The first ASOS Challenge was successful in the sense that it taught us a few lessons on investment timing. Only three of 11 shares ended in profit and that included ASOS itself: congratulations to legend for BNH and bosley for SEO. Back to the drawing board for the rest of us (over the year the portfolio would have thrashed any opposition!).

Participants welcome for the second challenge. Primary objective is to find shares that will double in value by 1st July, beating ASC in the process; secondary to be most successful stock-picker in terms of the value of your 20K portfolio. Rules are:

1.Each participant has 20K which can go into 1,2,3 or 4 shares in units of 5K.
2.ASC has 20K and is team yardstick, not in individual portfolios.
3.Duplication between entrants OK with no upper limit for total for one share.
4.Start weekend of 21st Jan. Buy price half way between closing offer and mid.
5.Latest time of entry to be 8 pm on Sunday, 23rd Jan.
6.Challenge to close Friday, 1st July.
7.Entrants can switch up to a total of 10K; av. of Friday close bid and mid.
8.Progress reports to rank shares by performance but also participants (initial only to protect from the ridicule of outsiders!).

Participants welcome. Just post selection here or on ASC thread.

Eric

Eric - Following Dil, whose comments I find more rational than most, I also went for BPG and not BPRG. Please adjust accordingly. You will see that my suggestions are (hopefully!)stronger companies likely to be less volatile than many suggested, so I do not expect to win, but hope to demonstrate that decent quality will usually outperform the majority. Don't want to complicate the issue, but dividends are very valuable in the long term (particularly when rolling up in Peps/Isas), so when I give the reasons end of July why my lot are not better, this will get a mention!

partridge: thanks; correction made; good philosophy - slightly more conservative against risk than some, but probably sleep more peacefully!
Dil: ditto; look forward to seeing logic.
Barry: sorry! Only fair to have fixed deadline. If generally appreciated, we should run again from 1st July.
sandrew - Cornwall seems fine for celebrations in early July. Do you want to be A1 rather than just 'A'?

Eric

I think I'd better leave that to you Eric. Thanks anyway!

We'll leave the A1 until you've won the contest, sandrew. lol! Eric

seo and agl doing me proud.

Can't do any worse than last time....I hope!!

Eric - Thanks for your response - I will keep an eye out for the next comp.

Regards Barry

Eric
Sorry slightly o/t.
Have you seen todays rns on MLS, can you give me bullet points briefly on why you think its a buy.
Looking to go in tomorrow with small stake, it seems a bit like a lottery but the rewards could be very attractive.
Thanks in anticipation.
Steve

Eric,
I trawled the AIM market for the four best trends (upwards!!!) on metastock and put them in. SD.

steevieweebie

Sorry not to come back sooner re your MLS question (been up to town for 24 hours). I hope participants will free to ask this type of question of the promoters of the various shares. A brief answer here; I ll give a more considered post to the MLS site (inactive I see) in the next couple of days.

I had a stake in MLS a year or so and got out with a smallish loss before the price collapsed on profit warnings. A takeover bid at the current price has been rejected and a significant placing of shares by Charles Stanley underwritten by Nomura is in process - Fidelity and Aberforth have announced stakes in the last couple of days. This underpins the current price of 7.12p. I saw their attraction as being their involvement in the sharp end of cancer research and treatment with the renowned Prof. Sakora as Scientific Director. Charles Stanley (investment advisory arm - chinese walls exist) are happy with the strength of the replacement directors and finance raised includes funds for new acquisitions. They could climb back up as fast as they came down but it must be deemed a speculative buy. But it is a one-way bet which is the sort I like!

Eric

2nd ASOS CHALLENGE

Table below shows performance of the selected shares in the first week. The holders are on the left with a double entry implying 10K of shares held. Overall portfolio has hardly moved and pretty well even number of winners and losers. I will aim to add cap. next week.

epic cost___ shares_ price value gain%
BGT_ 130.5__ 7660___ 162.5 12448 24.5 JJ
NLR_ 394.5__ 5080___ 473.5 24054 20.0 CDMM
CEY_ 12.625_ 39600__ 15___ 5940_ 18.8 I
MLS_ 7.19___ 69500__ 8.25_ 5734_ 14.7 W
AGL_ 128.25_ 3900___ 143.5 5597_ 11.9 B
SEO_ 7.19___ 417300_ 8____ 33384 11.3 BBSSUW
BGC_ 84.8___ 5900___ 92___ 5428_ 8.5_ K
HCEG 63_____ 7935___ 68___ 5396_ 7.9_ O
RSG_ 466.25_ 1070___ 502.5 5377_ 7.8_ P
CFP_ 0.28___ 3570000 0.3__ 10710 7.1_ WY
PCI_ 10.625_ 47000__ 11.38 5349_ 7.1_ T
NRG_ 220.25_ 2270___ 231__ 5244_ 4.9_ C
DGM_ 18.19__ 110000_ 19___ 20900 4.5_ BEMS
MOB_ 230.75_ 2165___ 240.5 5207_ 4.2_ C
BAG_ 811____ 615____ 844__ 5191_ 4.1_ P
ACE_ 258.25_ 1935___ 266__ 5147_ 3.0_ G
EPD_ 51_____ 9805___ 52.5_ 5148_ 2.9_ I
THUS 15.19__ 32900__ 15.5_ 5100_ 2.0_ O
CRDA 327.375 1525___ 333.25 5082 1.8_ P
IDS_ 212.5__ 4700___ 216__ 10152 1.6_ GH
KCOM 62_____ 16100__ 62.5_ 10063 0.8_ O
CIU_ 162.25_ 3080___ 163.5 5036_ 0.8_ G
BPG_ 667.625 1500___ 664__ 9960_ -0.5 DP
GHH_ 191.5__ 2610___ 188.5 4920_ -1.6 G
AZM_ 137.5__ 3635___ 135__ 4907_ -1.8 W
GWP_ 20.25_ 8315___ 117__ 9729_ -2.7 E
IDOX 11.75__ 42500__ 11.38 4837_ -3.1 v
PAY_ 255.75_ 1955___ 247.5 4839_ -3.2 m
DFD_ 136____ 3675___ 131.5 4833_ -3.3 A
BPRG 67.25__ 14870__ 65___ 9666_ -3.3 T
FTO_ 8.69___ 57500__ 8.38_ 4819_ -3.6 Y
XEN_ 7.44___ 67200__ 7.15_ 4805_ -3.9 v
AUG_ 256.25_ 3900___ 245__ 9555_ -4.4 DE
DES_ 62.25__ 8030___ 59.5_ 4778_ -4.4 H
TND_ 22.5___ 111000_ 21.5_ 23865 -4.4 LLLLR
TRT_ 87_____ 5750___ 83___ 4773_ -4.6 K
SPS_ 50.5___ 49500__ 48___ 23760 -5.0 AHIKK
PET_ 53.75__ 18600__ 50.75 9440_ -5.6 JR
CASH 142.25_ 7030___ 133.5 9385_ -6.2 CD
PMD_ 0.875__ 571400_ 0.8__ 4571_ -8.6 Y
NBR_ 50.5___ 9900___ 46___ 4554_ -8.9 U
BNH_ 125.25_ 15970__ 114__ 18206 -9.0 AIRR
MDW_ 9.09___ 165000_ 8.25_ 13613 -9.2 SV
ASC_ 78.5___ 25480__ 70___ 17836 -10.8 ZZZZ
KYS_ 15.875_ 63000__ 14___ 8820_ -11.8 U
PDX_ 231____ 6495___ 202.5 13152 -12.3 AJT
PKL_ 192.25_ 2600___ 162__ 4212_ -15.7 H
TAD_ 9.375__ 53300__ 7.38_ 3934_ -21.3 Y

________________________ 439447_ -0.1

BGT (Bright Things) on a rapid climb after agreeing for Bonsai to distribute their 'Bubble' preschool software in the UK and Eire: 100K consoles and 200K software licenses in the first year. Unfortunately, can't find out what this means financially. Jules? Have opened a thread to try and find out.

NLR (Neteller) climbing almost vertically, including new Durlacher forecast of 12 per share. Cap looks pretty huge at 570M but they may just have a licence to print money! Good thread.

CEY (Centamin Egypt). Looking for renewal of gold exploration/mining licences in Egypt. No announcement but clearly the rumours are there. 3 proposers here and decent thread.

MLS (Medical Solutions). Price collapsed from around 50p to 7p on back of profit warnings. Clearly successful placing; sacked director offenders and decent replacements; operating in key cancer market including liquid based cytology systems (first three NHS licences should bring in 1m p.a.). May be quite a climb back but put forward on basis of good recovery prospects and no downside. I have promised to open thread.

AGL (Angle). Venture funding and consultancy re commercialisation of intellectual property, including recent venture for York University re IVF. Positive interim statment has helped sp. No post on thread since last April - I think bosley has wanted to keep it to himself!

SEO (Stanelco). Most popular on the challenge. Positive comment to Fund managers on trials with ASDA for which results awaited. Cap. still far too low at 60M (compared, e.g., to PDX). Active, enthusiastic thread.

moneyplus, Jules and bosley are off to a praticularly good start. Top 8 are (allow names for good performance!):

gain %
m moneyplus 10.33
B Bosley 9.72
W EWRobson 7.83
J Jules 7.78
C Capa 5.75
S seb190774 4.44
P partridge 3.27
O optimistic 2.9

Barclays are sponsoring an investment challenge with the Stock Exchange. Similar: 5K each in 10 shares; starts 1 March but you can register now and change before it starts. 40K prize with 5K for winning the regional heat. Info. via Investaquest website or Stock Exchange.

Obviously there are threads covering many of these stocks. However, do say something about any of your recommendations if you feel it would be helpful or ask the proposer any pertinent (or impertinent!) questions.

Eric

Eric, well done on your updating... I am sure I don't deserve to be fourth after the dismal performances of MDW and AEN this week, but congratulations to the rest of you with such good stock picking... may it long continue:-)

well done to the current leaders! had a bit of a bad week... sps and des are still awaiting news, feel they both still have high potential and could take off (fingers crossed) pkl had a good set of interims out today and i feel are a good long term buy, think they were missing "that little bit extra" which would make the outlook for 2005 very nice! ids seem to have buy written all over them.

hope this current challenge doesn't come down to timing again!!! above four shares have performed very well over the last year, will have to wait and see if they continue.

Anybody with any spare time on thier hands should check out itr and ibg, ibg has set of like a rocket this year! long may it continue :-)

Good look to all holders and a big thanks to Eric for setting this portfolio up!

dawsinho

Its inevitably about timing but then jgt has taught me just that for any investment. The www.investatec.com competition has just the same problems. No cost to enter: I like that sort of one-sided trade. You have to have one of your 10 companies in your home region: pleased to find SEO under south-east.

Have updated the portfolio evaluation post with comments on top 6 - some tempting morsels there!

Eric

Eric,

How many partcipants are there in this ASOS challege? Must've taken you ages to set all this up!

Jules has just alerted me to this - am I too late to join in?

SM

kus - 21 plus team entry from ASC. Not that long; the sort of thing I've alwys done for fun since playing HOWZAT as a boy and keeping all the averages!

supermum - sorry, but we had to be firm on the deadlines. Already have a lady in the lead, you'll be pleased to hear. Probably start again 1st July. Expect you are into Bright Thing, are you? - needing info!

Eric

lol- i wish! see you guys in july!
SM

Eric,

Please will you elaborate on "Switching....." see Rule 7 (above)? Thanks. Also never discovered what the origins of "ASOS" were - any chance of a brief resume?

Jules: your 10K in BGT far outweighs two small losses! Well spotted. Have opened a thread on BTG to try to dig out more info so hope you will comment there. Hemscott aren't showing any forecasts, but someone, somewhere should know what one of these 'Bubbles' is going to cost. Could still be good time to get in despite last week's rise.

Kus: ASOS used to trade as As Seen on Screen, epic ASC: 'as seen on' refers to the actress, typically, who originally wore the clothes item being sold; hugely successful with young ladies. Good thread to sift through to build up a picture. A 10-bagger last year but currently suffering from profit-taking. However a lot of life left in the share.

Eric