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Traders Thread - Monday 13th September (TRAD)     

Greystone - 12 Sep 2004 16:36

Zoltar - 12 Sep 2004 16:41 - 6 of 11

That's a good point, Greystone.

Digger - 12 Sep 2004 17:05 - 7 of 11

AFX


MARKETS

FTSE 100 4,545.0 up 7.0

FTSE 250 6,246.7 up 24.4

DJIA 10,313.07 up 23.97

Nasdaq Comp 1,894.31 up 24.66

S&P 500 1,123.92 up 5.54

Gold 401.50 usd (399.02 usd)

Oil - Brent Oct 40.20 usd (42.22 usd)



BREAKING NEWS - WEEKEND

* ITV makes its first move in a possible 340 mln stg takeover of media

rival SMG; advisers for ITV contacted SMG executives and talks took

place on Thursday - Sunday Express

* J SAINSBURY close to agreeing a 4 mln stg payoff for Sir Peter Davis,

the group's former chief executive; the large compensation package is

likely to spark outrage among investors - Sunday Times

* J SAINSBURY recognises it cannot win 3.6 mln stg bonus fight with

Davis - Sunday Telegraph

* New boss orders a U-turn at J SAINSBURY; back to basics - Justin

King stakes store's future on food sales - Financial Mail on Sunday

* Britain's housing crisis will deepen, according to the industry, with

builders reining back plans to boost output because of the downturn in

the market and growing uncertainty over whether the government will

deliver on its pledges to ease planning rules - Sunday Times

* Reuben brothers considering a 2 bln stg bid for CHELSFIELD, after the

property company received offers from rival Australian companies -

Sunday Times

* Reuben brothers ready to sell their 35 pct stake in CHELSFIELD,

making a takeover of the property firm increasingly likely - Observer

* NORTHERN ROCK preparing an attack to scupper the potential tie-up

between HBOS and ABBEY NATIONAL; senior managers at Northern Rock have

instructed competition lawyers to construct a case that HBOS buying

Abbey would be anti-competitive - Sunday Times

* HBOS gearing up to launch a 10 bln stg hostile bid for ABBEY

NATIONAL, possibly as early as this week - Observer

* Spain's Banco Santander will win clearance from the European

Commission on Friday to proceed with its planned 8.7 bln stg acquisition

of struggling high street bank ABBEY; but its plans may be scuppered by

HBOS, which could launch its expected rival bid for Abbey as early as

this week - Financial Mail on Sunday

* HBOS would present a 10 bln stg counteroffer for ABBEY NATIONAL as

good for competition and customers - Sunday Telegraph

* HBOS calls in KPMG integrators to make 10 bln stg ABBEY bid add up -

Independent on Sunday

* Santander Central Hispano could increase revenue synergies by an

additional 90 mln eur (61 mln stg) in its offer document to ABBEY

NATIONAL investors which could be posted as early as next week; SCH

could increase this figure from 110 mln eur to as much as 200 mln eur,

increasing the Spanish bank's chances of closing its 8.73 bln stg

takeover of the UK bank, according to analysts - Saturday FT

* Banco Santander Central Hispano expected to sweeten its 8.5 bln stg

proposed takeover of ABBEY NATIONAL by arranging for its shares to be

listed on the London Stock Exchange - Saturday Guardian

* Anthony Thompson, the high-profile head of childrenswear at MARKS &

SPENCER, poised to join the exodus of senior managers from the high

street institution - just a year after joining it - Sunday Express

* Opec poised to raise its target price range for a barrel of crude

this week - delivering a harsh message to oil-guzzling economies to get

used to a 30 usd floor under prices - Observer

* BP set to make 2.3 bln stg from the sale of around half of its

petrochemicals division; the company is aiming to float the Olefins and

Derivatives division of its chemicals business next year - Observer

* SHELL's 6 bln stg Sakhalin oil pipeline has not even been built yet,

but it has already caused a damaging oil slick that has enraged

environmentalists and could force potential lenders to pull funds -

Observer

* The sale by SHELL and BASF of their 4.1 bln stg plastics joint

venture set to turn into Europe's largest private equity deal to date -

Independent on Sunday

* Permira eyeing a 300 mln stg bid for the UK retail arm of furniture

retailer MFI - Sunday Express

* John Hancock, chief executive of MFI, fighting to save his job after

coming under pressure from shareholders angered by the company's profits

warning last week - Sunday Telegraph

* WPP on brink of securing 1 bln usd deal for Grey Global - Observer

* WPP poised to win 730 mln stg battle for Grey Global - Sunday

Telegraph

* Adrian Wright, former chief executive of Moss Bros, lining up an

ambitious double-swoop on the AUSTIN REED and Suits You high street

chains; industry sources suggest the move would cost about 70 mln stg -

Sunday Express

* Sir Alan Sugar plans comeback with new videophone; the AMSTRAD

chairman understood to have signed a deal with THUS to launch a

mass-market fixed-line videophone, named E3 - Independent on Sunday

* WILLIAM MORRISON SUPERMARKETS in advanced talks with TESCO to offload

about 10 stores in a deal worth up to 100 mln stg; Morrison will also

next week sign a deal estimated to be worth about 40 mln stg to sell

five stores to Wal-Mart-owned Asda - The Business

* WILLIAM MORRISON poised to launch a range of financial services to

rival Sainsbury's Bank and Tesco Personal Finance - Sunday Express

* EDINBURGH FUND MANAGERS becomes a last-minute addition to the 21

firms under investigation by the Financial Services Authority over the

split-capital investment trust debacle - Sunday Telegraph

* Battle erupts at Disney over Michael Eisner's successor; Disney's

board wants Robert Iger; rebel investors back ex-Viacom boss Mel

Karmazin - The Business

* LASTMINUTE.COM and Amedeus, two leading online holiday companies,

rule themselves out of the bidding for EBOOKERS - Sunday Times

* Leading games publisher Activision has no interest in acquiring Lara

Croft creator EIDOS - Sunday Express

* AMVESCAP will slash its interim dividend on Wednesday to help pay for

its 250 mln stg fine imposed by America's Securities and Exchange

Commission - Sunday Times

* Lehman Brothers, the US investment bank handling the auction of

MINERVA, the quoted property group, to offer all bidders a 1 bln stg

'stapled financing' package to held fund the takeover - Sunday Times

* John Hancock, chief executive of MFI, fighting to save his job after

coming under pressure from shareholders angered by the company's profits

warning last week - Sunday Telegraph

* Handset shortage could delay VODAFONE launch of its 'third

generation' service this autumn - Sunday Times

* Electronic Data Systems, the world's largest computer services

company, planning to cut 20,000 jobs - 15 pct of its workforce - bacause

of the growing crisis in the IT consultancy industry - The Business

* Restrictions on food marketing planned by the UK government could

lose the advertising industry up to three-quarters of the 500 mln

stg-plus revenue it receives from the sector, according to figures from

the Advertising Association and Industry regulator Ofcom - The Business

* Tens of thousands of taxpayers with shareholdings in European Union

companies based outside their own country could receive a large tax

windfall following a ruling by the European Court of Justice in

Luxembourg - Saturday FT

* The number of households owning second homes jumped by about 15 pct

in the past year as people deployed their growing wealth for investment

returns and for leisure - Saturday FT

* Office of Fair Trading launches a formal competition investigation

into HSBC's 763 mln stg takeover of MARKS & SPENCER's store-card

business - Independent on Sunday

* MARKS & SPENCER in talks to contract out its online operation to

internet giant Amazon as part of Stuart Rose's attempt to streamline the

retailer's operations - Saturday FT

* PUNCH TAVERNS buys InnSpired, a leased and tenanted pub chain, for

335 mln stg from Alchemy Partners

* REGENT INNS, the owner of the Walkabout pub and Jongleurs comedy club

chains, abruptly parts ways with its senior management team; company

issues a terse statement declaring that Stephen Haupt, chief executive,

and Simon Rowe, finance director, have stepped down from the board

* Cheap and cheerful pub chain JD WETHERSPOON to lobby Office of Fair

Trading over concerns that rival operators are trying to introduce

pricing cartels - Independent on Sunday

* Doorstep lenders face a full competition inquiry after reports that

many companies charge annual interest of more than 200 pct

* A US Food and Drug Administration advisory committee rules against

approval for ASTRAZENECA's blood-thinning drug, Exanta

* MEDIA SQUARE bids 22 mln stg for COUTTS, a retail communications

specialist

* FOREIGN & COLONIAL bosses set for a 70 mln stg windfall from the fund

manager's merger with rival ISIS; chief executive Robert Jenkins could

pick up 12.9 mln stg - Saturday Mail



SATURDAY PRESS COMMENT

FT

THE LEX COLUMN comments on currencies (if the eurozone economy does not

pick up, expectations for a narrowing of the interest rate gap with the

UK could be undermined - along with a good part of the bearish case for

sterling), PUNCH TAVERNS (trading at 9.5 times next year's earnings,

which looks rather inspiring), Oracle/PeopleSoft, Budget deficits -

JOHNSON SERVICE (a successful integration of Sketchley and evidence that

Johnson has traditional workwear under control are needed for the

discount to the support services sector to narrow) - CHARTER (some

upside could be provided by further restructuring and margin

improvement) - LUMINAR (do not look expensive) - AGA FOODSERVICE (on an

earnings multiple of 10 times, which looks stingy given that 13 is a

commoner level in the sector) - Weekend share watch: CABLE & WIRELESS

(with continued uncertainty in both the UK and the Caribbean, it is hard

to see much upside from its current share price of 113-1/2 pence),

BRIXTON (waiting buoyantly for the rising tide), XAAR (premium to DOMINO

PRINTING and LINX PRINTING looks fair given Xaar's exposure to the

growing digital market)



Independent

Private Investor: Sally White says the host of little brewers is

probably better picked up via Billy Whitbread's fund, TAVERNER'S TRUST;

he covers most of them, and his rising share price shows the market is

catching up with the value on offer; from him, White hears of a nice

little one she might pick up herself; PUBS 'N' BARS is mainly south

London, but spreads up from the West Country - No Pain, No Gain: Derek

Pain is happy to stick with RENTOKIL INITIAL; he still believes SCOTTISH

& NEWCASTLE offers considerable potential, but his patience is not

inexhaustible; he is also frustrated with MACLELLAN; its shares have

failed to respond to its fine profit record and Pain is beginning to

wonder if they ever will - AMEC (talk it has received and turned down a

380 pence-a-share offer) - CELTIC RESOURCES (rumours that a bullish

statement is just around the corner) - PREMIER DIRECT (talk of strong

trading)



Times

TOPPS TILES (co-chairman offloads 6.5 mln shares) - SHARE OF THE MONTH:

Stella Shamoon says buy ALLIED DOMECQ



Express

BIG FOOD GROUP (concerns that poor July and August weather had dented

sales) - ASTON VILLA (renewed takeover speculation) - TEN ALPS (rumours

trading is up on last year) - AIR MUSIC & MEDIA (dealers expect a

confident return to trading on Monday) - WHO'S DEALING: OYSTERTEC

(finance director buys 30,000 shares at 24.9 pence) - SHARE WHISPER:

EYECONOMY (look undervalued - dealers) - BROKER'S VIEW: OAKDENE HOMES

(Seymour Pierce remains positive)



Telegraph

AMEC (Fluor Corporation cited as possible predator) - ABBOT GROUP

(chief executive sells 11.3 mln shares at 185 pence) - QUESTOR COLUMN:

RMC GROUP (buy for the recovery and enjoy the healthy income), JOHN WOOD

GROUP (worth a long-term look), INTERTEK (no longer inexpensive; but if

you own the stock, it's worth holding)



Guardian

IDEAL SHOPPING DIRECT (chaiman almost doubles his holding, buying

50,000 shares at 94 pence)



Mail

AMEC (Amec flowers on hopes that Fluor will come callling) - SAB MILLER

(rumours of a sizeable placing on Monday to help fund an acquisition) -

AUGEAN (interesting) - EYECONOMY (worth keeping an eye on) - INVESTMENT

EXTRA: UK COAL (turns into a real hot property), Company bonds (bonds

have enjoyed a terrific run for three years amid falling interest rates

and rising disillusion with shares; but the party may be over),

THORNTONS (one for the patient)



SUNDAY PRESS COMMENT

The Business

BENCHMARK: Grant Clelland comments on Europe (Europe must not fail the

corporate reform test), Tui (worth more intact than broken up, making it

unattractive for most corporate raiders) French supermarkets



Financial Mail on Sunday

TAKING STOCK: Andrew Leach comments on SAINSBURY (possible interest

from GUS), MFI (GUS mentioned as a possible partner), BIG FOOD GROUP

(some analysts predicting that a profits warning is now inevitable - the

company is due to give an update in mid-October; that could be the time

for a predator to pounce), HOUSE OF FRASER (talk it is close to reaching

a new agreement with its store card administrator, General Electric

Capital Corp, which currently gives House of Fraser no profits from the

card) - COMPANIES AND MARKETS: Kirkham wins City lifeline to buy back

DFS, BRITISH ENERGY (row breaks out between British Energy and one of

its major shareholders, Polygon, over whether the nuclear power giant

was insolvent during a controversial restructuring; Polygon argues that

as it was not insolvent, the board had no right to act without

approval), SOUTH STAFFORDSHIRE (mineral water subsidiary Aqua Direct

wins big contract to supply supermarket chain Aldi) - SECRET DEALINGS:

NHP (Lansdowne Partners has built up its stake to 6.08 pct; AAA-rated

fund manager Ashton Bradbury was buying for his Old Mutual UK Select

Opportunities at the end of last month; as a result, he controls 0.76

pct; Chris Turner was buying shares for TR Property Investment Trust,

which now owns 2.25 mln shares) - MIDAS: UNITED DRUG (buy); MIDAS

UPDATE: TAYLOR NELSON SOFRES (hold on), VICTORIA (hold)



Sunday Times

JUDGMENT DAY: SHOULD YOU BUY SHARES IN BIG FOOD GROUP? Andy Brough,

fund manager at Schroders, says hold, while Tim Steer, fund manager at

New Star, says avoid - INSIDE THE CITY: Dominic O'Connell comments on

INVENSYS (shareholders probably won't be called on again (for cash), at

least in the near future), EMBLAZE SYSTEMS (could be substantial upside

if it can continue to deliver on its promise); MARKET MOLE: MEGGITT

(Ashton Bradbury bought 920,000 shares for his Old Mutual Select Mid Cap

fund, Nigel Thomas bought 1.1 mln for the Framlington UK Select

Opportunities fund, and Carl Stick added 920,000 to the Rathbone Income

fund's stake) - DIRECTORS' DEALS: COMPASS (chief executive buys 100,000

shares at 248 pence, and chairman buys just over 41,000 at 242 pence;

Alain Dupuis, head of the global business division, also bought 100,000

shares)



Observer

THROG STREET: AMVESCAP (predators soon circle when fund management

groups run into trouble; at this stage, a mercy killing is the best that

Amvescap's shareholders can hope for), CORUS (looking pricey in relation

to rivals such as Arcelor, and the discrepancy has persuaded some

brokers to take the company off their buy lists; perhaps they have

forgotton that the Russian tycoon Alisher Usmanov is still sitting on a

13 pct stake and Brandes speaks for 15 pct; what do they know that we

don't?), NEXT (now would be the wrong time to grow complacent)



Financial Sunday Express

CADBURY SCHWEPPES (most vulnerable to obesity risk among the European

food companies - p.5)



Sunday Telegraph

One is not enough for Chadlington; as plain Peter Gummer, the Tory peer

built a PR empire with Shandwick, and now he's doing it again with

HUNTSWORTH; but this time, he says, he'll get it right (BUSINESS p.5) -

BLUE CHIP VALUES: SIGNET (buy), MEGGITT (a long-term buy) - SMALL CAP

COMMENT: MFI (keep selling), BENFIELD (remains a solid business and

investors should hold on for the longer term), WHATMAN (keep buying),

FINANCIAL OBJECTS (worth a punt for brave investors); Look who's

trading: HAMMERSON (two directors sell stock; nevertheless, the shares

are on an untesting rating of 26 times earnings and are still worth

tucking away) - TAKING STOCK: Edmond Jackson asks: Who will win the

BRITISH ENERGY power struggle?

Greystone - 12 Sep 2004 21:31 - 8 of 11

Thanks for the help Digger. Much appreicated. G.

goldfinger - 12 Sep 2004 23:54 - 9 of 11

Greystone, you missed Bischi Mining BISI results on monday one of the biggest followed stocks on this board.

Never mind your new, we will let you off as long as you remember to give them a write up in Shares Mag this coming thursday LOL.

Cheers and good luck in the new job.

regards GF.

daves dazzlers - 13 Sep 2004 07:44 - 10 of 11

morning all.

Druid2 - 13 Sep 2004 07:51 - 11 of 11

Morning all.
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