The share price is up sharply this morning in good volume even after its recent excellent run. There was talk in April last year but it never took off. If it is American(as the press said) I would guess General Electric are the most likely bidders. Has anybody heard anything?

Oh dear, not looking good is it......I hold no position


From Daniel Stewart this morning :

Target price and forecasts under review

KGN has this morning announced that profits in coming years will be below current market estimates. The CEO, John Maltby is also stepping down with immediate effect.

We note the following:

As previously flagged, unlikely that a buyer will emerge;

CEO stepping down a sure sign that there are serious problems with the quality of the business and the prospects;

the strategy of selling more books of business is highlighted as a reason for profits being below market expectations. This in itself raises a number of questions: I) are management trying to sell as much of their poorer quality books as possible ii) have potential suitors said not interested in the business as a whole because of question marks about the quality of the business as a whole but they are interested in buying those books that appear to be in better health? Iii) is the Group struggling with funding? Iv) do management anticipate the costs of funding rising?

whatever the situation, and it is likely to be a combination of factors including, increased competition, deteriorating credit quality and lower early redemption fees, the picture is not pretty. Management are unsure of where profits are likely to be, how can shareholders therefore make a decision as to whether or not to retain their holdings. In the absence of any clarity we recommend SELL.

My market area.
This co-incides with a very poor business decision some time ago.
Kensington decided that the FSA TCF regime gave them the opportunity to disallow packaging of their business by many 3rd party packagers. They also reduced rates on their product to entice clients, working on the theory that best advice meant brokers and introducres would be forced into recommending Kensington product. They funded this reduction by a corresponding reduction in broker commission.
The idea was that while they would reduce their margin, they would massively increase volume. In fact they managed to reduce both margin AND volume as brokers found reason to recommend other lenders, whose commission was higher. Wrong, but human nature.
Now they are in the unenviable position of less new lending, meaning smaller books, and fixed rates that are unattractive as secured bonds etc.
All stemming back to not realising that the sub-prime market, at the client facing end, is very different to the FSA view of it.
It is all made worse because US lenders were sniffing around Kensington as a good entry to the UK market. Kensington thought that high volumes were the key to a successful sale. Not so. The US wanted the business model mainly, with the volumes produced at the rates then. Disatisfied, they have entered by creating their own model, based on Kensington as was.
The only way back is to buy the borrowers from the brokers, and that is going to be painful as they raise rates and re-instate the old commission levels. The truth is, even that may not be enough as other lenders have made the proposition and brokers have grown familiar with them, so will continue to use them.
All IMO, but I do know this business very well.
Alan

Thanks Alan, a good insight to a steady decline that no-one else appears to have noticed (in the company, etc). I don't hold, as it was always "too much" for my understanding and somehow I'm not too sure about lending to people who are on the edge of being a bad-risk....but what do I know?

-It just shows that self-interest is still the no1 driver Directors had better NEVER forget..... After all, that's why they have their noses in the trough! You'd think that would be One Fact they'd know deep down.

SELL at all cost! Now 640p.