Thought Id start this one going because its rather dead on this board at the moment and I suppose all my usual muckers are either at the Stella tennis event watching Dim Tim (lose again) or at Henly Regatta eating cucumber sandwiches (they wish,...NOT).

Anyway please feel free to just talk to yourself blast away and let it go on any company or subject you wish. Just wish Id thought of this one before.

cheers GF.

Yes. I saw it last night. It was the BBC Hardtalk series. He seems quite a tough character and very interesting

Greek PM Alexis Tsipras calls referendum on bailout terms


Prime minister returns from Brussels and tells Greece that terms offered by creditors ‘clearly violate the European rules’


Helena Smith in Athens

Friday 26 June 2015 23.25 BST


In a dramatic move that will put Europe on tenterhooks, the Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras told his fellow citizens last night he would call a referendum on the bailout accord that international creditors have proposed to keep the debt-stricken country afloat.


Following an emergency meeting of his cabinet, Tsipras said his leftist-led government had decided a package of austerity measures proposed by the country’s creditors – made in a last-ditch effort to avert default – would be put to popular vote. The referendum will take place on Sunday 5 July.

“After five months of hard negotiations our partners, unfortunately, ended up making a proposal that was an ultimatum towards Greek democracy and the Greek people,” he said in a national address, “an ultimatum at odds with the founding principles and values of Europe, the values of our common European construction.”

The leader, who only hours earlier had rejected the proposed reforms after several days of high-stakes talks in Brussels, said Greeks now faced a “historic responsibility” to respond to the ultimatum.

He said the reforms were “blackmail for the acceptance on our part of severe and humiliating austerity without end and without the prospect of ever prospering socially and economically”.

Describing the vote as a “historic decision”, Tsipras said he had informed the leaders of France, Germany and Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank about the decision. “I asked them to extend our current bailout by a few days so this democratic process could take place,” he said.

Greeks would be asked whether they wanted to accept or reject excoriating tax hikes and pension cuts that the EU, ECB and International Monetary Fund have set as a condition to release desperately needed bailout funds. Greece’s current rescue programme, already extended once, expires on 30 June.



More: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/26/greece-calls-referendum-on-bailout-terms-offered-by-creditors

an easy summation ......

Greece Referendum Not A Simple Yes Or No
Sky News
Austerity, deficits, loans and currencies. Greece's euro crisis is about lots of things, but in the end it has always been about something else: national sovereignty and democracy.
When Greece joined the Eurozone (without a referendum, it should be said) it ceded some of its sovereignty.
Since the country now shared a currency with fellow Europeans it would no longer have direct control over its monetary policy.
That was simply part of the deal - and it is part of the explanation for how it ended up in the mess it is in.
It meant a dilution of sovereignty in economic "peacetime".
As part of the single currency, Greece lost control of its own interest rates, and thus lost influence over the yield on government bonds.
The country could suddenly borrow at unprecedented cheap rates - despite not having the productivity to justify it.
So began the bubble that fuelled the Greek crisis in the first place (a simplified version of history, I admit).
But even during "peacetime" Greece still maintained a certain amount of control over its fiscal policy - taxing and spending.
When the crisis struck and it needed to rely on its fellow Eurozone nations (and the IMF, and ECB) for financial assistance, it effectively ceded most of its fiscal sovereignty too.
In return for the loans, the Greeks had to accede to certain demands.
There is nothing particularly unusual in this.
When the UK borrowed money from the US after the Second World War a whole host of demands came attached to it: that the UK should open up its economic system; that it should sell off a whole load of publicly-owned assets at cheap prices.
There was even talk about selling off the Crown Jewels.
None of this is particularly pleasant, but it is an unfortunate reality.
To make matters worse, in Greece's case, the lenders deciding those conditions discredited themselves repeatedly.
Their forecasts for the impact of austerity on Greece were completely wrong.
Their programme contributed to a depression deeper and longer than anything seen since modern records began.
But, having ceded its sovereignty - both monetary and fiscal - the Greeks could do little about it.
They had to suffer as a poorly-constructed bailout and overly-aggressive austerity was imposed on them.
In January the Greeks voted in Alexis Tsipras as prime minister on a manifesto which promised to cancel austerity.
The problem, of course, was that because of all of the above, in practice the Greeks did not and do not have the sovereign right to do that themselves.
The best Mr Tsipras could do was to try to get a better deal and improve the terms of the bailout, which is what he has been doing in Brussels and Athens for the past six months.
His decision to call a referendum next weekend seems to be a tacit admission he has failed.
There are a number of short and medium term problems, the most pressing of which is what happens to the financial system between now and next weekend.
The slow-motion invisible system-wide bank run afflicting Greece's financial system over the past couple of months threatens to turn into a rapid, visible one.
People are already being photographed queuing up to take money out of their bank accounts.
There is the question of what the Eurozone decides today at its finance ministers' meeting.
Do they grant Greece the five-day bailout extension they are demanding? Do they refuse?
Do they simply talk about plan b - the capital controls and restrictions they would need to impose to incubate Greece ahead of a possible euro exit?
What part does the International Monetary Fund, who will almost certainly not get paid on time on Tuesday, play in the saga?
But more than these short-term questions is the bigger medium to long term one: if Greeks do as their prime minister is suggesting and vote no to the current bailout deal, what does that imply?
As far as many here in Brussels are concerned, it means Greece will effectively have voted to leave the Eurozone.
But Syriza figures are insisting it simply means another stage in the negotiations.
The answer to that question will determine the way many vote.
In Greece there is both widespread disdain for the bailout and the conditions attached to it, and widespread support for euro membership.
So the way the debate is framed will determine the result.
But the reality is that if Greece did leave the euro, it would face even greater short-term austerity and pain than it has in the past year or so.
It would face more financial turbulence.
It might swap euro bailout conditions with even more shady ones from Russia or China.
It would regain some of its monetary sovereignty, but in exchange for this it would suffer a fair amount of pain.
There are no easy answers here, which is why what looks like a simple yes/no question is far more complex and unpredictable than it seems.

Manuel,

If you understand what you posted above would you please post a brief synopsis!

I can understand that Greece was fed up with austerity. Their reaction was to elect a far left government that lied when it said it could fix things. Those lies have come home to roost and the country is in worse shape than it was before the election. The previous government was applying austerity, but the economy was improving and by now things would have got a lot better. The French did the same thing and now Hollander is the most unpopular leader ever. We are lucky that our electorate was not so stupid.

Greece now wants a referendum on the latest offer. It's a bit late. The time was weeks ago. I think the lending group was right a month ago when they said they needed to talk to adults.

the fault also lies with ECB and IMF for such irresponsible lending over the years

as it now stands, greece cannot possibly repay its debt over any timescale

==============

fred - i think a brief synopsis would be, "f'ed if i can work out what will happen next"

the biggest fear is surely along the lines that russia will buy into greece in exchange for a naval base in the med, or something along those lines

to me, the sensible back down would be for IMF to write-off a huge swathe of debt as it's done elsewhere in the past, in exchange for (inter alia) the greek retirement age being raised to 65

Sense at last!

it will only be sense if something constructive is actually done or even offered
leaving aside tsipras's political leanings, and as i have said, there is no way on this earth that greece can ever repay its debts
however, it is equally clear that greece simply cannot afford such a ludicrously early pensionable age nor any of the other utopian ideas to which tsipras has committed himself so absolutely

Cyners,

Your post above is incorrect. Countries generally raise funds through the bond markets and the issuance of treasury bills. They just issue new coupons to cover redemptions as and when they fall due, thereby rolling over their debt.

The problem for Greece (and others) came a few years ago when they were unable to rollover their bonds and bills. Lenders got nervous and lost their appetite for risk at a time when they had to rebuild their own balance sheets.

It was then that a troika of the ECB, IMF and lenders put together a bailout package. The money they released was conditional upon Greece (and others) implementing austerity measures. Portugal and Ireland implemented their measures and are now safe - Greece have had several years, and they've failed to do anything of any serious note to cut expenditure within that time. This situation is entirely of their own making, it's nothing to do with irresponsible ECB and IMF lending, because they only started lending Greece money as part of the bailout.

happy to be corrected hils, but now what?

as at today's situation, do you think tsipras wrong to tell ECB/IMF to stuff themselves?
all very well hiking VAT and all sorts of other measures that will hit the ordinary working people and it may sound grand to say that the wealthy be be clobbered

however, there aren't that many "wealthy" and the shipping magnates and similar will have shifted their cash and assets already or have them suitably protected

Saturday's PBOC interest rate cut is probably more significant to the financial markets than a potential Grexit, Cyners.

Greece is a small country with some nice beaches. China has a population of 1.3bn and is a massive consumer of energy and user of minerals.

Greece's problem is more their spending than their income.

hils - on a global view you're no doubt correct, but for european markets, the short term outlook must surely be pretty bleak and no doubt usa will reflect this to a considerable degree

what political consequences a collapsed greece might bring in its wake is also uncomfortable - eg russian hegemonic(?) ambitions

Cyners,

Many brokers will move to 'close only' for the Asian session. Any moves before London opens will be on low volume. You won't get the true picture until after London dealers have been at their desk for an hour or so. There's also an old adage in the markets that "the Asians are always wrong".

There is some discussion of whether Monday and onwards for a few days could be a Bank Holiday in Greece. There are large numbers of ATMs now empty.

The IMF and the Euro group have said today that the deal being voted on at the referendum is no longer available.

Greece has said that there may be capital controls from tomorrow.

"This situation is entirely of their own making, it's nothing to do with irresponsible ECB and IMF lending,"


Who do you mean "their own making"?

The dumb waiter who serves you your beer and tapas or the maid who clears up after you.

But, just perhaps, it was some of the wheeler dealers and bankers who have now absconded to other tax dodging communities, hoping to repeat themselves.

UMMMMH.

The conditions of the loans initially set up and accepted by the "Right winged austerity government" seems to me to bear some responsibility.

Gave them a chance to transfer their "goodies" elsewhere".

The referendum hasn't been printed yet!

Mind a Greek island protected by the Russian Navy must have some attraction to a few oligarchs.

Perhaps, a holiday home for Putin!

fred takes his totally predictable stance

hilary is actually correct, though i accept it was not the "fault" of the ordinary chap in the street ...... the gov't of the time was totally irresponsible (even more profligate than the last labour gov't) for not facing up to the reality that you can't just keep spending and not have the consequences eventually coming home to roost

ECB/IMF were also culpable (in my eyes) fornot forcing the issue when they started ladling out further mountains of cheap dosh without imposing tough restrictions from the off