Amities . l have been discreetly buying this stock since it was 39p . And the more i learn the bolder are the positions i take . .....Floated in Dec 2004 it was oversubscribed and before costs the required $15 million was raised. At the helm is ex BP head of Global exploration and Resavoir management . Furthermore a success story at Global Expo . Now Nick Johnstone wants to set up on his own . And after speaking to him l am not at all surprised . He is like a "Who s Who " of the hydrocarbon world ...He has ALL the prerequisites for success so why work for some other lackey ! .. namely connections from his ertwhistle employers . He has assembled a first class management team from ex colleauges at BP ; and is his business model is simple . AFR farms in on "Big Oils " inception upstream ; and with its scale of economy it works closely with "Big oils" fields on the look out for excellent workovers oppertunities .... Already lt has via a complicated j/v a percentage of the Sao Tome and Principe acreage -Located between the oil rich waters of Nigeria and those of Sao Tome and operated by Texaco / Chevron and Esso; and believed by many to be the new North sea . . 3D Seismic testing and magnetic graphic imagery and satellite imaging has located a labyrinth of channels leading to a main resavoir which is believed to14-15 mmbbls of oil and which would leave AFR with its share of 120/140 million barrels for NO cash outlay .To ensure early cash generation Afren has entered into a production sharing agreement in the developed Ogedeh field { adjacent to the BP operated Olowi marin field which is believed to yield 180 mmbbloe. Furthernore AFR has agreed to drill the lbekelia project for Ascent resources which is expected to produce 2,500 b/pdoe to satisfy AFR percentile share ,ln addition it is a believed resouce of several years . .. , .Not a bad start for a company with little more than six months in the making . ....and well worthy of investigation !! .....@+ J

don't know; did not see text with context ...... perhaps like Shit or Bust! ..... French - please enlighten, including literal meaning

TFC - savez-vous ou l'avez-vous orthographifaux? Dolpour aller outre de la matie, voulez juste savoir quelques choses.

"....et dignes bons de la recherche.........."

Corrigent!

Cynic. Alors ! CA suffit tu branleur ! ! c'est n' impotuoi ! Merde .Conneries-pur et simple J'ai trop de choses en tete en ce moment .Pensez-Y...(rires ) . Je suis tres occupe ! ca ne vaut pas le peine d'y penser...Qu'est -ce vous voullez dire pas la !! Comme on peut se tromper . Un bon conseil - Oui. Tu es raison a mefiez-vous des appearances mais je suis vrai de la tete aux pieds As for others on the thread the phrase "c'est creve ou marche " was not literal and used as in " lts Sink or Swim " or as cynic says "shit or bust" but without the kamikaze interpolation such a phrase invites . Ln addition with the word marche also meaning market there was a pun...... Aww sod it lol @+ J

TFC

LOL

Very good

Thank you.

Frenchy ..... you flatter me by conversing to me in your native tongue! ..... though i speak reasonable conversational French, and am ace with restaurants + food + even fish (a tricky one that), when discussing business, I revert to English ..... A client of ours once memorably said, "Let's continue in English for then we will both be able to understand what you are trying to say!" ...... by the way, I assume un branleur = a stirrer or trouble-maker

cynic - I started that, sorry.

I wanted to test the poster a little, as I thought I recognised the style, now I am not too sure.

The reason for the test is that we have seen stocks that can't lose before, (LGB and EVS for instance), and unfortunately I have seen quite a few lose quite a lot.

AFR has a bit more in the basket than those obviously, but the sp has doubled on speculation that has not yet been backed up by the Company, or any other Company for that matter.

So, it don't hurt to ask questions imo.

doesn't worry me one way or the other :) ....... i am always chary of any statement that claims share X is a cast iron certainty to rocket ...... often it is like ELP (my fave whipping boy!), but just occasionally there is some sense as with VOG (other now-defunct board) ..... and actually, I wait with somewhat bated breath on the end result with EME

Please go to EME thread

Cynic, I have to get you to a French-English dictionary so you can look up "branleur" - you're close, but not close enough!!

AFR currently looking bargainous if what Shares Mag said this week is correct about 15 - 20k bpd by end 2007 is correct. Gotta do some more research and will throw in my deux centimes' worth when I have done so.

Looking even better at the current price of just over 60p, with upcoming development drilling and possibly very positive exploration results. Any takers?

EDIT: ECL's report on the scope of Block 1 makes for very encouraging reading. It is based on very conservative oil prices, using a range of estimates between $25 and $40 and still makes a convincing case for the commerciality of Block 1, should hydrocarbons be discovered.

Download the PDF here.

Friday, May 26, 2006
Chevron Press Release Says Company Discovered Hyrdrocarbons On Obo-1

In a press release just faxed to us from Sao Tome and not yet available on Dow Jones, Chevron says it's hit oil on Block 1 but it won't say how much - except that it's "at least" 150 feet of net pay in multiple reservoirs - or even if it's a commercial discovery.

Here is the press release sent to us from the Gabinete Petroleo (Petroleum Office) of Sao Tome and Principe minutes ago:


Chevron
Press Release

Obo-1 Well Encounters Hydrocarbons in Nigeria/Sao Tome & Principe Development Zone's Block 1

May 26, 2006: The Nigeria - Sao Tome and Principe Joint Development Authority, Chevron and its co-venturers Esso Exploration and Production Nigeria-Sao Tome (One) Limited, and Dangote Energy Equity Resources, have encountered hydrocarbons in the Obo-1 exploration well in Block 1 of the Nigeria - Sao Tome and Principe Joint Development Zone.

The Obo-1 well logged a cumulative total of at least 150 feet (45 meteres) of net hydrocarbon pay in multiple reservoirs and provided important reservoir rock and liquid samples, which need to be avaluated and integrated into the interpretation of the Obo Area to determine the next step of the apprioasal process. At this stage, it is premature to determine whether or not Chevron and its co-venturers have made a commercial discovery.

The Obo-1 well us located in 1,720 meters of water (5,640 feet) and the drilling operation was completed in 63 days on March 15th, 2006.

The JDZ Block-1 is located approximately 190 miles (300 kilometers) north of the city of Sao Tome and approximately 125 miles (200 kilometers) south of the city of Port Harcourt in Nigeria. Chevron JDZ Limited has a 51 percent equity share in the block while Esso Exploration and Production Nigeria-Sao Tome (One) Limited, and Dangote Energy Equity Resources have the remaining 40 and 9 percent equity, respectively.

General Manager, Government & Public Affairs

Afren PLC
30 May 2006

Obo-1 Discovery in Block 1 of the Nigeria Sao Tome and Principe Joint
Development Zone Confirmed



Afren (AIM:AFR), the oil and gas company focused on establishing itself as the
premier pan-African independent exploration and production company, announces
that Chevron, the Operator of Block 1 of the Nigeria Sao Tome and Principe
Joint Development Zone ('JDZ'), has confirmed that it has discovered
hydrocarbons in the Obo-1 well, which is the first exploration well in this
area.


The Obo-1 well logged a cumulative total of at least 150 feet (45 meters) of net
hydrocarbon pay in multiple reservoirs and provided important reservoir rock and
liquid samples. The well is located in 1,720 meters of water (5,640 feet) The
JDZ Block-1 is located approximately 190 miles (300 km) north of the city of
Sao Tome and approximately 125 miles (200 km) south of the city of Port
Harcourt in Nigeria.


Chevron JDZ Limited has a 51 percent equity share in the block, ExxonMobil holds
40 percent, and Dangote Energy Equity Resources Limited holds the remaining 9
percent. Afren plc is the beneficial owner of 49 percent of the equity in
Dangote Energy Equity Resources Limited, through its wholly owned subsidiary
Energy Equity Resources A.S.


Brian O'Cathain, Chief Executive of Afren commented:

'I am delighted that the first well in this area has proven oil and gas. This
bodes well for the play, and we look forward to further appraisal in this
exciting exploration province.'


30 May 2006

,,Amities / OK . Lets play ball .....A combination of the Chevron press release from Lagos coupled with the slightly different statement { R.N.S. } from AFR shows this is a successful oil and gas play . Only moot point being "Will this prove a gusher ? ,,,,,,,,Bonne chance ,,,@+ J

bit of gossip from poster Art2004 on ihub.

Heard from an experienced reporter in London re: Obo-1 that Chevron deliberately drilled off structure to see the extent of the field.
Actually the Email was from Barry Morgan. I usually don't refer to Barry's name but as this is not an African political topic, I hope he won't mind.
I Emailed him 2 days ago, as I had posted, about the differences in the April report by Chevron and Friday's announcement,
Barry responded,.."will have to investigate further".
Last night I sent him a second Email which read, "Any feedback on the accuracy of the April Chevron reports on OBO-1 out of Nigeria?"
Barry responded, "looks like exactly what I was hearing before, they deliberately drilled off structure, to see extent of the thing."
For now, That's the rest of the story.

aldwickk,

That would make sense when put in the context of the Chevron Press Release at your post #69:

extract: The Obo-1 well logged a cumulative total of at least 150 feet (45 meteres) of net hydrocarbon pay in multiple reservoirs and provided important reservoir rock and liquid samples, which need to be evaluated and integrated into the interpretation of the Obo Area to determine the next step of the appraisal process.

Where 'interpretation of the Obo Area' is the key phrase

or am I reading too much into it all? Either way if it is off structure and is still commercially viable, then subsequent drills should bring about the 'gusher'! as TFC aptly put it. :-)

Any views on today's RNS?? Good news or expected, already known etc.?

Am I dyslexic or has the production schedule slipped slightly? I thought 15 - 20 kbopd were due by end of 2007, now it's sometime in 2008.

Never mind - everyone knows that the first rule of investing in holes in the ground is that production schedules are 10% professional best-estimates and 90% wishful thinking.

Under any other market conditions than those of the last couple of weeks, I would have expected the SP to be up on this kind of news. However, at 114 mil market cap already and at present they are doing not much in terms of production, plus maybe the Nigeria factor is putting the brakes on things a bit?

Definitely one to watch, but if the summer continues to depress share prices then it may be worth waiting before buying.

From a brokers's roundup:

Bridgewell reiterates buy Afren

Panmure Gordon has said that Afrens additional reserves could add 30p to its current NAV

TFC, ST, Any current views on AFR and its SP dive, this has shown marked weakeness, was it overvalued or is the market missing something?

Silvermede, it would take a better man than me to be able to see through the current SP histrionics. I guess the market wasn't happy with a valuation over 100 million after hints of the production schedule slipping; add in a generally nervous market and that's probably enough of an explanation.

Today's slide does seem a bit big, though. Possible support around 43p now that 56p has been well and truly breached??

BTW you mentioned in post #76 the NAV increasing by 30p. Out of interest, what was Panmure's original target (or do you have confirmation of the revised one)? It may not help the SP right away, as various oilers are currently trading way below NAV, but would be good to know.

PS re today's share price skid, I notice that most oilers on my watchlist (about 30 companies) dropped a bit today. The only one that rose was Ramco (by some 50%, but before you get excited it was due to the reversal of some unfavourable court judgment), and you know you're having a weird day if Ramco is wildly outperforming the sector!!