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Traders Thread - Monday 20th December (TRAD)     

Greystone - 19 Dec 2004 16:55

Zoltar - 19 Dec 2004 18:07 - 6 of 16

Re last week's 'Thoughter's' piece was supposed to be pics of money AM people making a fool of themselves at the do. What happened to that? I was looking forward to that!

Digger - 19 Dec 2004 18:45 - 7 of 16

MARKETS
FTSE 100 4,696.8 down 38.4
FTSE 250 6,767.40 down 26.20
FTSE techMARK 100 1,180.30 down 5.38
DJIA 10,649.92 down 55.72
Nasdaq composite 2,135.20 down 10.95
S&P 500 1,194.22 down 8.99
Brent Crude: February 43.39 usd vs. 41.43
Gold: 438.27 usd vs. 438.72

WEEKEND BREAKING NEWS
* IMPERIAL TOBACCO gears up for 8 bln stg Altadis acquisition - Sunday Telegraph
* PEARSON eyes 800 mln usd deal to take full control of Interactive Data Corp. - Sunday Times
* RBoS to seek outsider to replace chairman Sir George Mathewson - Independent
* Euronext to launch 1.4 bln stg counter-bid for LSE - Sunday Telegraph
* Euronext in approach for the LSE - Independent
* LSE s Clara Furse offered seat on Deutsche Boerse board - Daily Telegraph
* The European Securities Forum raises concerns about Deutsche Boerse s proposed bid for the LSE - Daily Mail
* Malcolm Glazer wants to table new 800 mln stg offer for MAN UTD - Sunday Telegraph
* CORUS alarmed over sale of 9 pct holding by Alisher Usmanov to another Russian oligarch, Oleg Deripashka, according to Moscow sources - Mail on Sunday
* Waitrose online poised to surf past SAINSBURY s website - FT
* Privately-owned Ineos, controlled by Jim Ratcliffe to bid 2 bln stg for Shell s Basell plastics business - Sunday Telegraph
* BOC wins 300 mln usd deal for Mexican gas plant - Sunday Times
* CORUS s partner, Duferco anxious over Teeside deal - FT
* VODAFONE contemplates 15 bln usd move on Sprint to help Verizon break-up Nextel merger - Observer
* BT GROUP could be forced to write-off billions from the value of its telecoms network as the result of an Ofcom investigation - Independent on Sunday
* ALLIED DOMECQ faces clash with biggest shareholders over controversial bonus scheme for executives - Mail on Sunday
* FSA to probe CAIRN ENERGY shares activity - Mail on Sunday
* BAE SYSTEMS insist Greece still committed to Euro fighter - FT
* BARCLAYS suffers derivatives case setback - Independent
* Walt Disney rules out a bid for ITV - Mail on Sunday
* Baugur bid for BIG FOOD GROUP just days from completion - FT
* Tom Hunter has emerged as a 13.4 pct shareholder in the consortium set to bid for BIG FOOD GROUP - Sunday Telegraph
* BRIXTON poised to announce a series of disposals amounting to nearly 400 mln stg - Sunday Times
* NOVAR hit by devastating EC plan to ban new cables over safety risk - Independent on Sunday
* MELROSE ready to buy NOVAR divisions from Honeywell - Sunday Telegraph
* JARVIS to secure 20 mln stg lifeline but must find further 200 mln stg - Independent on Sunday
* MYTRAVEL poised to complete an eleventh hour escape from collapse by clinching an 800 mln stg financial restructuring - Sunday Times
* Big Brother founder John de Mol ups stake in TV CORP - Independent
* Stelios starts Easy listening music download service - The Business
* Tony O Reilly buys into India s biggest newspaper title - Sunday Times
* Associated newspapers may drop Evening Standard cover price - The Business
* Aer Lingus set for partial flotation next year of between 25-75 pct of the Irish state-owned airline - The Business
* Lazard files for an 850 mln usd IPO - FT
* Lazard float to cost staff 200 mln usd a year in pay - Sunday Telegraph
* John Duffield s New Star to rise again for spring listing - Sunday Times
* Travel cash giant Travelex for sale at 1 bln stg - Mail on Sunday
* Interflora rebels in boardroom lockout - Mail on Sunday
* Property entrepreneur Jack Petchey makes three disposals for 57 mln stg - FT
* Jefferson Smurfit in talks over sale of Swedish business for 450 mln eur - FT
* Yukos investor seeks 100 bln stg damages - Sunday Telegraph
* SAP strengthens links with Microsoft and aims to increase market share - The Business
* Painkiller Celebrex s heart-risk fears hit Pfizer - FT
* Disney gives 1 bln eur lifeline to Paris park restructuring - Times
* European missile-maker MBDA is homing in on rival LFK - The Business
* Bucharest and Vienna stock exchanges to link-up - The Business
* Split-capital trusts FSA compensation deal jolted by Exeter Fund Manager s withdrawal from the agreement - FT
* FSA finds Robert Bonnier guilty of market abuse after a 2-year inquiry - Sunday Times
* Retailers hopes of a last-minute rush fading, as 73 pct of shoppers claim to have completed half - if not all - their Christmas shopping: YouGov/KPMG survey - Sunday Times
* British retailer could be facing the worst Christmas for 25 years, according to Seymour Pierce - The Business
* Call for an independent overseer for actuaries - Times
* Ofcom to kick off inquiry into BBC Radio 5 s FA Cup football rights - Times
* Cost of renewable power link up to 1 bln stg: Ofgem - FT
* 2004 a record year for private equity firms, with 21.5 bln stg of British companies sold or floated - Times
* Gordon Brown attacks Opec for instability of oil prices - Sunday Telegraph
* Opec cuts could push oil back above 50 usd a barrel mark: analysts - Observer
* Tax havens to face new UN code on corruption - Independent on Sunday
* G7 must now shrink to G5 to avert crisis : Morgan Stanley chief economist - Observer

SATURDAY PRESS COMMENT

FT
Lex Column: CAIRN ENERGY (CAIRN s share price still discounts some drilling success. But at least investors are more focused on the risks as well as the potential rewards); ASTRAZENECA/Pfizer (The drugs sector s valuation does not offer clear value yet. But there is a palpable sense that the malaise reflects rising risk aversion among consumers, regulators and judges); Yukos (the Houston ruling has not offered any real prospect of avoiding the expropriation of its assets) -- Lombard: Occupational Pensions (The Inland Revenue should lower the barriers The other shoe that has to drop is reform of the state pension and benefits system); Ocado (People who shop online care about time not money. You don t need an OFT inquiry to tell you that is why shopping online costs more) -- Weekend share watch: JOHN MENZIES (looks fair value as the restructuring benefits have largely been achieved); WYEVALE GARDEN CENTRES (the possibility that venture capitalists may be sniffing around seems the only rational explanation for the shares remaining so high); ERINACEOUS (Analyst consensus is Erinaceous shares are undervalued and have further to go. A stock to watch) -- Hedge Funds start to die back ; Benchmark MAN has torrid time in 2004

Daily Telegraph
The Kate Rankine Interview: Retail entrepreneur Tom Hunter

Guardian
Market Forces: HELICAL BAR (talk the firm has unearthed a further 40 mln stg of cash it can return to shareholders) -- Interview: Werner Seifert, chief executive of Deutsche Boerse

Times
Tempus: Fortune favours the brave but good years can mislead -- Stock Markets: MONEYBOX (US firm TRM increases its holding to 8.46 pct maintaining bid hopes)

Independent
Market Report: PHOTO-ME (US fund manager Capital Groups ups holding to 4.1 pct); DIPLOMA (talk of strong trading); AG BARR (whispers of booming trading); RICHMOND FOODS (rumours of record trading) -- Private Investor: Sean O Grady tempted to add MATRIX COMMUNICATIONS to his portfolio) -- Company Spotlight: PREMIER RESEARCH

Daily Mail
Market Report: LONDON MERCHANT SECURITIES (vague rumours of a bid approach) -- Investment Extra: NORTHERN PETROLEUM (the shares are strictly for those who want a punt on the drilling)

Daily Express
Market Report: WILSHAW (hopes of acquisition by cash shell)

SUNDAY PRESS COMMENT

Sunday Times Inside the City: GUS (When stocks start trading close to break-up values it is time to lock-in profits. Retail buy-outs may be all the rage by 11 bln stg is a lot of debt to raise, and it would be very hard to pull-off); AGGREGATE INDUSTRIES (CEO Peter Tom has built a rock solid business and he is not about to sell it, but when a bidder does arrive he will be negotiating from a position of strength) -- Market Mole: BUSINESS POST (The group s prospects look good but the shares are not cheap)
Sunday Telegraph Blue chip values: STAGECOACH (sell); ASTRAZENECA (worth holding long term, but otherwise sell) -- Look Who s Trading: BELLWAY (Three directors selling shares; investors should take some profits) -- Small Cap comment: WYEVALE GARDEN CENTRES (buy);. PHYTOPHARM (buy); MILLFIELD (signs confidence returning to the UK savings market); BEMA GOLD (Hang on in there) -- Breaking Views: Pearl funds (Hugh Osmond playing a game of Take Your Pik - pay-in-kind); UK Food & Drink Industry (The pressure for government action won t go away until we stop eating and drinking so much. That s why a bumper Christmas is the last thing the industry needs) -- Edmond Jackson s Taking Stock: Financial shares: small is beautiful ; RAB CAPITAL; IFX; TEATHER & GREENWOOD (A tight market in T&G means if you are interested in buying it might be better to wait for a quiet day)
The Business Benchmark: Fiat Auto (If the new Punto and Stilo models are not high-volume money makers then Fiat Auto will be in a hopeless position. Then, the wrangling with GM about the put option will simply be to decide who has to close it down); VODAFONE (Short of a mega-bid, which shareholders won t wear, there seems to be no way out of its American predicament) -- Inside the Market: Small Cap Investor - TITON (Buy); AIM Investor - STARVEST (Speculative buy)
Observer Throg Street: HBOS (CEO James Crosby won t want HBOS to become another Lloyds TSB - he will have to gamble. But to do so, HBOS s acquisition currency - its shares - needs an upwards re-rating. Buying back stock is a sure way to get the price up); VODAFONE (CEO Arun Sarin knows the US market well and has an awesome reputation as a negotiator.. Instinctively, one feels that investors should trust his judgement whichever way he jumps); Tobacco companies (ABN Amro research shows there is pressure for mergers between the majors themselves as most of the minnows have been mopped up. Expect fireworks in 2005)
Mail on Sunday Companies & Markets: MYTRAVEL (High Court showdown tomorrow); MAINTEL (AIM debut tomorrow) -- Midas: ZYTRONIC (A speculative buy) -- Midas Update: FIRST CHOICE (Take profits at 153 pence) -- Taking Stock: Wickes deal raises stakes in DIY sector (2005 could be the year of the corporate DIY deal)

little woman - 19 Dec 2004 22:32 - 8 of 16

Evening all,

Thanks for everyones contribution & Bullshare for your thoughts.

I've got a very busy couple of days ahead of me before I can take it a bit easier for Christmas. Just discovered I'm going to start the New Year -4 days holiday from work. Never had that problems when I was trading, but then I couldn't make enough trading to trade & to live........ c'est la vie.....

Digger - 20 Dec 2004 06:59 - 9 of 16

Leading shares are expected to start the last week of trading before Christmas up slightly as hopes of a Santa rally offset continued pressure on the drug sector, dealers said.

Spread betting group IG Index is flagging the FTSE 100 to open around 4 points higher at 4701, after closing on Friday 38.4 points lower at 4,696.8 as AstraZeneca admitted key cancer drug Iressa had failed tests.

Wall Street also finished for the week lower, ending a four-day winning streak, hit by a fresh spike in crude prices and after Pfizer announced that use of its Celebrex treatment increased cardiovascular risk.

But the drop was not sharp enough to erase the week's gains, with the DJIA closing 55 points lower at 10,649.

Digger - 20 Dec 2004 07:02 - 10 of 16

ASTRAZENECA CUT TO 'NEUTRAL' VS 'BUY' AT UBS
ASTRAZENECA DOWNGRADED BY CSFB, JP MORGAN

Lehman Brothers cut its price target on Astra to 2,160 from 2,250, but retained its 'equalweight' stance on the shares.
Lehman said it continues to prefer GlaxoSmithKline PLC.

BIG FOOD CONFIRMS 95P/SHARE AGREED BID FROM BAUGUR LED CONSORTIUM

Digger - 20 Dec 2004 07:03 - 11 of 16

MARKETS
Tokyo: Nikkei closed at 11,103.42, up 25.10
Hang Seng midday 14,027.59, up 35.15

BREAKING NEWS - MONDAY
* Mystery group bids 9.35 bln usd to win auction for Yukos arm - FT
* Militants linked to al-Qaeda renew a threat to attack Saudi oil supplies, in a defiant challenge to the intense security put in place to defend the kingdom's oil installations - FT
* Painkillers face new US ruling; concerns about cox-2 class drugs could lead to removal from market; FDA action follows fears over Pfizer and Merck treatments - FT
* Lazard aims for New York listing in March - FT
* CORUS refuses to rule out a link with ThyssenKrupp as chief executive Philippe Varin says Corus will look at all opportunities - FT
* EMI and Sony form a far-reaching alliance on new digital products and distribution in North America - FT
* Shares in CAMBRIDGE ANTIBODY TECHNOLOGY will be suspended this morning until the High Court in London rules on a royalty dispute that could radically affect the fortunes of the biotechnology company - FT
* MANCHESTER UNITED tells Malcolm Glazer it will not discuss any bid for the club unless he makes a formal offer - FT
* Glazer plans fresh 80 mln stg bid for MANCHESTER UNITED - Independent
* Euronext poised to make rival offer for LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE - Express
* Travelex, the world's biggest foreign exchange company, may be sold for more than 1 bln stg after receiving a number of unsolicited approaches from private equity firms - Guardian
* Primark, the discount retail chain owned by ASSOCIATED BRITISH FOODS, understood to have expressed an interest in acquiring at least some of the Allders department stores that have been put up for sale by property group MINERVA - Telegraph
* Financial Services Authority to probe the movement in CAIRN ENERGY shares in the run-up to the 18 pct plunge on Friday; the shares dropped the day before, ahead of an announcement of a fall in its reserves in India and a change in its tax position - Mail

MONDAY PRESS COMMENT
FT
THE LEX COLUMN comments on new accounting standard for stock options, US stock trading, Japanese tax
Independent
Small Talk: Stephen Foley comments on ASOS, INDEPENDENT INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT RESEARCH, QXL RICARDO, WH IRELAND (anticipation of further strong trading news), URUGUAY MINERAL EXPLORATION, AVANTI SCREENMEDIA, ANKER (joining AIM this week), TOAD (acquisition today of a 25 pct stake in 21st Century Crime Prevention)

daves dazzlers - 20 Dec 2004 07:55 - 12 of 16

Morning all.

jj50 - 20 Dec 2004 08:19 - 13 of 16

Morning!

Greystone - 20 Dec 2004 15:20 - 14 of 16

Gosh, it is quiet here. Everyone Xmas shopping...? ;-)

Long AZN, XTA, BPRG.....

Digger - 20 Dec 2004 18:56 - 15 of 16

Orthopaedic devices group Smith & Nephew Group PLC warned that the fourth quarter will be hit by an exceptional charge of 80 mln stg, after two of its secondary insurers refused to cover their share of the liability costs arising from its macrotextured femoral knee component implant product.
S&N is currently disputing 12 mln stg which it has already spent on further surgery and the settlement of claims arising from the macrotextured knee implant -- for which its second level of insurers is now refusing to pay it back.
And the group warned that the total liability could rise to as much as 105 mln stg.
"Our primary insurers have acted very much as partners in this process and they have received exactly the same information as the excess layer insurers, but at this stage two of the excess level insurers have declined to cover us going forward," Chief executive Sir Chris O'Donnell told analysts this afternoon.
He was speaking on a conference call after the group's announcement, in which he refused to disclose the identity of the group's insurers, nor Smith & Nephew's total insurance limit.
"Our view is these guys should pay -- it is our intention to get them to pay," he added.
Smith & Nephew withdrew the macrotextured knee implant from the market in August 2003, and has been settling and revising the implants in affected patients as fast as possible since the problem -- between the bone-to-implant interface in certain patients -- was detected.
"We are managing this very actively, it is having no negative effect on our business, and it certainly is our view that we have more than adequate insurance cover to cover any likely macrotextured claims," O'Donnell said.
He added that the group has had "some skirmishes with plaintiff lawyers" in the US over these knee implants, but said that no class actions have been filed in the US.

Greystone - 20 Dec 2004 19:17 - 16 of 16

Closed AZN and XTA for a few. Still long BPRG. ;-)
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