly total.
Shell (SHEL) ex-div 31 March it seems, floor around 360p, same div approx.
Got very confused with Shell SHEL is the usually traded one
and SHEB is something else?
Crocodile - 10 Feb 2004 13:44 - 22 of 41
little woman
- 10 Feb 2004 13:44
- 23 of 41
little woman
- 10 Feb 2004 13:48
- 24 of 41
stockbunny
- 10 Feb 2004 13:52
- 25 of 41
Sorry - I've completely confused you LW, my fault,
I am not sitting on any shares I would be looking to buy
into them - none to sell currently.
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