After researching this company this week and giving it some thought I have decided to start a new thread with a header that perhaps more accurately reflects where this company is at present.

Hardman has interests in production at its Chinguetti field, offshore Mauritania, where it is currently producing a net 7,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd). This is set to increase as more wells are drilled towards in Q4 2006 and into 2007.

The exploration portfolio is also very strong, with numerous fields being tested over the next eighteen months (see below for more details).

The share price has taken a bit of a battering in the last few months, in common with many E&P stocks, but could in my view be ripe for a turnaround (further explanation follows).







I have done my best to evaluate HNR's prospects.

I was helped by info from the Report to Shareholders for the Quarter Ended 30 June 2006 - see Hardman's website www.hdr.au.com for details

Current Chinguetti production of 37,000 bopd (7,030 net to HNR) and 6,000 from recently-tested Waraga could together justify a market cap of 407 mil using an oil price of $64 as in the last quarter, profit ratio 17% of turnover, P/E 15.

HNR also had 57 mil of net cash at quarter end after debt is taken into account.

Add the cash figure to production-related capitalisation and you have a co with a justifiable market cap of 464 mil, or 63.8p a share. Current SP is 59 / 61.5.

Basically the SP dropped earlier in the year due to the uncertainty over Chinguetti's production figures, caused by unexpectedly low well pressures. The field was supposed to produce 75,000 bopd and is now only producing half of that. Remedial drilling is due to be carried out to create another three wells which should generate another 30,000 bopd total (5,700 net to HNR).

It would seem that the Ching problems have been pretty much priced in now and that the market is looking to further good news from continued drilling.

On my modelling of the situation you basically get all of HNR's other prospects for free. Juicy ones include the potential for a number of 1-billion-barrel-plus discoveries offshore Guyane, which I have been following through my interest in Northern Petroleum (NOP). However, it may be a while before a number of these are drill-ready, plus of course they do have to find commercial hydrocarbons.

To my mind the portfolio seems broad enough to offer a real chance of some big successes.

The SP may jump if Mputa-1 is successful. There is also the possibility of a net 900 bcf of gas at Flamant-1, which spuds shortly.

With lots more drilling promised into 2007, the programme looks to be capable of producing a lot of good news.

Having been bearish on this stock before, I'm now beginning to like the look of what I'm seeing. The current SP is a test of the 59p level hit in mid-June and also December 2005.


DRILLING TIMETABLE.

I have attempted to put together a drilling calendar. It's probably a bit rough and ready, but here goes:

NB No liability will be accepted for the content or accuracy of this list as drilling schedules, etc, may be subject to all kinds of changes. Please refer to Hardman's website and/or news releases for confirmation.

Current (Aug 2006) Drilling Mputa-1, Uganda. Possible net potential 6,000 bopd similar to Waraga-1? Operator: HNR

Current (Aug-Sep 2006) Drilling Flamant-1, Mauritania. Net 900 bcf gas. Operator: Dana

Q4 2006 Chinguetti EDIT: Drilling 1 additional well, Mauritania. Net 1,900 bopd Oil. Op: Woodside

Q4 2006/Q1 2007 Drilling Aigrette-1, Mauritania. Net 16.2% primarily gas. Operator: Dana

H2 2006 Tevet, Labeidna and Banda (estimated net 500 bcf Gas) discoveries, Mauritania, to be evaluated as tie-backs to the Chinguetti facilities. Tevet fast-tracked for development decisions by end 2006. HNR net interest 21.6% or 24.3%, Op: Woodside

Q4 2006/more likely Q1 2007 onwards, Suriname onshore 25-well programme, HNR net interest 40% in a prolific S. American oil province (adjacent fields total 1 bn bbl oil in place, producing 13,000 bopd). Op: Staatsolie

?Q1/Q2 2007 Drilling Kibaro-1, Mauritania. Net 31.5 mmbl oil. Op: Woodside

Q2 2007 onwards. Chinguetti, Mauritania. Up to 4 additional producing wells, plus two injectors to be drilled. Net 7,600 bopd Oil, possibly. Op: Woodside

Proposed 2007, Guyane, drilling various prospects 1 bn bbl oil or more (6 targets according to NOP), HNR net interest currently 97.5% but likely to be reduced on formation of JV. Op: HNR

H1 2007. Tiof, Mauritania. Net interest 21.6% Op: Woodside. Decision due on investment in Tiof. First oil possibly due in Q3 2009, possible initial 10,000 bopd net to HNR.

Late 2007 - Tanzania: Maturation of seismic prospects to drillable status. Net interest 50% Op: HNR

2008 at the earliest: Falklands, drilling. Net 22.5% Op: FOGL


Comments on errors or admissions are welcome. This summary does not include a range of seismic prospects and other potential leads for which dates have not been finalised, many of them in Mauritania.

The potential for the Falklands prospect is huge and I acknowledge Xmortal for having drawn attention to this on his thread of July 2004, however I feel that there is a lot more strength in the portfolio as listed above which will provide both cashflow and a significant lift in the SP long before the Falklands prospects become a reality.

Counting on my fingers (!), there are between now and the end of 2007,something like 13 drilling and/or production instances.

Considering that many of these prospects could add 10p per share in NAV, even if only a few are succesful (and we know that many are dead certs, e.g. Ching and some of the other Mauritanian prospects), one could easily see 1 a share on the basis of a couple of good new discoveries. Something like Flamant-1 could add 20p per share NAV by itself if estimates of recoverable gas are proved correct.

Note: EDIT: We are awaiting a review of reserves for Chinguetti due to the production issues metnioned above. This could halve the previous estimates and accounts for much of theSP wekaness at present.

All in all, I consider that Hardman is getting to the stage where it could be due a turnaround in its SP performance, and where forthcoming exploration and production lend the company an air of credibility as a potential multi-bagger with interests in billions of barrels of oil. EDIT: this may take slightly longer than previously anticipated as the run of disappointing news at Chinguetti is stretching the timetable.

As always, please DYOR, all IMO.

Good points, SWW. Am grateful for your clarification as I have misplaced my thinking-cap today! Elec production ought to be good news all round as it enables HNR to extend the supply-chain vertically and drive profits

By the same logic it would be good if HNR can find gas in Uganda, but I take it that the prospect is basically oily? No problem, as long as HNR have a handle on saleable product and clearly a ready market, it should be money in the bank.

Drilling update out today; Flamant-1 back on track.


RE: MAURITANIA DRILLING UPDATE
PAGES: 1
Hardman Resources Limited (Hardman) provides the following update on its exploration drilling
operations:
MAURITANIA: EXPLORATION DRILLING UPDATE - FLAMANT-1 (BLOCK 8)
Since the last report on the Flamant-1 exploration well, repairs have been made to the Blow Out
Preventer (BOP) and it has been re-run to the seabed. As at midnight on 4 September 2006, drilling of
Flamant-1 to the next planned casing point at 2,110 metres had recommenced with the well having
reached a depth of 1,880 metres.
Flamant-1 targets Cretaceous Carbonates and has a planned total depth 3,370m. The well is located in
1,414m of water, approximately 210km from the shore and 195 km North-West from Pelican-1, a
Cretaceous gas discovery drilled in Block 7.
Equities in Block 8 are:
Block 8
Dana Petroleum (Operator) 41.5%
Hardman Resources Ltd 18.0%
Roc Oil Company 2.0%
Wintershall 25%
Gaz de France 13.5%
Times and dates for Mauritania wells refer to GMT (Mauritania time), 8 hours behind Western Standard
Time, Perth.
Peter Thomas
Chief Financial Officer

You are doing a great job over here (as opposed to 'over there' at a8v8n where I reside most days), I have a largish holding in HNR, which has cost me a small fortune (if I sell!) so far. :(

Flamant? Who knows, but if they do find hydrocarbons there, then they talk of 1bln barrels equivilent I think. Fingers X'd as someone says above, but even then I shall stay put without that being a success.

That's how I feel. :)

We dont say much here Rayrac because we are the only 3(?) investors left in the whole world!

What we really need is georgetrio buying a few as he seems to have a Midas touch about him

I have 10,000 shares in the company I bought mine at 58.44p on22nd of august, they a dropped since my purchase. I am staying put for the time being. All it takes is some good new and finds.

janet - welcome and thank you for highlighting your presence.

That's a good price in the long term, and if they happen to hasve a bid approach as well, there is quite a bit of discount in it too.

FID on Tiuof will do it and news of Tevet tie back would help.

KIngfisher coming in foir Hertiage in Uganda too, plus I see Tullow have just bought adjoining licenses in the DRC(Congo), so they must think it's worth it.

So now we have 4 investors here.

Hi-make me number 5! I have been lurking on these boards for nearly 2 years and have dipped in and out of HNR

why should any predator want to buy Hardman?

LOL

You cynic, you!

Such a laugh.

well it's true! .... i have seen others voice likewise for other minnows, more in hope i reckon, than in judgement .... just because the big boys are stuffed with cash, it does not mean they have to chuck it at companies with very questionable assets.

Did I say that cynic? (companies stuffed with cash etc......)

No I didn,t.

Frankley I dont think Hardman will be taken out at all, and have said as much elsewhere.

Except........

Tullow has 80pence attriubted to their so for the same assets as Hardman in Uganda.

Now look at the Hrdman price and tell me what you think.

Morning all. I seem to have started something with this "Band of Five" - LOL.

Obviously I'm a tad miffed that the SP has dropped off further rather than recovering from around 60p as I had been hoping it would.

It's a pity about the overall oil price sinking - however, given that HNR have hedged most of their Chinguetti production at around $64 per barrel (if memoy serves), they are protected to some extent.

I share SWW's optimism regarding Tiof and Tevet - there is a lot of potential in the various tie-backs to the Chinguetti platform (Berge Helene FPSO) and I should think that success with these should provide some motivation for the SP.

All IMO, PDYOR.

This will be all right long term, and the long bit may not be too far away imo.

KBC Peel Hunt on Oils

Decent post, SWW, thanks.

sp now looks interesting and worth a play. Company looks as though profits now on the up and sp going other way! Mmmmmm any price under 50p a share and I'll be in also as of tomorrow.

Hardman Resources Ld - Mauritania Drilling Report
RNS Number:1413J
Hardman Resources Limited
19 September 2006


STOCK EXCHANGE / MEDIA RELEASE
RELEASE DATE: 19 September 2006

AUSTRALIAN CONTACT: Simon Potter
Hardman Resources Ltd
+61 8 9261 7600

LONDON CONTACT: Patrick Handley
Brunswick Group (UK media relations)
+44 207 404 5959


RE: MAURITANIA DRILLING UPDATE


PAGES: 1


Hardman Resources Limited ('Hardman') provides the following update on its
exploration drilling operations:

Mauritania: Exploration Drilling Update - Flamant-1 (Block 8)

Since the company's last report on 12 September 2006, the Atwood Hunter has
drilled the Flamant-1 exploration well to a depth of 3,299 meters. Current
operations are preparing for wireline logging.

Flamant-1 is located in 1,414m of water approximately 210km from the shore and
195 km North-West from the Pelican-1 gas discovery in Block 7.

On completion of Flamant-1, the Atwood Hunter will drill the Aigrette-1 well in
Block 7.


Equities in Block 8 are:
Block 8
Dana Petroleum (Operator) 41.5%
Hardman Resources Ltd 18.0%
Roc Oil Company 2.0%
Wintershall 25%
Gaz de France 13.5%

Times and dates for Mauritania wells refer to GMT (Mauritania time), 8 hours
behind Western Standard Time, Perth.

All reported depths (except water depth) are referenced to the rig rotary table
(RT). Hydrocarbon shows will be only be reported after all required logs have
been run and evaluated.



SIMON POTTER
CEO & Managing Director

2 to 3 days then.

Fine by me!

BTW, seen SOLA? Taking off nicely, it would appear.

A nice tick-up this afternoon, on turnover of more than 1.1 million shares.

HNR Bid: 50.5p Offer: 52p Change: 2.75

Makes a nice change :o)