I know it's a bit early, but not going to be around much till after New Year now.

Right let's get the bragging over first!
I have had two tips before, in 2003, HEPH, listed on NASDAQ, in the drugs and anti-bio-terrorism sphere (slam-dunk at the time!) was my share of the year at $5. It reached $31, before coming back to $10.
And in 2004 it was GLD @12.75p. Year high of 27p, when I suggested selling half.

Sorry if you thought GLD was dull wait to see this one.............

Going for my bagger hat-trick tho'!

I wanted something that would be defensive as i think the market outlook is one at best of great uncertainty - but also a stock that is fast growing and profitable. I think I have found the perfect one! I have been building a small stake ever since i first spotted it. I did mention it once on the trading thread but to my satisfaction got no response.

Let's get one thing clear, this is NOT a short term trading stock. Only floated a few weeks ago and has had less than 100 trades. When i last looked there were only two posts on advfn! It is a buy and hold share.

It is Careforce Group. (CFG). Hardly flashy, but I think it is an absolute nugget. Placed at 106p, the shares have nudged up to 121.5p now. They provide homecare for the elderly who do not want to follow John Smith's mum's route and get dumped by offspring in a nursing home, but prefer to live alone at home. It is a very fragmented market at present with huge scope for consolidation. it operates in the South East alongside the likes of Supporta. One good thing is that none of those who supported the float seem remotely interested in banking a quick buck. The Royal Bank of Scotland has taken a near 6% stake, unusual in a company of this size.

It has a market cap of 16.6 million and the CEO is intriguing, Mike Rogers, who built up Nestor Healthcare from a small business. At flotation the company raised 7 million. So of its 16 million 7 million was in cash. They have already made one acquisition for 1.3 million, a business called Clarina which is already profitable and now with no recurring repayments should contribute about 400,000 next year, so have around 5.5 million still in the bank.

Careforce increased turnover from 7 to 12 million last year as a private business and made a profit around 500k. Turnover for the current year is surging again and could be close to 20 million, particularly as acquisitions add more, and profit around 1 million, though they could blow that forecast away, as this is a massive marketplace. Homecare services, on the whole, are inadequate at present and Careforce are one of few providers. Demand far outstrips supply.

I reckon a company like this with cash in the bank and already turning a profit could easily have been given a market cap in the 30-40 million bracket, so i can see this one doubling in the next 12-18 months. I am certain they will use the cash to grow the business by lucrative acquisitions. It is a proper, serious little business.

Buy at 123p, lock it away and hold "for the duration".

http://www.moneyam.com/cache/graph.php?epic=CFG

Hawick, I'm a new investor so have quite a bit to learn yet. Would appreciate any advice you or other experienced posters can give. CFG was brought to my attention a little while ago but unfortunately had no funds available. Now I do but the sp has has a good run in a relatively short period of time. My questions are:

1)Is this a poor entry point at this time?

2)Is the current price fair value for this share?

3)What's the best way for me to calculate fair value for a share?

Thanks

Hi in-front. There are no simple answers. My own feeling is that at some point in the next twelve months these will go to 250p. Is it a poor entry point? Depends on your investment's timespan and whether you think the rise is overdone. At some point there willl be profit taking, but if enough people think it is undervalued then it will go up until sellers are found.
Best way to calculate fair value. Tons of ways. Profit against market cap,(difficult as this company is very new and over the next couple of years profits should grow quickly), how are other shares in the sector valued? What are the chances of growth?
Sorry i can't be more helpful - if we knew the answers life would be so lovely!

Hawick
Poor entry point?
Maybe, but I believe a run up to 2 is quite possible short term and with a decent wedge behind you a small profit can be had. As you said depends on your investment stragegy. All evidence shows that this share is undervalued.
I like this comp and have slowly built a stake. (Have also topped up today)
Good work Hawick keep it up.

Your 2005 tip was a bit too good Hawick and didn't allow me time to get in before the price rocketed to 160!! Have sold my GLDas it looks to be marking time for a while, and am now looking around for a good prospect for 2005. Probably have missed the boat on CFG, unless it retraces.

Another very good spot my friend!

For info I have just put some money into Huveaux (HVX) and Ten Alps (TAL) and am hoping for good things from those two in 2005. Also like the look of Urbium (URM).

Hi beaufort! I particularly like HVX - good luck. If you are feeling you missed the boat with CFG, have a little look at STT. They recently made a very interesting acquisition. The new shares added 50% to the market cap, but the acquisition, on a p/e of just 5 (and growing) will more than double profits and i reckon STT should be above 200p. The shares retraced ahead of the acquisition and the share issue was massively oversubscribed - I tried to get some and ended up with none! I had to make do with buyingin the market!

Thanks Hawick. Will take a look at STT

Thanks Hawick.

How does this look now Hawick old chum? I see it's retraced in the general rout recently.

Is it still worth buying and locking away?
B1


Gave up on HVX - bit of a disaster. Have started to reinvest in some of the mining stocks now they have come back so far (eg AEN - up 10% yesterday!) Also like POG the goldminer which looks v underrated.

Their interims were a bit disappointing in my view and they now need to prove they can control costs. A good little business and like many worth tucking away at these levels. I still like the company but I think things will take longer than I hoped, may well come good next year. I got stop-lossed recently (albeit for a gain).
Not one of my better picks I am afraid, but nice to see JCR flying against the trend.