Hi All,

Another great pick by http://www.lemminginvestor.com a small part of their analysis is below, sign up to lemminginvestor to get the full report and a lot more, very good value for money.

Emerald Energy official website http://www.emeraldenergy.com/

------------------

At Emerald, production is rising quickly. It has roughly doubled and redoubled each half year since the original output of 750 bopd in H1 '04, and bids to repeat the trick again reaching more than 6000bopd = x8 times well before end 2005, then possibly, or nearly, double again in H1 2006.

Not many companies of any kind can demonstrate a x12- x16 times multiple increase in output over five successive half years.

Five producing wells have come on stream in only four months, and are producing 1200 bopd between them on natural flow, two at Campo Rico and three in the new field Vigia, These will be worked up to four times their current output over the next six months by fitting downhole pumps and installing proper provision for taking off this extra volume. Eight wells are envisaged for the Fortuna field in 2006, beginning with the spudding of Silphide1 at end Q4 2005

crudely speaking at current total production of 3,700bopd, they show a profit rate of $2.51m/month, which rises/falls by $53.300/month for every $1 rise/fall in the price of oil.By the end of the year if Llanos basin + Fortuna etc production increases from current 3000 to 6000 bopd, as the company has predicted, plus the constant output of 715 bopd from Gigante, my figures suggest that monthly profit rises to $4.3m/month - a rate of $52m/pa.

That's roughly 30m/pa, at the start of '06, continuing to look even better with highly probable exploration successes to come in the already proven Fortuna and El Algarrobo fields, where drilling begins in Q4 and a further 8 wells at least are planned. These wells will be low-cost, low-risk, expected to cost less than $1m each. The company has more than enough cash to fund this work. $26,346,000 at end 2004, according to Evolution and $16.5m now. However the increased rate of production and the much higher price of oil suggest H2 profits will be higher by $13m, without an increase in drilling costs, thus plugging the cash drain.

That makes an eventual 10 share price target highly plausible for a PE if rated in the high 'teens, once people stop factoring in exceptionally cautious, low prices for the price of Brent, and the company releases proper reserve figures - the Vigia field has just been assessed at 13m barrels in place and Fortuna may have 30m compared with the understated total of 13m recorded in the Annual Report.

At a modest $10/barrel in the ground, that is more than three times the company's capitalisation.The City also needs to wake up to the new management's existing, successful and repeatable strategy of drilling low cost, low risk wells in proven oil fields - six this year, conceivably more next year.

We disagree strongly with Evolution's latest forecast of only $22m sales for the FY. This is just double our figure for H1. Since production is about to double, the broker's forecast may be imputing a strong set back in the price of oil, in complete contradiction to world authorities we have quoted above on the subject



Will history repeat itself, as EEN will hopefully now be heading for the value they had 8 years ago ....

SD Hi,

Good analysis, thanks :)

Hope you like the chart in the header.

I think the lemminginvestor view shows how much gain we can look forward to, as the market takes in all the points they have raised.

I hope many of the points of the lemminginvestor note, are shown in the results, and as you say "will reveal strong enough future prospects, as yet not discounted in the SP, to take her to even higher levels?"

I have sent the note to EEN HQ, to ask them if they can comment on it, they may not, but at least they will see something that might urge them to give a very bullish chairman's statement, along with an update on reserves, and planned targets/dates for raising of production :)

The way I see the stocks I am heavily invested in, is that they all have excellent potential for a 3-5 year hold, and if they get lucky and rocket in the short term, that's even better, and I can take my profit sooner, so I see them as a win-win investment. Who knows where CHP will be in 3 months, let alone 3-5 years ?, I prefer companies with solid product portfolio's, big and growing markets, growing production/sales and profit(EEN), huge unrealised potential for innovative products. I do like a gamble now and again, but only with money I can afford to lose :)

Cheers,
PM

To pass year high of about 220 will do for now ,right on PM.

Hi All,

Another economist joins the concensus for oil at $100 a barrel ....

Work out the value of EEN's pojected output, based on that price, and we will definately be heading way higher over the next year :)

Cheers,
PM


Commodity Strategists: Oil May Average $93 in 2007 (Update1)
Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Oil may average $84 a barrel next year, $93 in 2007, and $100 in the fourth quarter of 2007, as demand outpaces supply, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce's chief economist said, jumping ahead of other analysts who are trying to catch up with surging prices.

Rising consumption in China is straining supplies, and damage from Hurricane Katrina to Gulf of Mexico facilities will delay new oil projects in addition to cutting output now, Canadian Imperial's Jeffrey Rubin wrote in a Sept. 7 report. Global supply will be as much as 2.4 million barrels below projected demand by 2007, and the gap will only be closed as rising prices slow demand growth, Rubin wrote.

``We estimate that 1.8 million barrels per day of consumption must be squeezed out next year through the impacts of higher prices,'' Rubin wrote. The gap between supply and demand grows as much as 3 million barrels a day by 2008. Global oil needs are almost 84 million barrels a day now.

The 50 percent rally in oil this year stymied forecasters. They predicted an average $39 a barrel this year, according to the median of 24 analysts, strategists and economists Bloomberg surveyed last December. Oil touched a record $70.85 in New York on Aug. 30, a day after Katrina hit the Gulf Coast. The average price so far this year is $54.77.

Canadian Imperial, Canada's fifth-biggest bank by assets, last November predicted oil would average $52 a barrel in 2005, and in April raised the forecast to $55 and added a 2006 estimate of $61, Peter Buchanan, a senior economist who works with Rubin, said in a phone interview.

Morgan Stanley, Goldman

Other firms are also raising their forecasts. Morgan Stanley's chief economist, Stephen Roach, said this week that he now expects an average price of $64 a barrel for oil next year, and he lowered his global economic growth forecast as a result.

Goldman Sachs & Co.'s commodity strategists, including Steve Strongin, raised their 2006 forecast to $68 on Aug. 18. Arjun Murti, a Goldman Sachs equity analyst who tracks oil producers, roiled markets when he said in March that a ``super spike'' could lift prices as has as $105 a barrel. Even as he made that prediction, he forecast an average price of $55 for all of 2006.

How high prices will have to go to limit demand and get it back in line with global supplies is hard to predict because of the unprecedented rise in China's energy needs, Rubin said in a phone interview.

Consumption in China, the second-largest user of oil after the U.S., and in other expanding Asian economies, is sensitive to rising income and not prices, the CIBC economists said in their report. Per-capita energy use in China in 2003 was about one- tenth of the U.S. rate, according to the U.S. Energy Department.

Chinese Demand

``About 42 percent of the growth in global demand is coming from China, where there is virtually no price sensitivity to demand,'' Rubin said in a separate phone interview. ``There's a huge relationship to income growth there, but a very uncertain relationship to price at all.''

The International Energy Agency today said oil demand is being reduced by record prices. The agency cut its estimate of 2005 world oil demand growth for a third month, citing slower fuel sales in China, Thailand and other Asian countries.

Chinese demand for oil to fuel the fastest-growing major economy in the world is expected to rise 3.4 percent this year, down from 15 percent last year, agency said in a report today. The country's appetite for crude is forecast to expand 7.5 percent in 2006, according to the agency, which advises 26 industrialized nations.

Lack of Supply

The supply needed to meet rising global oil needs will not be coming, according to the CIBC economists. Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have ``limited'' opportunities to boost output, and increases in Russian production appear to have reached a plateau, Buchanan said. OPEC pumps about 40 percent of the world's crude oil.

Hurricane Katrina exacerbated the supply crunch by damaging platforms and delaying output from fields such as Thunder Horse, Atlantis and Tahiti, the report said. The Gulf accounts for about 30 percent of daily U.S. oil output and 24 percent of gas production.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc, the biggest oil producer in the Gulf of Mexico's deeper waters, today said output from the Mars field and nearby sites may be shut for the rest of the year because of Katrina.

Gulf of Mexico Outlook

Hurricane Dennis a month and a half ago also did damage in the region. BP found its $1 billion Thunder Horse platform, the largest of its kind, listing at a 20-degree angle after Dennis swept through in July. The project, which was in the development stage, won't start pumping oil this year as originally planned, BP said.

Instead of adding nearly 600,000 barrels of oil a day by 2007, new fields in the Gulf may contribute just 300,000, according to Rubin's report.

``When you juxtapose that with the apparent insensitivity of the demand curve, then what happens is that even though it's a relatively small reduction in supply, you need huge price increases to rein in demand,'' Rubin said during the interview.

Global output will rise about 1.2 million barrels this year and 1.7 million in each of 2006 and 2007, the economists predicted. If demand rises 2.5 percent annually from 2005 until 2007, a shortfall will develop by next year, the report said.

The economists reviewed government and other data and concluded a 10 percent increase in crude prices would reduce demand by 0.7 of a percentage point over three to four years, the report said. This figure is about half the rate used by the U.S. Energy Department in its estimates, the report said.

``You have had a very significant reduction in the growth of demand, something in the neighborhood of a 40 percent reduction in the growth of demand already,'' he said. ``Unfortunately it's taken huge prices to achieve that.''

Ticking up nicely already :)

Cheers,
PM

Other Oil news all looks good for EEN, as we know, they are already 40% to 50% cheaper than they should be :)

====================================================

Fuel increases as serious as 1970s oil shock, says Brown
By Marie Woolf, Chief Political Correspondent
Published: 12 September 2005
Gordon Brown has warned that the rise in petrol prices is as serious "as the oil shock of the 1970s" which led to years of recession.

As fuel protesters prepared to mount a wave of demonstrations across Britain this week, the Chancellor said he sympathised with hauliers and motorists on low incomes who had been hit by steep fuel cost increases.

Lorry drivers planning to hold up traffic with slow-moving motorway convoys called on the Government to take immediate action. But Mr Brown said he would not intervene to prevent the price of petrol rising further - although he hinted that petrol duty, which has already been frozen, would not increase in his mini-budget later this year.

The Chancellor said Hurricane Katrina had exacerbated the crisis, but he thought a slump could be averted by maintaining stability in the economy.

"I am aware of the challenge the hauliers face, I am aware, particularly, of the problems low-income families face with petrol prices rising," Mr Brown said on BBC Television's Sunday AM. "The public do understand that stability is all-important here and what we need to do is deal with an oil shock which is as big as the oil shock of the 1970s in terms of its effect on the economy."

Mr Brown has been talking to leading oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, to try to persuade them to increase production. The Government fears a repeat of the chaos of 2000, when fuel supplies were cut off, motorways were blocked and there were huge queues for petrol.

Contingency plans have been drawn up by the Department of Trade and Industry for rationing at petrol stations if supplies are blocked by lorry drivers over a long period.

Andrew Spence, spokesman for the Fuel Lobby, said: "We want peaceful protests. We are going to maintain a presence, but we will not be stopping supplies going in or going out. It should not be disruptive. I can't say strenuously enough that people should not be panic-buying."

Prices of standard unleaded petrol have reached up to 1 a litre with the average price rising from 80.2p a year ago to 97p.

Gordon Brown has warned that the rise in petrol prices is as serious "as the oil shock of the 1970s" which led to years of recession.

As fuel protesters prepared to mount a wave of demonstrations across Britain this week, the Chancellor said he sympathised with hauliers and motorists on low incomes who had been hit by steep fuel cost increases.

Lorry drivers planning to hold up traffic with slow-moving motorway convoys called on the Government to take immediate action. But Mr Brown said he would not intervene to prevent the price of petrol rising further - although he hinted that petrol duty, which has already been frozen, would not increase in his mini-budget later this year.

The Chancellor said Hurricane Katrina had exacerbated the crisis, but he thought a slump could be averted by maintaining stability in the economy.

"I am aware of the challenge the hauliers face, I am aware, particularly, of the problems low-income families face with petrol prices rising," Mr Brown said on BBC Television's Sunday AM. "The public do understand that stability is all-important here and what we need to do is deal with an oil shock which is as big as the oil shock of the 1970s in terms of its effect on the economy."
Mr Brown has been talking to leading oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, to try to persuade them to increase production. The Government fears a repeat of the chaos of 2000, when fuel supplies were cut off, motorways were blocked and there were huge queues for petrol.

Contingency plans have been drawn up by the Department of Trade and Industry for rationing at petrol stations if supplies are blocked by lorry drivers over a long period.

Andrew Spence, spokesman for the Fuel Lobby, said: "We want peaceful protests. We are going to maintain a presence, but we will not be stopping supplies going in or going out. It should not be disruptive. I can't say strenuously enough that people should not be panic-buying."

Prices of standard unleaded petrol have reached up to 1 a litre with the average price rising from 80.2p a year ago to 97p.



---------------------------------------------------------------------------

UPDATE 1-High oil prices a risk for world economy-BOJ chief
Sun Sep 11, 2005 7:34 AM ET

BASEL, Switzerland, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Surging oil prices pose a risk for the otherwise smoothly running world economy and that risk may be stronger after Hurricane Katrina, Bank of Japan governor Toshihiko Fukui said on Sunday.

Speaking to Reuters on the sidelines of a bi-monthly meeting of central bankers in the Swiss city of Basel, Fukui also said he was firmly committed to maintaining the ultra-easy monetary policy the BOJ has kept since 2001.

"The world economy is running smoothly at the moment but there is a need to see what kind of risk factors there are. Oil prices have been a risk factor. We need to see how strong a risk it has become, also in light of the Hurricane (Katrina)," Fukui said.

Oil prices have surged past $70 a barrel to hit a record in recent weeks due to growing supply concerns following Hurricane Katrina.

On the Japanese economy, Fukui said: "The Japanese economy has overcome the effect of high oil prices so far. The economy's vulnerability to shocks has been improving."

"We don't need to rush into (changing the policy). Our commitment to the policy is firm. There is no chance we will abandon the pledge to keep the policy intact until the CPI moves steadily above zero," he added.

Under its ultra-easy monetary policy, introduced in March 2001, the BOJ floods the money market to keep interest rates near zero.

Fukui added he was unaware of talk that the Group of Seven finance ministers and central bank chiefs might revise a statement on currency flexibility to reflect reforms in China.

The G7 finance ministers and central bankers urged the need for currency flexibility, a thinly veiled reference to China, in their Florida meeting in 2004 and they have stuck to the same language since then.

"I haven't heard of the talk. We don't know until we have discussion," Fukui said.

The G7 finance ministers and central bank chiefs meet in Washington on Sept. 23-24.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Katrina impact: About 60 percent of Gulf of Mexico's oil production still blocked


September 10, 2005 4:52 PM

The Associated Press

NEW ORLEANS Nearly two weeks after Hurricane Katrina struck, more than 120 Gulf of Mexico oil and gas platforms are still shut down.

The Minerals Management Service also reports that nearly 60 percent of the gulf's normal daily oil production remains blocked from the market.

The shutdowns also blocked more than 38 percent of the gulf's normal daily natural gas production.

On Friday, oil closed at just over 64 dollars a barrel, almost 50 percent higher than a year ago.

does martin keeley have anything to do with een still?- or has he moved full time to goo?.

seems to be building a head of steam will get noticed more when breaks the 100m barrier at around 202p imho worth 300p in short term but needs to deliver its promises thats why we have set backs 6000 bopd is their target if achived 2006 will be good year and 10 is not out of the question longer term

they could also afford to pay small divi at some stage .....you never know

Hi All,

Sticking a bit at the mo' on balanced trading, need a drilling report or something to kick through 2, or some decent press/tipster/analyst coverage to generate interest, and alert people to the potential here !

Cheers,
PM

Garypat2 Hi,

I have an E-Mail waiting for you, but I can't reply to MAM-Mail, and you don't have MAM-Mail set up, I need your E-Mail address to reply :(

Send me your address in a MAM-Mail !

Cheers,
PM

Top up time folks :)

Cheers,
PM

Have indeed done so! Nice opportunity today.

seems to be moving ahead of the results perhaps testing the 200p level again today needs to get above this level and stay abouve it to move on next step will be 250p

Surprised this thread has gone quite, with results out next Wed 28th Sept.
So much progress has been made, expectations for a positive (maybe
startling) set of figures.
Yet you'e gone to sleep, not much time to get in/top up left.
cyril

Nice set of results with a good positive chariman's statement, so the price falls off by 10p or so. Sells mainly punters, no one serious. So I expect this will recover in due course.

sd

RNS Number:8407R
Emerald Energy PLC
28 September 2005



28 September 2005


EMERALD ENERGY PLC ("EMERALD" OR THE "COMPANY") ANNOUNCES INTERIM RESULTS FOR
THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 30 JUNE 2005

HIGHLIGHTS

* The Company completed successfully the drilling of three wells during
the period and a further one well since the period end;

* Production increased over six months from an average of 2,344 bopd in
December 2004 to 2,745 bopd in June 2005;

* The Company currently has five wells in operation producing in excess of
4,000 bopd;

* Two additional wells will be put on production when construction of an
enlarged surface facility at the Vigia field is completed at the end of 2005.


Summary financial results
1H 2005 1H 2004
Bbl of oil Bbl of oil
Gross production 460,000 159,000
Gross production after royalties 408,000 130,000
Attributable production 255,000 120,000
Attributable production sold, including cost
recovery 353,000 130,000
$ '000 $ '000
Revenue 12,386 3,303
Adjusted EBITDA(*) 4,831 1,292
Profit before tax 3,265 932
Cents Cents
Earnings per share 3.15 2.10
________________________________________________________________________________

(*) Adjusted EBITDA is earnings before interest, tax, depletion, depreciation,
amortisation, exceptional items and non-cash charges relating to share based
compensation and cost recovery.

In the six months to 30 June 2005, prevailing oil prices allowed the Company to
achieve an average revenue of $35.09 per barrel of oil sold, compared to $25.41
per barrel, achieved in the same period of last year. Production costs incurred
in the reporting period reflect the increased level of exploration activities
directed at acquisition of E&P licenses, as well as market-driven increases in
the supplier costs directly linked to the increases in demand for oil.

Of the 353,000 barrels of oil sold by Emerald, 98,000 barrels represent partial
recovery of reimbursable costs incurred by Emerald in the Campo Rico block. In
accordance with the terms of the Campo Rico Association Contract, 55,000 barrels
of oil produced in the Campo Rico block were delivered to Ecopetrol as
contribution towards Ecopetrol's share of the Campo Rico oil production.
Ecopetrol's share of production costs has been fully expensed by the Company and
will be recovered by Emerald from the Campo Rico field production, once the
field is granted either commercial or sole risk status by Ecopetrol.

In the reporting period, the increased level of production and favourable
economic environment allowed Emerald to achieve profit before exceptional items
and deferred tax provisions of $3,003,000 compared to $1,067,000 achieved for
the whole of 2004.

Commenting on the results, Chairman and Chief Executive, Alastair Beardsall,
said:

"Steady growth in production, achieved on the back of our exploration success in
the Campo Rico block in 2004, allowed Emerald to capitalise on the exceptional
strength of the oil pricing environment in the first half of 2005. Further
exploration success in discovering the Vigia field in the Campo Rico block
earlier this year has added to the Company's ability to deliver growth. This
underlying growth in both production and cashflow allows Emerald to continue its
active exploration programme into the next twelve months. The first half results
announced today demonstrate our continuing progress in becoming a significant
player in the E&P sector."

Hi All,

EEN still undervalued, latest EVO note out today says BUY with a target of 2.50

You want a copy, register here http://www.evbgresearch.com/ or e-mail me at stanelco@gmail.com

Cheers,
PM

LONDON (AFX) - Hydrocarbons producer Emerald Energy PLC reported a sharp upturn in pretax profits in the first half to 3.27 mln usd against 932,000 the previous year, with turnover almost quadrupling to 12.4 mln usd.

The company said its overall production increased over six months to an average 2,745 barrels of oil per day in June from 2,344 bopd last December.

Emerald said it planned to drill at least four exploration wells and a number of development wells over the next twelve months.

'The thrust of operations will continue to be early production from newly drilled wells and optimisation of fields that have been put on production,' said Emerald chairman and chief executive Alastair Beardsall.

newsdesk@afxnews.com

Read the Investers Presentations

http://www.emeraldenergy.com/

Shows wells to be drilled 2006 and how many.

potential reserves for fields

5 new wells Campo block etc etc

http://www.emeraldenergy.com/docs/2005-Interim-Results-Presentation.pdf

My link not working go to the Emrald Energy website link in thread header

click the investers presentation on the site

Emerald Energy PLC
05 October 2005


Emerald Energy Plc

Operations Update

Emerald Energy Plc ('Emerald' or the 'Company') is pleased to provide the
following update:

The Company has contracted Ismocol, a Colombian drilling contractor, to drill
its exploration well, Silfide No.1, to a depth of approximately 5,000 ft in the
Fortuna Block in the Middle Magdalena Valley, Colombia. The rig is currently
being mobilized and plans to spud the well on 7 October 2005. The Silfide No.1
exploration well will target the, as yet un-drilled, Lisama sands.

It had previously been announced that Silfide No.1 was to be drilled by Saxon's
Rig No. 222. However the increased activity in the worldwide rig market has
driven rig day rates to a level where the operational advantages of using an
existing contractor's rig did not compensate for the additional costs of using
an over sized rig to drill to the relatively shallow depths for the proposed
well. Under the contract with Ismocol the rig day rate and mobilization charges
are substantially less that those proposed by Saxon.

The Company is currently producing in excess of 4,300 barrels of oil per day
from 5 of its 7 production wells; the remaining 2 wells will be put on
production as the construction of enlarged surface production facilites is
completed.

Alastair Beardsall, Emerald's Chairman, said: 'Silfide No.1 is the 1st
exploration well to be drilled into the Lisama sands on the Fortuna block and
will fulfill this years drilling commitment under the Fortuna Association
Contract.'

Please note the Company's web site at
www.emeraldenergy.com
has been updated
with a copy of the new IFRS accounting policies and the presentation 'Interim
Results to 30 June 2005 & Operation Update'.

Enquiries: Helen Manning 020 7925 2440

05 October 2005