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Traders Thread - Friday 26th November (TRAD)     

Greystone - 26 Nov 2004 06:09

Digger - 26 Nov 2004 07:19 - 6 of 15

MARKETS
FTSE 100 4,753.4, up 34.0
FTSE 250 6,596.4, up 13.4
DJIA closed
Nasdaq Coq closed
S&P 50 closed
Tokyo: Nikkei closed at 10,833.75, down 66.59
Hang Seng midday 13,966.70, up 40.09
Gold 451.50 usd (448.32 usd)
Oil - Brent Jan 44.66 usd (44.82 usd)

BREAKING NEWS
* Robert Tchenguiz, the millionaire property tycoon, formulating a possible bid for REGENT INNS after his Rotch Property Group is named preferred bidder for the Laurel Pub Company in a 151 mln stg deal - Times
* Film-makers face taxman's ire; Revenue warns British producers to stop 'exploiting' tax relief schemes;' financiers say clampdown on 'double-dipping' will drive productions overseas - FT
* Ukrainian court puts election outcome on hold - FT
* Danon departure fuels talk of boardroom rift at BT; head of consumer division to move to Capgemini - FT

PRESS COMMENT
FT
THE LEX COLUMN comments on TESCO (looks pricey), Market risk, BARCLAYS (its 10 pct premium to the likes of ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND may prove difficult to maintain), Japanese steelmakers - INVESTEC (still value to be found) - SMALL TALK: David Blackwell says institutions bring respectability to cash shells (AUGEAN, CLERKENWELL VENTURES)
Mail
LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE (revived gossip of an imminent 1.14 bln stg, or 450 pence per share, cash offer from Deutsche Borse) - SR PHARMA (rumours of an imminent reverse takeover which will be earnings enhancing from day one)
Express
WHO'S DEALING: MAYBORN GROUP (managing director sells 200,000 shares at 270 pence) - SHARE WHISPER: CYBIT (contract talk) - BROKER'S VIEW: AVESCO (Evolution buy)
Independent
THE INVESTMENT COLUMN: LONMIN (worth holding for likely takeover), INVESTEC (buy), ACCIDENT EXCHANGE (worth a punt) - MYTRAVEL (hedge funds target MyTravel for bear squeeze)
Telegraph
INVESTEC (very good argument for taking some profits at the moment but long-term investors ought to be rewarded for holding on), CAPITAL RADIO ((be prepared to tune into Capital), BABCOCK (time to get on board)
Guardian
COZART (Blunkett's decision to get more criminal drug takers into rehab a boost for Cozart) - CIRCLE OIL (talk of a big announcement in the pipeline)
Times
RUMOUR OF THE DAY: HOMESTYLE GROUP (Bensons beds division elicits bids from the private equity community) - DIRECTORS' DEALINGS: INTECHNOLOGY (two directors sell stock for 2.8 mln stg) - NOVAR (rumours of rival bid) - TErUS: JOHNSON MATTHEY (buy), UNITED UTILITIES (buy), LONDON MERCHANT SECURITIES (buy)
Investors Chronicle
10 AIM super stocks: CONNAUGHT, HARDMAN RESOURCES, INTER-LINK FOODS, LAWRENCE, MAJESTIC WINE, MEARS, NWF, PIPEX, SPICE, SYNERGY HEALTHCARE - TIPS (LARGE COrANIES): XSTRATA (sell), PREMIER FOODS (buy), BIOQUELL (sell); TIPS (SMALLER COrANIES): SPORTINGBET (buy), DOBBIES GARDEN CENTRES (buy), ELEKTRON (buy); TIPS UPDATE: CARDPOINT (buy), SCI ENTERTAINMENT (sell), STANDARD CHARTERED (still good value), BEMA GOLD (buy)

little woman - 26 Nov 2004 08:43 - 7 of 15

A very good morning to all.

With only 3 trading days to go, I wonder if the FTSE will break 4800 or drop
back to 4700 by the end of the month?

Digger - 26 Nov 2004 10:02 - 8 of 15

Aquarius Platinum chairman buys 10,000 shares in co, CEO buys 7,000 shares

LONDON (AFX) - Aquarius Platinum Ltd said chairman Nicholas Sibley bought 10,000 shares in the company for 2.38 stg each on Nov 19, taking his holding to 741,459 shares or 0.9 pct.
Chief executive Stuart Murray yesterday bought 7,000 shares in the company for 2.35 stg each, raising his holding to 15,000 shares or 0.02 pct.

Golddog - 26 Nov 2004 12:55 - 9 of 15

I seem to remember trading this one, whatever happened to it? It was meant to be a stock of the future?

LONDON (AFX) - Baltimore Technologies PLC said it has approved a plan to clear its share register of small shareholders and de-list its shares.

The former internet security company said that 24,000 of its shareholders -- representing 59 pct of all individual shareholders, but less than 2.5 pct of its total equity -- have registered holdings of less than 125 shares. At current prices, a holding of that size is worth only 22 stg.

The company said it can cut administration costs if it clears its registers of these small shareholders, so it will consolidate its shares, offering one new share for every 125 existing shares. Shareholders with less than 125 shares will be compensated for their fractional holdings, down to a minimum of 3 stg. Baltimore's ADS issues will be similarly consolidated.

The group said it will then de-list its shares and ADSs, probably in February, as a listing is no longer appropriate for the company, which is now nothing more than a cash shell.

little woman - 26 Nov 2004 13:15 - 10 of 15

Baltimore Technologies - I don't hold shares, but 59% of its shareholders are to be "got rid of".....................

Golddog - 26 Nov 2004 13:46 - 11 of 15

Yes because their stake in it is now worthless. I seem to remember punters buying in at 14. Not the best long term investment was it.

Mega Bucks - 26 Nov 2004 15:02 - 12 of 15

long ARM 103 s/l on

long BLND 804.75 s/l on

long MNKS 185.25 s/l on

Digger - 26 Nov 2004 19:03 - 13 of 15

OUTLOOK - UK data in coming week to show more evidence of slowdown in activity

LONDON (AFX) - In a week set to be dominated by the government's pre-budget report, UK data will likely fade into the background although ample evidence of a continued slowdown in activity is expected.
The week starts off with data for October consumer credit and mortgage lending. Both are predicted to show further drops in pace as record levels of debt and the interest rate hikes take their toll.
John Butler at HSBC expects the number of mortgage approvals to slump to lows not seen since 1998.
"That is arguably a return to more 'normal' levels rather than a collapse," he said.
Analysts cited data from the likes of the British Bankers Association, Building Societies Association and Council of Mortgage Lenders for their assessment.
"Indeed, the downward momentum could gather pace now that house prices have fallen and even the Bank of England has forecast further modest falls," analysts at Capital Economics.
At the same time, consumer credit is expected to drop to 1.5 bln stg in October from 1.6 bln the previous month -- largely due to the rise in borrowing costs.
The purchasing managers indices measuring activity in the manufacturing and service sectors are also due out during the week and are forecast to show falls.
The first of the two, the manufacturing sector index, scheduled for Wednesday, is seen slipping to 52.5 from 53.0 in September. The index had improved in October, but few expect a repeat.
"The risk is that October's rise was merely a consolidation after the previous sharper-than-expected drops," analysts at CALYON noted.
Yet others, however believe a modest rise is on the cards, boosted by the US economy's emergence from its 'soft patch'.
The week concludes with the service sector PMI on Friday where the median forecast of analysts polled by AFX News points to a drop to 55.6 from 56.3 in September.
The service sector has been one of the main engines for overall UK economic growth and any drop will be unwelcome.
"On balance we think that weakness in housing, retail activity and recorded softness in manufacturing could well see some softening in services and we are pencilling in a modest dip back below 56," said David Page, economist at Investec.
Also during the week some key survey data are due. The GfK's consumer confidence poll on Tuesday is expected to remain static.
Meanwhile, while the Confederation of British Industry's distributive survey for November is predicted to retreat from the recovery it showed the previous month.
But as CALYON analysts noted, the data "has lost some of its appeal given the misleading signals it sent relative to the hard data on retail sales".

Digger - 26 Nov 2004 19:05 - 14 of 15

London shares - closing features

FTSE 100 risers
Xstrata 938 up 14
WMC bid situation
Enterprise Inns 659 up 6-1/2
Results due Tuesday' smoking ban fears overdone
Corus Group 55-1/4 up 1/2
Nissan highlights steel shortages in Japan
Smith & Nephew 539 up 4-1/2
Lehman reiterates 'overweight' & ups target to 620 pence from 580
United Utilities 562 up 3
Recent interims
Rexam 461-1/4 up 4-1/2
Contract win

FTSE 100 fallers
William Hill 513 down 14-1/2
Cazenove reiterates 'underperform'
AMVESCAP 324-3/4 down 2-1/4
Weaker market trend
Dixons 149-1/4 down 3/4
Tesco competition worries
Johnson Matthey 1,024 down 8-1/2
'Hold' from 'buy' - Citigroup; 'neutral' from 'overweight' - JP Morgan
Anglo American 1,273 down 5
'Underweight' from 'neutral' - JP Morgan
Barclays 543 down 2
Soc Gen 'sell'; Morgan Stanley 'underweight' with 520p target; press comment
Shell 447-1/4 down 1
New reserves fears
Tesco 305-1/2 down 3-1/4
Finance director exercises options & sells; 'looks pricey' - Financial Times

FTSE 250 risers
Stagecoach 95-1/4 up 1-1/4
Interims due Dec 8
TR Property Investment Trust 126 up 1/2
Interims
Brambles Industries 2710 up 3/4
Merrill Lynch 'buy'
SSL International 297-1/2 up 16
Smith & Nephew bid speculation
AWG 752-1/2 up 17-1/2
Morgan Stanley upgrades to 'overweight'
Viridian Group 700-1/2 up 11
Goldman Sachs ups ests yesterday
London Stock Exchange 413-1/2 up 8-1/2
Deutsche Borse merger speculation
Halfords 299 up 1-3/4
Citigroup 'buy' with 325 pence target
Investec 1,467 up 53
Bridgewell Securities reiterates 'overweight'

FTSE 250 fallers
Jardine Lloyd 366 down 94
FY profits warning
Benfield 264-1/2 down 3-3/4
With Jardine
Wellington Underwriting 80 down 1/2
With Jardine
Evolution Group 140 down 3-3/4
Recent client profit warnings
Lonmin 937 down 35
Dresdner Kleinwort, Williams de Broe & Numis turn negative
Lastminute 101 down 3-1/4
Q4 forecasts missed yesterday
Big Food Group 87-1/2 down 1/2
Baugur bid doubts
Topps Tiles 207-1/4 down 3/4
FY results due Monday
WH Smith 296-1/4 down 14-3/4
Numis 'sell'
Westbury 376-3/4 down12-1/2
'Underperform' - Seymour Pierce
Pennon 890 down 2
Morgan Stanley downgrades to 'underweight'

Other risers
QXL Ricardo 671 up 193-1/2
Tiger Acquisition makes agreed 700 pence a share cash offer
Arlington Group 43-1/2 up 5
Buqer interims; upbeat statement
Malcolm Group 96 up 11
Possible management offer
Stanelco 6.25 up 0.25
New product
Homestyle Group 127-1/2 up 6
Reportedly attracting private-equity interest
Asia Energy 515 up 42-1/2
Drilling update
Cardiff Property 785 up 22-1/2
Year-end NAV up 15 pct; results
Connaught 477-1/2 up 4
Investors Chronicle 'buy'
Ten Alps Communications 47-1/2 up 1-1/2
Solid interims; upbeat statement

Other fallers
Courts 14-3/4 down 13-3/4
Debt worries
Baltimore 11-3/4 down 3-3/4
To quit London stock market
Yoomedia 19-1/2 down 3-1/2
Plans placing to fund acquisitions
Gaskell 9-1/2 down 2
Warns on second half
Vianet Group 5.62 down 0.63
Sales warning
Fuller Smith Turner 'A' 717-1/2 down 18-1/2
Profit-taking after interims; Arbuthnot, Panmure downgrade
Oakdene Homes 81-1/2 down 6
Bid for Honeygrove yesterday

Big Al - 26 Nov 2004 22:13 - 15 of 15

The BLM story this week should be a salutory lesson to all..............there's a time to sell!

;-)
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