ellio
- 15 May 2006 09:10
The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.
If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.
hewittalan6
- 15 Mar 2007 07:42
- 613 of 1564
No idea where the markets in general are going, guys, but I do know the bearish sentiment in the sub prime lending market is at least badly overdone and at worst totally unfounded.
It is based on the thought that delinquancy rates are going up and the lenders own credit rating with S&P or suchlike will be badly hit.
The truth is that two of the biggest sub prime lenders have performed reviews on their sub prime borrowers and found (to their own suprise) that delinquancy is lower than anticipated by a quite large degree and have announced that next week, they will be reducing their loadings on base rate / LIBOR to increase applications.
The two are the sub prime intermediary arm of General Motors and the sub prime intermediary arm of Merril Lynch. ML have also, interestingly, reduced their fixed rates as they view the UK interest rate as benign and less likely now to increase.
With the markets as they are, logic means nothing, but it does seem the worries in this arena are unfounded.
Alan
Strawbs
- 15 Mar 2007 08:17
- 614 of 1564
Possibly a little overdone. I think a larger worry is that lending will now dry up and so flatten an already depressed housing market. That will have a knock on effect in construction and will probably impact consumer spending too.
Strawbs.
cynic
- 15 Mar 2007 08:51
- 615 of 1564
Barclays clearly does not like this sub-prime market and has called in its loan to Firsty Century ....... US housing starts are flat as a pancake ..... construction industry new jobs are at their lowest for 15 years ....... Strong bull markets will regularly overlook this sort of grim statistic, but the extreme volatility we are seeing suggests to me that over the next few months, down is still much more likely than up.
hewittalan6
- 15 Mar 2007 09:11
- 616 of 1564
Barclays never did. They are something of an odd ball in this market in that they only have direct lending and do not use any other form of introducing / marketing, and they usually didn't bother securitising most of their debt. I would not regard them as a touchstone.
I have no idea what the US market may be like, but I do know that large US lenders are seeking a quick and easy way into the UK market, as they view this as much less risky.
A well known US company is currently seeking to buy UK sub prime lenders, including a very "famous face" one you see on TV all the time. They have confidence in this market.
cynic
- 15 Mar 2007 09:18
- 617 of 1564
I'm wrong? .... I don't think so!! ..... Telegraph headline today ..... "Barclays has demanded the immediate repayment of about $900m of mortgage loans from New Century Financial, America's second largest sub-prime lender"
hewittalan6
- 15 Mar 2007 09:27
- 618 of 1564
Never said you were wrong.
Read the post again, get off your high horse.
I said I had no idea of the US market.
I said Barclays were an oddball that never did like sub prime lending.
I said they often didn't securitise their debt.
I said I would not regard them as a touchstone.
I NEVER said you were wrong.
The headline refers to Barclays lending money to a business that lends money to sub prime borrowers. Barclays do not care for US sub prime market. So what??
Good grief, man, can you never accept that anyone may have a differing opinion to you??
cynic
- 15 Mar 2007 09:35
- 619 of 1564
likewise you .... keep buying those SEO ... strongly touted as a company with unbelievable prospects!!!
hewittalan6
- 15 Mar 2007 09:40
- 620 of 1564
Obvious to anyone that my post never in any way criticised you or your opinion.
You, however are insecure enough to feel the need to criticise anyone who has a different opinion.
If you cannot rise above childish jibes and insults you expose yourself for what you are.
SEO is not the subject of this thread, though you choose to mention it as (possibly) an error in my investments. I didn't realise you never got a single thing wrong.
I note howeverthat you do not mention other threads I have started or contribute to, such as BBC, HYC, CTG that have performed remarkably well.
I wonder why that is.
cynic
- 15 Mar 2007 09:54
- 621 of 1564
can't be bothered with handbags at dawn ..... have never heard of BBC or CTG .... HYC i look at occasionally as it is a damn good company though have yet to dabble there
partridge
- 15 Mar 2007 09:59
- 622 of 1564
Calm down boys - life is too short and your blood pressure important. Recently suffered 3 funerals, deceased aged 16 (car crash), 48 (skiing accident) and 85 (old age).As a neutral, enjoy reading posts from both of you - cynic well named, but brings more realism than most, Alan has more wit in his little finger than most.Would be interested in response from either about the BARC post I made on 20th Feb!
neil777
- 15 Mar 2007 10:20
- 623 of 1564
This thread's more volatile than the markets!
And just as much fun.
hewittalan6
- 15 Mar 2007 10:24
- 624 of 1564
Oh no it isn't
hewittalan6
- 15 Mar 2007 10:24
- 625 of 1564
Oh yes it is
neil777
- 15 Mar 2007 10:28
- 626 of 1564
He's behind you!!!!!
cynic
- 15 Mar 2007 12:52
- 627 of 1564
are we in for another "whore's drawers" day? ...... Dow indications, having previously shown +40/50 are now slightly negative.
BFC .... normal service has now been resumed and sp is tracking gently south.
Strawbs
- 15 Mar 2007 13:24
- 628 of 1564
Could well see another test of Dow 12000.
Strawbs
cynic
- 15 Mar 2007 13:26
- 629 of 1564
if it does, then the big scary Q will be whether or not it will just test or plunge straight through and keep heading south as it threatened to do yesterday
Strawbs
- 15 Mar 2007 13:29
- 630 of 1564
Assuming no other external factors I think it'll probably bounce on technical buying. Of course at some point the technical buyers will be out of money, so each drop is erroding support, and without a sustained move up, a plunge through is likely at some point.
In my opinion....
Strawbs.
cynic
- 15 Mar 2007 13:33
- 631 of 1564
diff to call ... am/was half tempted to take at least some profits at 12000 or thereabouts, but didn't yesterday and not sure of my mood today!
Strawbs
- 15 Mar 2007 13:43
- 632 of 1564
Hmmm. If it drops again, I'd look to see what Dollar/Yen is doing. If it's around 116 and falling then I'd probably wait before taking profits, as the markets seem to be tracking dollar/yen closely. It's bounced from around 115.5 a few times, so that might be a good indicator for taking profits from a short.
In my opinion........
Strawbs.