This is huge get in before the heard arrives to work this morning, the new VOG

got back from work at 5.30 to find out that i have bought the ten thousand fep that i left on the books this morning. I have paid 1.32 per share.They have closed a lot lower at 1.22. Any way I will sit on these for a while and see how they do. Good luck to all holding these.

Harrycat, agree but there is seem a support formation at around 120p do you think?
Personally I think it may have a little rise from now on leading up to process of converting the license.

Tonker ... we have an office in R'dam ..... often i go via A'dam and also spend a couple of days there, but could not work the trimetable for that this time

will it bounce at 120p?

seemingly not! .... or at least not immediately ..... something feels wrong, but i can't put my finger on it ...... if not in, then suggest stay out until the fog clears a little .... if already in, don't know what i would advise except perhaps lighten the load a bit

cynic - as it seems to be occring as predicted, I would say the market has taken punters for a ride, those who cashed in have done well, those who have not may not enjoy this ride.

Sampaguita was known about before this, so were the reserves, Forum have doubled up on Sterlings work, who gave it away for 14% of Forum shares(Why?), it was described as stranded by them, it still is and it's still in the ground.

Any rise was premature imo.

ok The Master has made us all a bit richer -- thx

But what about the basics -- 3 things I think

1. At minimum 3.4TCF and FEP farm out 75% this thing is close to 3 on a NPV basis -- assumes 6 years to start of production and ready to flow gas at $400m per TCF (this is low)--- that would be at 25% to FEP, so $400m*3.4*.25= $340m or 170m in 6 years time . Current market cap 33m Using discount rate of 12% NPV is c80m

2. Look at the statement from CEO of sterling energy at Sept interims

"with now a sizeable and growing cash position and an active and largely carried exploration portfolio"

"we continue to seek new drilling opportunities and production acquisitions that can bring significant upside"

Now if Sterling Energy know about FEP which they should as a 15% shareholder. Plus small co owns 35% of FEP. Would that small co want money in hand now so they could have some control ? therefore Sterling could take out at a discount to current NPV -- 2 take out minimum --- and look pretty if the upside TCF targets get anywhere near possibilities


3. All this has no upside to potential 20+TCF or that farmout could be 50%. Downside it's worthless so 0p. Uspide downside risk 10:1 plus in my favour, 3:1 at low end


Reloaded

Confident?

No worries ;-)

LOL.

Okay, I'll go along with that, lets see.

Sterling giving this up for 14% of Forum is the issue here.

Why would they do that?

It's only about a year ago.

Either, in their too hard basket or they could not afford more poaper to fund it I suppose.

Look, I promised to stay off the board, so I will now.

I'll put my hand in front of my mouth and watch for a goodly while.

Let's hope it was Sterling's "Shell" moment. Shell were kind to Cairn, Sterling to Forum ?

SeaWall --if I may call you that

Remember your comments of 2 days ago

"Next I have discovered that STERLING ENERGY have applied for a Service Contract for GCSE101, on the 22wnd August 2006. "

"Why if Forum hold 100% of the license?"

Yes and it seems as I probably said, that Sterling may be farming back into their ex license.

Dont make sense to me, poor business at best, unless thay were cash strapped to develop it, seems like a maybe.

I'll leave it now and see how it goes.

Good luck.

bigger fish coming to play at lows??

Article on Oilbarrel.com gives good coverage of recent news and suggests, quoting an evaluation by Edison Investment Research, that the NPV of 3.4 TCF at Sampaguita could be 221p a share.

Oilbarrel.com Homepage

Going to be a lot of press coverage about this huge Gas find over the weekend, with plenty of discussion about possible Shell interest/take-over, will send this back to 160p Monday for sure.

Oil Barrel item

I suggest as it is thought it will take 7 years to bring to market, this sp will not be sustained.

If you read the reserved item, you will see a fair few of my comments have been repeated.

I would say, be careful out there!

Well, that's YOU well wrong Master.

this looks like VOG - gas tomorrow with a big unknown on what tomorrow means