< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

Lets see if AFR can close 'Blue' seems it has recovered very well on the intra day chart.

Placing of stock annouced this am, could be as much as 50% dilution?
cyril

A bit of an over-reaction at the moment to what is, in my view, good news assuming that the placing is successful?

Oil and gas explorer and producer Afren plc is planning to raise around $125m through a share placing.

It is expected that trading in the new shares will commence on 5 May.

The firm said production of 15,000 to 25,000 barrels of oil per day is expected from the Ebok field in Nigeria in the first part of next year from an early production system rising to 35,000 to 50,000 bopd by the end of 2010 from full field development.

as market cap looks to be only 165m, does that not effectively double the number of shares in issue and thus halve their value?

surely i have that wrong ...... and yes of course it will equally mean that (most of) the Ebok field stays in-house

By my calculations : this means 357 million new shares...(I might be wrong)....move to the main market...we will be able to put this in an Isa soon and a lot more people will buy this stock....production at the momment of 26000 barrels per day and this little company is moving very very fast....this placing today is not bad news.....!.

all possibly or potentially true, but that was not my question

Forget about the number of new shares...it could be somewhere between 200 to 350 million....!....one thing is for sure they will producing a hell of a lot in about 18 months time....promising little company this....and boy ! do they move fast or what ?.

i am not actually disagreeing .... i was just trying to determine if i was as dumb or even dumber than i look! ..... so to ask again, will this dilution technically halve the vlaue of the shares? ..... i think it does

Cynic, yes the number of shares in issue will near enough double, though we don't yet know what the placing price will be. My point is that AFR is very undervalued in comparison with, say, TLW and they say "Afren believes that it is now appropriate to increase its equity capital base and strengthen the balance sheet to finance the EPS of the exciting Ebok development. It is intended that Phase Two of the Ebok development will be financed out of internally generated cash flow.", so no more borrowing intended. They are already reducing existing debt from cash generated so I think with the increase in sales, in the short term, made possible by raising funds through this placing is excellent news.

IEC did a similar placing, diluting the company by a third(from memory), once
they settled down the SP returned back to former rates and of course gained
considerably.
AFR have also indicated they wish to join the main market, something which can only be seen as possitive long term.
I've added todays news to the heder.
I've personally closed my positions until i see hoe things work out, but will be watching and will buy back .
cyril

Oh, yes and technically the sp should halve but in reality I don't expect it will: if anything we might even see an increase when the dust settles and investors realize the true potential now of AFR.

The company will have a large capital which should undermine the value of the shares...if you took away the capital and were just left with a huge extra amount of shares : the sp would plunge but with that amount of dosh in the coffers and the capital bit by bit being used on Ebok....the sp should remain around current levels...and the closer we get to production so the market in theory should price this up !.

Okay, AFR now looks very securely funded and the likelihood of move to main market is very important. I took this rns as very good news and have bought back in around 35 pence. The dilution is insignificant to the upside. Very happy.

"Yes Cynic, you are correct" would have sufficed, but thank you - lol!

The shares coming to market are probally already spoken for anyway imo

Cynic, lol!

This will be in my Isa at some stage...certain !.

Some of my thoughts.

1 Why issue such an RNS as the SP was most likely to fall?
Answer, So the issue price (which will probably be at a discount)is lower, to
satusfy the institutions?

2 I agree that the issue is likely to be already subscrubed,i base that on the
statement regarding funding prior to the prelimaries?

3 As above a discount to the SP which could be 30p (or less)?

4 The move to the main market is really positive, "but its expensive"

5 A mirror of IEC when(from memory) the SP dropped from 450pish to 4
before recovering.

It'll be interestong to see what the next RNS has to tell us and i await before
commiting myself on what will be a long term investment. As Required feild points
out it will be "isable" so worth keeping in mind.
almho
cyril

cyril