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Dubious sell-off     

ellio - 15 May 2006 09:10

The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.

If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.

cynic - 13 Mar 2007 20:16 - 600 of 1564

first support is likely to be 12000 or fractionally below .... if it falls below that, then 11700 may be next, but can't remeber off-hand and of course it will not straight line either

Big Al - 13 Mar 2007 20:27 - 601 of 1564

cynic

12050 is our latest support, thereafter I've taken a measured move from recent highs which happen to take us right back to 11700, which was the high before last May's sell-off. Handy eh? ;-))

Strawbs - 13 Mar 2007 21:25 - 602 of 1564

Hmmm. Could be messy in the morning. Two weeks ago the selling followed the markets around the world, and will probably do the same again. Selling last time was also across asset classes, which might indicate a need to sell "anything" to cover margin calls. If there's a large amount of leverage still in play, the second sell off may well be deeper than the first.

Take care out there everyone....

In my opinion......do your own research......etc.

Strawbs.

hlyeo98 - 14 Mar 2007 07:45 - 603 of 1564

Are you in for a scare today?

cynic - 14 Mar 2007 08:26 - 604 of 1564

me? ..... no though for sure it will be another baby and bathwater day ....... as warned, the highly speculative stocks such as SOLA (sorry guys!) and small E&P stocks will get worst hit, though the sell-off will be indiscrimatory ...... as previously mentioned, took quite a lot off the table about a week ago and have a Dow short running as a good hedge ....... had set a limit on that of 12000, but have nowremoved it and will let run ...... also have a smallish gold long as i feel $ will weaken (no prospect of a rate rise) which is likley to reflect in gold price

HARRYCAT - 14 Mar 2007 16:20 - 605 of 1564

Here's hoping the FTSE can hold above 6000. If so I am hoping for a bounce up tomorrow & friday, which means I should be buying now. If not, then into the abyss & I will be glad I didn't buy! What do the chartists think?

Strawbs - 14 Mar 2007 16:27 - 606 of 1564

I think a lot will depend on how the Dow finishes tonight and what happens in the far east. Next stop would be around 5835 on the FTSE. If the Dollar/Yen continues to fall towards 114, you could see that level reached pretty quickly.....

In my opinion, DYOR.

Strawbs.

Big Ted - 14 Mar 2007 16:44 - 607 of 1564

well portfolio held up well today, RTN being the star, bought couple more items, will keep close eye on though, still consider this a correction, but will be taking any profits on the next rally, i think this volatility will last a while, who knows...

hlyeo98 - 14 Mar 2007 18:50 - 608 of 1564

Certainly very exciting riding the market now...Dow was down 110 points earlier to 11950 and it has recovered to breakeven now. Very enjoyable. See where it ends today remains a suspense. Much better than a Agatha Christie novel.

Big Al - 14 Mar 2007 20:50 - 609 of 1564

Such a strong rebound is interesting.

Big Ted - 14 Mar 2007 21:03 - 610 of 1564

probably proof if ever needed the bull run is still present, too many buyers piling in to support the market, it will take several drops before sentiment changes...
*damn* not a single smelling mistake and i've been on it since 4pm...

cynic - 14 Mar 2007 21:08 - 611 of 1564

market has indeed finished up today, against all expectations, but i shall be holding my short open

Big Ted - 14 Mar 2007 21:28 - 612 of 1564

so one has to predict a modest gain on open tomorrow, i can well imagine 6175 close friday, 12,225 dow... but thats the beauty of this market now, who can be really be certain...?

hewittalan6 - 15 Mar 2007 07:42 - 613 of 1564

No idea where the markets in general are going, guys, but I do know the bearish sentiment in the sub prime lending market is at least badly overdone and at worst totally unfounded.
It is based on the thought that delinquancy rates are going up and the lenders own credit rating with S&P or suchlike will be badly hit.
The truth is that two of the biggest sub prime lenders have performed reviews on their sub prime borrowers and found (to their own suprise) that delinquancy is lower than anticipated by a quite large degree and have announced that next week, they will be reducing their loadings on base rate / LIBOR to increase applications.
The two are the sub prime intermediary arm of General Motors and the sub prime intermediary arm of Merril Lynch. ML have also, interestingly, reduced their fixed rates as they view the UK interest rate as benign and less likely now to increase.
With the markets as they are, logic means nothing, but it does seem the worries in this arena are unfounded.
Alan

Strawbs - 15 Mar 2007 08:17 - 614 of 1564

Possibly a little overdone. I think a larger worry is that lending will now dry up and so flatten an already depressed housing market. That will have a knock on effect in construction and will probably impact consumer spending too.

Strawbs.

cynic - 15 Mar 2007 08:51 - 615 of 1564

Barclays clearly does not like this sub-prime market and has called in its loan to Firsty Century ....... US housing starts are flat as a pancake ..... construction industry new jobs are at their lowest for 15 years ....... Strong bull markets will regularly overlook this sort of grim statistic, but the extreme volatility we are seeing suggests to me that over the next few months, down is still much more likely than up.

hewittalan6 - 15 Mar 2007 09:11 - 616 of 1564

Barclays never did. They are something of an odd ball in this market in that they only have direct lending and do not use any other form of introducing / marketing, and they usually didn't bother securitising most of their debt. I would not regard them as a touchstone.
I have no idea what the US market may be like, but I do know that large US lenders are seeking a quick and easy way into the UK market, as they view this as much less risky.
A well known US company is currently seeking to buy UK sub prime lenders, including a very "famous face" one you see on TV all the time. They have confidence in this market.

cynic - 15 Mar 2007 09:18 - 617 of 1564

I'm wrong? .... I don't think so!! ..... Telegraph headline today ..... "Barclays has demanded the immediate repayment of about $900m of mortgage loans from New Century Financial, America's second largest sub-prime lender"

hewittalan6 - 15 Mar 2007 09:27 - 618 of 1564

Never said you were wrong.
Read the post again, get off your high horse.
I said I had no idea of the US market.
I said Barclays were an oddball that never did like sub prime lending.
I said they often didn't securitise their debt.
I said I would not regard them as a touchstone.
I NEVER said you were wrong.
The headline refers to Barclays lending money to a business that lends money to sub prime borrowers. Barclays do not care for US sub prime market. So what??
Good grief, man, can you never accept that anyone may have a differing opinion to you??

cynic - 15 Mar 2007 09:35 - 619 of 1564

likewise you .... keep buying those SEO ... strongly touted as a company with unbelievable prospects!!!
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