MARKETS
FTSE 100 4,688.4 down 15.5
FTSE 250 6,641.1 down 16.5
DJIA 10,552.82 up 58.59
Nasdaq Comp 2,129.01 up 2.9
S&P 500 1,189.24 up 6.43
Tokyo: Nikkei 10,756.80 down 19.83
Hang Seng midday 13,914.19 down 94.63
Gold 435.02 usd (435.82 usd)
Oil - Brent Jan 39.67 usd 938.69 usd)

BREAKING NEWS
* Employers 'ducking' pension role; task force recommends businesses be
forced to set aside money for workers' retirement; survey shows
two-thirds of engineering companies support compulsion - FT
* Concern over Iran's nuclear technology; IAEA head warns on use of
expertise as a deterrent - FT
* Sprint and Nextel, two of the top five US mobile phone carriers, eye
70 bln usd merger - FT
* Entrepreneur Hugh Osmond seals the UK's largest closed life assurance
deal with the 1 bln stg purchase of four British brands, including Pear
Assurance - FT
* BT GROUP acted unlawfully trying to persuade customers to stay once
they had agreed to move to a rival supplier, the Competition Appeal
Tribunal rule
* Government offers more time for consultation over changes to the way
life assurers' with-profits funds are taxed, after anger from the
industry - FT
* JARVIS to sell four of the 14 private finance initiative construction
projects it runs - FT
* GEEST confirms it has received a bid approach from Bakkavor
* PREMIER FOODS pays 70 mln stg for Bird's Custard
* CIP sells its 10 pct stake in TATE & LYLE
* Ministers face a wave of litigation against their White Paper on
aviation which may mean that plans for airport expansion costing
billions of pounds will have to be scrapped - Independent
* ARMOURGROUP, the private security services company chaired by Sir
Malcolm Rifkind, the former foreign secretary, has raised 31 mln stg
from institutional investors on the eve of its flotation - Independent
* ITV sells special effects unit for 52.7 mln stg
* J SAINSBURY suffers a fresh blow as its senior debt is downgraded to
within one notch of "junk" by Moody's - Times
* House prices set to rise by 4 pct next year, Britain's mortgage
lenders predict - Times
* XSTRATA will press on with WMC bid despite the Australian copper and
nickel producer's attempts to breach some of the takeover offer's
conditions - Times
* Venture capitalists Kenn Robson and Andrin Bachmann evaluating the
possibility of a counter bid for QXL RICARDO

PRESS COMMENT
FT
THE LEX COLUMN comments on next year's European accounting reforms,
Hewlett-Packard's decision to quit the personal computer business, Air
France-KLM, Remy Cointreau (fact that cognac sales are sensitive to
macro-economic trends could cause trouble, rather than cheers, in 2005;
with the shares trading at 16.5 times earnings - a small premium to the
sector - the world's fifth largest spirits group may struggle to
intoxicate investors) - PENNON (further big gains seem unlikely) - Hopes
filter through protection system; Chris Tighe finds optimism at DOMNICK
HUNTER, whose 3.5 mln stg order could lead to more interest from
international markets (p.26)

Independent
THE INVESTMENT COLUMN: TRINITY MIRROR (avoid for the time being), DYSON
GROUP (hold)

Times
DIRECTORS' DEALINGS: WORKSPACE GROUP (finance director sells half his
holding for 438,900 stg) - TEMPUS: GREENE KING (buy on the dips),
BERKELEY GROUP (avoid for now), THEO FENNELL (for the risk-hungry stock
picker, it could be an interesting stocking filler)

Guardian
EXEL (comments on the outlook for 2005 set alarm bells ringing) - SCI
ENTERTAINMENT (talk that entrepreneur Robert Bonnier has built a 3 pct
stake via a contracts for difference with Cantor) - SCREEN (talk that
Collins Stewart is putting the finishing touches to a 5 mln stg
fundraising at 1 pence)

Telegraph
QUESTOR: PENNON (safe, long-term investment, but there are better water
company picks for the income investor), PREMIER FARNELL (worth further
investigation), ARMOURGROUP (keep an eye on it over the next few months
- it may prove itself an excellent target)

Express
LEPTIS MAGNA (market debut today) - WHO'S DEALING: ATHENLEY TRUST
(director increase stake) - SHARE WHISPER: MILLFIELD (vague talk it is
mulling another acquisition) - BROKER'S VIEW: NOVAR (Dresdner Kleinwort
tells holders to await a higher offer from predator MELROSE)

Mail
ARTISAN (UK) word is that today's interims results will mkae pleasant
reading

Investors Chronicle
Large company tips: TESCO (buy), ACAMBIS (sell), GAME GROUP (sell);
smaller company tips:URBIUM (buy), ALBIDON MINING (buy), IST DENTAL
(buy); tips update: HILTON (buy), BRITISH AIRWAYS (buy), BROKER NETWORK
(fairly priced), OXUS GOLD (buy)

Morning punters!

Gonna be a quiet day with all the p***heads taking the day off. ;-)

BAA - traffic figures
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/20041210070000P18ED.html

BET - terms of announced placing
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/20041210070000PB05B.html

CNA - trading update, buyback program
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/20041210070000Z7726.html

MSR - recently listed software minnow. Much reduced losses
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412100700042462G.html

LTHM/CYD - property disposal, special divi
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412100700042464G.html

ART - these are in my dog drawer worth 1/7th of what I paid!! ;-) Seem to be getting there
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412100700062488G.html

ARX - EGM not much more enlightening
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412100700082510G.html

SFX - deal in Edinburgh. Wouldn't call it our premier shopping centre, though! ;-)
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412100700112518G.html

CGL - estimates from hurricanes up 50% Hmm.
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412100700132528G.html

TRB - contract wins. Chart says they're in dire need of something. ;-)
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412100700132527G.html

BVIT - acquisition/trading update. Could be better - raw materials hurting more than expected
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412100700142530G.html

HHG - sale and return of cash for share cancellation
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412100700152536G.html

FIO - contract in Sweden
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412100700062497G.html

That seems to be it - very quiet. Must be getting to the festive season and all that.

Have a good day.

long TSCO 310.50 s/l on

Long TBK - pullback over?

Closed MPH +2.75

reduce holding WTB evens

Longed TFC 67. Dangerous!

long CNA 233.5 s/l on

long TATE 460 s/l on

FTSE 100 risers
Cairn Energy 1,420 up 20
Oil shares rally ahead of OPEC meeting in Cairo
Royal Bank of Scotland 1,670 up 27
Positive trading update yesterday; Lehman 'overweight' 1,800 target
Imperial Tobacco 1,371 up 16
Goldman Sachs ups to 'in-line' from 'underperform'
Kingfisher 300-1/2 up 1-1/2
JP Morgan 'overweight' ahead of next week's figures
Prudential 441 up 5-1/4
Positive market momentum
Xstrata 890 up 6-1/2
Shrugs off WMC defence moves
BAA 587 up 1/2
Traffic stats


FTSE 100 fallers
Vodafone 141-1/4 down 3-1/2
Concerns over Japanese subscriber figures
HSBC 872-1/2 down 1/2
Uninspiring trading update
Centrica 249 down 3
Disappointing trading update, Cazenove cuts ests

FTSE 250 risers
HHG 54 up 4-3/4
Sells its life services business to private equity firms
Computacenter 258-3/4 up 4-1/2
'Outperform' Cazenove
Bovis Homes 539-1/2 up 21-1/2
Solid Berkeley numbers yesterday
Wilson Bowden 1,045 up 32
BoE kept rates on hold yesterday
Bellway 760 up 23-1/2
Sector consolidation hopes
Kelda 581 up 11-1/2
Recent numbers
Pilkington 106-3/4 up 1-1/4
UBS ups target to 111 from 95, 'neutral'

FTSE 250 fallers
Catlin 350 down 20
Revises up hurricane impact by 25 mln usd to 75 mln
Premier Farnell 159-3/4 down 2-1/4
Downgraded to 'neutral' from 'buy' at Merrill Lynch
British Vita 262 down 4-1/2
Sees FY headline pretax ex-associates below 50.7 mln stg
P&O 303-1/2 down 1/4
Downgraded to 'hold' from 'buy' by Panmure Gordon - dealers
AB Ports 473-3/4 down 2-1/4
Downgraded to 'hold' from 'buy' by Panmure Gordon
Forth Ports 1,324 down 12
Downgraded to 'hold' from 'buy' by Panmure Gordon
Serco 231-1/4 down 1-3/4
No specific nos on IFRS impact pending further clarification; Panmure 'hold'


Other risers
AeroBox 16 up 1-1/4
Positive outlook comments at EGM
James Latham 592-1/2 up 27-1/2
Special 30p div; Clapton site disposal
Tribal 154-1/2 up 2
NHS deal; Bridgewell 'overweight'
Albidon 23 up 1-1/2
Investors Chronicle 'buy' at 22p
AEC Education 45
First day of trading on AIM

Other fallers
Maisha 1.62 down 0.13
FY pretax loss 253,000 stg; legal battle over Pearl Micro Solutions
CES Software 15 down 10
Change of adviser
Prestbury Holdings 30.00 down 1.50
Still looking for buyer

Me to MB,

CNA at a bit over 235p.

Afternoon all - took me a while to find the thread. It needs more posting!

covered TATE +2.25 could well go back in again

Hey you guys and gals
Virtual lunch in the tea-rooms this afternoon:
roast dinner and puds and trifle available all afternoon
so if you get a minute between trades, come and grab a bite
and a beer.....and Be Lucky Today!!
:>)

SEG dropped again so In at 247p.

MARKETS
FTSE 100 4,694.0 up 5.6
FTSE 250 6,675.0 up 33.9
DJIA 10,543.22 down 9.6
Nasdaq Comp 2,128.07 down 0.94
S&P 500 1,188.00 down 1.24
Gold 435.00 usd (435.02 usd)
Oil - Brent Jan 37.38 usd (39.67 usd)

BREAKING NEWS - WEEKEND
* CVC Capital lays groundwork for 2 bln stg bid for TRINITY MIRROR -
Sunday Telegraph
* Ofcom launches new round of 3G licences; new bidders, expected to
include BT and Virgin, will pick up their licences at a price far below
the original buyers - The Business
* Britain's biggest supermarkets being investigated over allegations
that online shoppers are being overcharged; OFT confirms it has launched
an inquiry into the online services of TESCO and J SAINSBURY - Sunday
Times
* Controversial fixed-odds betting machines, which have boosted the
profits of high-street bookmakers in recent years, will get the backing
of government in a new report to be released this week - Sunday Times
* LONMIN urged to stick to its platinum roots, chief executive of the
London-listed platinum miner, facing pressure from investors to abandon
his plan to diversify - Sunday Times
* Howard Cohen, a former director of COURTS, transferred 3.9 mln stg
out of the company's pension fund and into a personal scheme just eight
months before the furniture retailer collapsed into administration -
Sunday Times
* Collapsed furniture retailer COURTS expected to be sold off piecemeal
early this week - The Business
* One of BRITISH AIRWAYS' longest-serving executives, Mervyn Walker,
leaves the airline after the summer staffing crisis that humiliated BA
and resulted in the cancellation of almost 1,000 flights - Sunday Times
* American pharmaceuticals group Bristol-Myers Squibb understood to be
preparing to sell its consumer-medicines business, and GLAXOSMITHKLINE
is expected to line up among the potential buyers - Sunday Times
* VODAFONE faces US lockout if Sprint merges with Nextel - Saturday
Times
* US cable firms, including Time Warner Cable and Comcast, poised to
intervene in the proposed 16 bln stg merger between Sprint and Nextel -
The Business
* Banks: JARVIS must survive; bankers to Jarvis may have to pay out
tens of millions of pounds on claims from clients and sub-contractors if
the cash-strapped infrastructure services group goes bust - Observer
* JARVIS chief seeks investor to save group; Alan Lovell devises a
two-week rescue plan intended to save the company from financial
collapse - Sunday Times
* Western banks facing giant lawsuits over carve-up of Yukos -
Independent on Sunday
* BAE SYSTEMS will this week give the City a much-needed fillip by
announcing a multi-billion-pound order for the Eurofighter-Typhoon
combat jet - Independent on Sunday
* MoD this week to announce 9 bln stg aircraft order - Sunday Express
* Brown 'bullied' MOD over 4 bln stg carrier deal; Chancellor 'put
constituency jobs before UK' - Sunday Express
* Royal Mail chairman Allan Leighton wins a private pledge from the
government that he can partially privatise the company - Mail on Sunday
* LA FITNESS, the last stock market-listed chain of health and fitness
clubs, quietly sounding out buyers and could fetch up to 160 mln stg -
Mail on Sunday
* Mobile giants put a squeeze on middlemen; lucrative deals are on the
way out for high street phone shops; chains such as The Link, Phones4U
and CARPHONE WAREHOUSE have been receiving big commissions on each phone
sold, and in some cases a share of airtime revenue; but with market
growth slowing, operators are determined to end these deals - Mail on
Sunday
* T-Mobile and BAA will tomorrow unveil a deal to provide WiFi
(wireless internet) in all BAA airports - Sunday Express
* BSKYB set to beat analysts' expectations by adding more than 150,000
subscribers in the final quarter of this year - Sunday Telegraph
* FSA set to settle splits dispute for less than 200 mln stg; ABERDEEN
ASSET MANAGEMENT to contribute 75 mln, while HSBC, UBS and ABN Amro will
each pay an estimated 10 mln - Sunday Telegraph
* Thousands of savers, between them accounting for a third of the
losses suffered by split capital investment trusts, will be excluded
from compensation being negotiated with the Financial Services Authority
- Observer
* TV groups, including SKY, ITV and Channel 4, to set up marketing
joint venture - Sunday Telegraph
* MARKS & SPENCER denies it has any plans to sell large numbers of its
Simply Food convenience stores - Mail on Sunday
* MARKS & SPENCER and J SAINSBURY expected to be worst hit by the
changes to accounting rules for share options that come into force next
year - Observer
* Sir Richard Branson steps back from frontline to focus on charity -
Sunday Express
* EASYJET ending Paris-Marseilles flights next spring after French
state railway company, Societe Nationale des Chemin de Fer Francais,
launched a new high-speed train service priced aggressively against its
airline rival - The Business
* Chief executive Terry Green's attempts to wrest control of the UK's
struggling Allders department store run aground after a decision by
Barclays not to back his management buyout - The Business
* Retirememt age to stay at 65 for five years; victory for business
groups over age campaigners - Saturday FT
* Opec ministers agree to cut oil supply to world markets and defend
higher prices - in spite of concern about the impact of 40 usd-a-barrel
oil on economies, businesses and households
* CENTRICA, owner of British Gas, lost almost 1 mln customers this year
following price rises
* British Gas, which has lost almost 1 mln customers this year, set to
lose another 1 mln or more by the end of 2006, according to figures from
Datamonitor, the industry analyst - Sunday Times
* Expansion of casinos planned under the government's controversial
gambling bill set to be scaled back even further next week, dashing the
hopes of British casino operators - Saturday FT
* INVESTEC merging Carr, Sheppards Crosthwaite, its private client
stockbroking arm, with Rensburg, a rival stockbroker with a UK listing,
to create one of the UK's biggest private client investment management
groups - Saturday FT
* BT GROUP will this week face the first serious challenge to its
dominance of the wholesale broadband market when rival Easynet launches
a cheaper and faster service - Sunday Times
* BT GROUP's finance chief, Ian Livingston, hailed as heir apparent by
taking over at BT Retail - Saturday Telegraph
* Bankers say NOVAR is in advanced talks to be bought for more than
750 mln stg by one of four possible trade buyers; a deal would save it
from a hostile 745 mln stg takeover by MELROSE, the Aim-listed
investment vehicle - Sunday Telegraph
* NOVAR, the mini-conglomerate facing a hostile takeover, understood to
be considering the US flotation of its cheque-printing business if it is
unable to sell the whole group to a competitor or private equity buyer -
Saturday FT
* Supermarkets start petrol price war; falling cost of crude prompts
WILLIAM MORRISON to cut 3.5 pence off litre of unleaded - Saturday
Guardian
* ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT, one of the groups at the heart of the
split capital investment trust crisis, again postpones announcing its
results as the final agreement over a compensation settlement for
investors seems imminent - Saturday FT
* PERSONAL GROUP HOLDINGS makes 12.3 mln stg offer for BERKELEY MORGAN
GROUP
* Baugur lines up a deal to sell Woodwards, the food service retailer,
to rival 3663; it is dependent on Baugur succeeding with its bid to take
over BIG FOOD GROUP, Woodwards' owner - Sunday Telegraph

SATURDAY PRESS COMMENT
FT
THE LEX COLUMN comments on Opec's decision to cut oil supplies, Mergers
and acquisitions, CENTRICA (without progress on acquisitions, investors
will focus on near-term performance risks), HSBC (still too early to be
entirely complacent about Britain's ability to achieve a smooth exit
from its record mountain of consumer debt) - Weekend share watch: MM02
(has the potential to remain one of the sector's outperformers), SCI
ENTERTAINMENT (on a p/e of about 12, which could attract attention from
some European rivals looking to consolidate in the market), ARC
INTERNATIONAL (if more contracts begin rolling in, the stock - at just 1
times estimated sales for next year - could start to look good value) -
MY PORTFOLIO: Peter Temple says much of cash from his disposal of
PLANESTATION has gone into CANTERBURY FOODS

Guardian
NEXT (rumours of tough pre-Christmas trading) - LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE
(rumours Deutsche Bank has been given the green light to make an offer)
- STAGECOACH (finance director exercises options and sells them) -
SKYEPHARMA (rumours that the sale of licensing rights to its portfolio
of asthma-related products is close; also talk it is plotting a merger
deal) - FIRST CALGARY (talk it could soon receive a bid of more than 10
stg a share) - CADBURY SCHWEPPES (speculators bet Wednesday's end of
year trading update will trigger earnings downgrades)

Independent
Private Investor: Sean O'Grady will continue to hold on tight to
STAGECOACH, GO-AHEAD, Coca-Cola, McDonalds - Company spotlight: ILX
GROUP (look distinctly attractive) - HIGHBURY HOUSE COMMUNICATIONS
(investors fret about trading) - CARDIFF PROPERTY (talk it is close to a
10 mln stg disposal of a building in London)

Express
BOVIS HOMES (speculation of cash return to shareholders) - SPORTINGBET
(talk of contract wins) - ITE GROUP (dealers believe it could appear on
the radar screen of Dutch market research giant VNU) - THOMSON
INTERMEDIA (another possible target for VNU) - DINKIE HEEL (speculation
it will be looking to raise 3 mln stg to 5 mln from investors over the
next few weeks to fund next stage of its development from steel toecap
maker to investment company) - EMERGING UK INVESTMENTS (rumours it is
looking at A-Z Restaurants) - FALKLAND GOLD & MINERALS (rumours it is
about to be given the go-ahead for more extensive exploration)

Telegraph
QUESTOR COLUMN: MFI FURNITURE (steer clear), WHATMAN (worth holding,
and maybe even a long-term punt), PLANESTATION (for the brave only)

Times
ITNET (talk it is poised to announce that it has agreed terms on a deal
that could value the shares at about 300 pence) - TEMPUS: Sarah Butler
comments on the retail sector (retail sector is priced at a median 11
times prospective earnings, well below the market-weighted average; the
figures suggest you should hold on for a happier new year, and the brave
should look out for some pre-Christmas bargains) - SHARE OF THE MONTH:
CAPITAL & REGIONAL (Stella Shamoon is shopping for shares in C&R at 656
pence)

Mail
THUS (takeover gossip swells) - NEXT (gossip that pre-Christmas trading
is disappointing) - WESTBURY (chatter it could be on PERSIMMON's
shopping list) - HAMPSON INDUSTRIES (earnings upgrades are on the way in
the wake of its recent Texstars acquisition) - INVESTMENT EXTRA:
WICHFORD (long-term buy)

SUNDAY PRESS COMMENT
The Business
FUND OF THE MONTH: BAILLIE GIFFORD JAPAN TRUST (discount has widened
out to 9 pct, a level at which Hilary Cook, director of investment
strategy at Barclays Stockbrokers, is ahppy to recommend it) - SMALL-CAP
INVESTOR: GENERICS (buy) - AIM INVESTOR: GLISTEN (buy) - BENCHMARK:
Grant Clelland comments on General Motors (to fire on all cylinders if
Opel's cost-cutting plan fails), KarstadtQuelle, Hewlett-Packard

Mail on Sunday
MIDAS: SPEEDY HIRE (buy) - TAKING STOCK: JP Morgan suggests new
accounting rules might knock 4 pct off reported earnings of CARPHONE
WAREHOUSE and MARKS & SPENCER, while KINGFISHER, DIXONS and GUS could be
hit by between 1.5 pct and 2.5 pct; retailers least likely to suffer
under the new rules are, according to JP Morgan, NEXT, KESA and BOOTS -
COMPANIES AND MARKETS: NOVAR (plots spin-off to halt predator), KIDDE
(United Technologies' 165 pence-a-share offer could still collapse as
the negotiations enter their final stages this week), GW PHARMACEUTICALS
(Canadian health regulators expected to grant approval for its multiple
sclerosis drug), EASYJET (scraps flights between Paris and Marseilles,
blaming airport tax rises; but some analysts suggest it is being
squeezed by cheap fares on TGV trains); SECRET DEALINGS: QUINTAIN
ESTSTAES & DEVELOPMENTS (fund managers buy stock)

Sunday Telegraph
Equity View BLUE CHIP VALUES: COBHAM (buy), WH SMITH (keep selling);
Look who's trading: SCS UPHOLSTERY (despite chief executive's sale of
800,000 shares, we would keep buying); SMALL CAP COMMENT: KINGSPAN
(buy), PARAGON GROUP (should be further to go), ORCA INTERACTIVE (buy),
CENES (risky but worth a punt) - TAKING STOCK: Edmond Jackson comments
on SANDERSON (why couldn't Sanderson stay on the market and deliver for
its wider owners its shares are still worth following), 3DM WORLDWIDE
(he questioned chunky grants of share options to two directors), OXUS
GOLD (a few people may exact profits from the share price swings, but
medium-term investors should keep Oxus tucked away), SCI ENTERTAINMENT
(patience may be a virtue with this attractive growth share)

Observer
BUSINESS COMMENT: Richard Wachman comments on EMI (a deal (with Warner)
cannot be far away), China (Chinese companies are starting to buy US,
British and European firms), It's boom, not bust, for the investment
banks, Lazard IPO, Hugh Osmond's move into life insurance - THROG
STREET: Richard Wachman comments on water companies (my prediction for
2005 is that the dam erected to prevent water mergers will crack - and
not before time), BT/Ofcom spat, MM02 (a well-managed firm, but it
operates in a cut-throat industry - and investors ignore the risks at
their peril) - Money for less than nothing. CEO pay now ridiculously
outstrips profit increases, writes Simon Caulkin (p.10)

Sunday Express
EQUATOR EXPLORATION (looking at drilling opportunities in Equatorial
Guinea)

Sunday Times
REED ELSEVIER (aims to blind the sceptics with science; the publisher
of academic journals plans to return to double-digit growth next year
(BUSINESS p.8) - JUDGMENT DAY: SHOULD YOU HAVE FOLLOWED THE ADVICE OF
OUR JUDGES On average, if you had followed Brough's advice you would
have made 5.2 pct, beating the market by 4.9 pct; if you had followed
all of Steer's advice you would have made 9 pct, beating the market by
7.3 pct - CHIME COMMUNICATIONS (sources say Lord Bell is preparing to
take the company private) - INSIDE THE CITY: John Waples comments on
COBHAM (there is nothing structurally wrong at Cobham and the company is
eyeing two big deals that are each worth north of 100 mln stg), Closed
life funds; MARKET MOLE: BTG (Bob Brown, who has an AAA Citywire rating,
used a share-price fillip when the group announced interim results last
month to sell a 280,000-share stake held by his Matrix Quantock UK
Growth fund) - DIRECTORS' DEALS: NATIONAL EXPRESS (chairman buys 180,000
shares at 758 pence, taking his total stake to just over 600,000 shares)

US stocks seen treading water this week amid raft of economic data, Fed meet

NEW YORK (AFX) - US stocks are expected to tread water this week as investors wade through a raft of economic releases and wait out a Federal Reserve meeting, at which policymakers are widely expected to raise interest rates by another quarter point, analysts said.
Among the corporate highlights, Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers will unveil the first fiscal fourth-quarter earnings from big brokerages. Software giant Oracle Corp, which is still embroiled in a takeover battle with PeopleSoft, will report its fiscal second-quarter earnings.
But it is the FOMC meeting that will take center stage, and with a 25 basis point hike already "baked in the cake," investors will firmly focus on the wording of the Fed's accompanying statement for any hint at what its next move might be, said Joe Keating, chief investment officer at AmSouth Asset Management Group.
Data reported in the last week have done more to obscure than to clear the economic outlook, with disappointments like November's weaker-than-expected jobs report weighing against a surprisingly strong consumer sentiment reading for December.
Inflation has remained a fear, stoked by continued high crude prices -- although oil underwent a correction in the latest week-- and a weak dollar, which also clawed its way higher in the past week.
An unexpectedly high reading for November producer prices weighed on stocks Friday. The Labor Department reported that the producer price index rose by 0.5 pct, well ahead of the 0.1 pct rise forecast by economists surveyed by CBS MarketWatch.
Core producer prices, which exclude volatility food and energy prices, rose 0.2 pct, in line with economist expectations.
Investors will closely watch the release of consumer price data this Friday, to see whether higher prices at the wholesale level are beginning to translate into higher prices for consumers -- a scenario the Fed has pledged to act on.
"The key issue is whether or not the Fed will pause at some point," said Keating. "People are trying to work out whether the Fed might "overdo" their effort to raise short-term rates. There's a wide range of opinions on what exactly a 'neutral' fed funds rate is, so that it neither impeaches nor stimulates growth."
The major indexes closed a choppy week lower as investors ignored the retreat in oil prices and the dollar to lock in some of November's sharp gains.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended last week at 10,543, down 0.5 pct from a week ago.
The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.9 pct on the week to finish at 2,128, and the S&P 500 shed 0.3 pct for the week to close out at 1,188.
Strategists are divided on where the market is heading as the year end approaches.
Joe Battipaglia, chief investment officer at Ryan Beck, believes the "Santa rally" is already over, although he is bullish for stocks heading into 2005.
"Santa is coming earlier and earlier each year, and this year we got him in November after the election," he said. "At this point, we'll wait to see the new year, see what oil, the dollar, gold prices do; there's a lot of factors keeping stocks under wraps and a lack of real news drivers to push us one way or another," he said.
At Barrington Research, strategist Alexander Paris believes that while the market is showing signs of a shift in sentiment, the trend is still positive.
Paris argues that this week's correction, accompanied by a pullback in commodity prices, is a healthy trend, coming after a strong market advance from its mid-August lows.
"The stock market may be a little overbought in the short term but the upturn that began in mid-August is likely still intact," he said.
Strength in their fixed-income businesses is expected to boost fourth-quarter earnings at Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers and set the tone for the rest of the sector this week.
Lehman is expected Wednesday to report earnings of 1.70 usd a share, down from 1.71 usd in the same period last year, according to analysts polled by Thomson First Call.
Growth in mergers and acquisition -- with higher fees for advice and asset management -- are expected to offset a decline in fixed-income trading, analysts said.
Goldman is expected Thursday to report earnings of 2.32 usd a share, up 22 pct from a year ago. Analysts are forecasting gains in fixed-income and equity trading, financial advisory and debt and equity underwriting.
Outside of financials, Oracle is expected Monday to report earnings of 13 cents a share, up from 12 cents a year ago. Sales are expected to grow to 2.64 bln usd, at the high end of the company's own outlook of 2.58 to 2.66 bln usd.
Investors will be keen for any update on Oracle's long-running 9.2 bln usd hostile pursuit of rival PeopleSoft.
The retail sector will also be in focus, with earnings due from Best Buy, Bed Bath & Beyond, Circuit City and Pier 1.
November retail sales data due for release Monday kicks off a busy week on the economic calendar. Economists surveyed by CBS MarketWatch are expecting a flat reading after a 0.2 pct rise in October. Retail sales excluding autos are expected to rise 0.3 pct after a 0.9 pct rise the previous month.
Lehman Brothers said the figure will be checked by a slowdown in car sales. "Despite residual worries about the strength of holiday spending following the Thanksgiving day weekend, we reckon real consumption will increase by 3 percent in Q4 -- down from the 5.1 percent gain in Q3, but respectable, nevertheless," they said in a note to clients.
The October trade balance, due for release Tuesday, is expected to widen to 51.8 bln usd from 51.6 bln usd in September, its fifth consecutive monthly deficit in excess of 50 bln usd.
"Only last year, the US was scoring a monthly deficit in the neighborhood of a then record 41 billion dollars," said Lehman Brothers. "At least so far, dollar weakness has done little to stop the deterioration," they said.
Also due Tuesday, November industrial production is expected to show a rise of 0.3 pct, after a 0.7 pct rise in October. The gain is expected to push the capacity utilization rate to 77.8 pct from 77.7 pct.
The December Empire State Index manufacturing survey due Wednesday is expected to show a reading of 20.0, up from 19.6 in November.
Thursday brings a slew of data, including November new housing starts, expected to show an annualized rate of 1.99 mln after 2.03 mln in October. The third-quarter current account deficit is expected to widen to a new record of 169.9 bln usd from 166.2 bln usd in the second quarter.
Economists are forecasting a 0.2 pct rise in consumer prices in November, unchanged from October. Investors will focus on key energy prices where a decline in gasoline prices is expected to weigh against strong gains in natural gas prices.