Interesting little company. Did a series of asset swops to leave them with half of the 4th largest Nickel deposit in the world.
The deposit itself is in the Philippines has been known about for 30 years but due to low prices and lack of demand in the Far East it was never exploited. With the explosion in demand from India and China the nickel price has climbed from $2 to $6.50 but oddly enough is still considered low.
The final approval stage for exploitation is just about to be approved and extraction will begin. The company already has one contract with a Japanese smelter and is in discussions with smelters in a series of countries.
Nothing clever about the operation, as the ore is of sufficiently high grade, they dig it up and ship it out. Infrastrucure is already in place for operation.
TMC is currently priced at 18m, the initial Japanese contract is worth 4m and each additional contract will hopefully be at this level or greater.
Final approval turns the company into a producer and each additional contract simply increases their size.
The management is tight with cash and has some good quality mining skills onboard.
The Philippine government is fast tracking the final approval and the company says it expects it shortly.
One to hold for approval and through the series of RNS's as more contracts are won. Company should be worth 50m in 6 months and 100m in 12-18 months.
Buy it, ignore it, just pointing this one out.

To stifle trading, to help mm's frighten out hot money leaving more of the pie for themselves and their more valued customers, the institutions. If everyone ignores their shinanigans, and continues to hold the price will eventually rise. You will notice that as they get desperate for stock the spread narrows to a couple of pence. As soon as they have filled any orders on their books at that time, the spread then opens very quickly.

oilyrag

You seem to have a thing about MMs. The current spread is 4.6%, not unusual for an AIM stock. Volumes are low and the MMs are there to make a profit. Seemingly everytime the spread widens or the SP falls it's those pesky MM's fault. Treeshakes do happen but not as much as PIs would like to believe, generally it's market forces at work. Desperate for stock? When there is interest and buying momentum the MMs are competing amongst themselves and naturally try to attain pole position, hence the spread closes and the SP rises, when interest wanes the spread opens once more, no conspiracy, again market forces at play.

pth

ellio, heres a go at the maths, all approximates and as halifax points out TMC havn't declared what rate they are getting from the pig iron trade.

Each shipment of 50,000 wet tonnes equals 37,500 dry tonnes.
37,000 dry tonnes times 1.8% nickel equals 675 tonnes nickel.
675 tonnes times 27,000 equals 18,225,000 gross per shipment before discounted rate.
18,225,000 times approx 15% equals 2,733,750 actual payment per shipment.
Multiply this by 56.1% TMC, and again by 50% MPSA, and by 50% for approx production costs. This equals 383,408 cash per shipment.
900,000 tonnes divided by 50,000 tonnes equals 18 shipments this year, equals 18 times 383,408 which is 6,901,344 profit this year.
For 2008 target of 3,000,000 tonnes multiply by 3.33 times as much as 2007 figs, equals 23,004,480 approx.
2009 estimates for 12million tonnes would multiply this by 4 equalling 92,017,920 which is almost the current market cap.

These are only estimates made using logic and what little info we have, but IMHO I feel that this is the ball park earnings, before vat leaching, or any other value enhancing methods are used.

I would be intrested in any comments that any one else may wish to add, or confimation that this is the right area for valuations.

For example SCAP have just moved up on the Bid from 415 to 418, looks like they need some stock, so the spread closes. If the other MMs are interested they will move up also.

pth

pth, thanks for the insight but I am well aware of how the market works. I was just giving ellio who asked the question (20p spread why?) an answer. With respect I have held this stock for over 2 years now and have analysed it every which way and to be fair the 20p spreads have only just started in the last week or so. With reguard to treeshakes, this stock has been one long shake after another. The only reason that the market dosn't let it go is because they want it all, and by hook or by crook they'll do their damdest to get it.

Oily, with equal repsect, IMHO your answer to ellio is flawed, mainly becuae it is predicated upon your apparent paranoia with with the manner in which MMs conduct their business. Calls of FSA investigations are OTT, as is the assumption that the SP is being held back to allow institutions onboard, quite misleading in fact, unless of course you know that for certain.

BTW, I have held TMC since it was Toledo Copper and probably long before most if not all on this thread had even heard of the company. In those days it was 4p!!

pth

pth many PI,s bought these shares when they were 2p prior to the 50-1 consolidation. I don't think MM,s deserve defending as I observe they regularly report trades late,and change the spread in order to show purchases as sales and vice versa thus trying to deceive investors.TMC shares are not by far alone in this respect. I agree with oilyrag that MM,s have regularly manipulated the sp to suit their order books. The proof of the pudding etc will occur after the next positive newsflow when demand cannot be held back.

Halifax, personally I think the trades table is about as much use as a chocolate fireguard. LSE rules permit late reporting of certain sized trades and in any case the MAM software decides whether a trade is a buy or sell, not the MMs. Anyone basing investment decisions on that information alone is treading on thin ice.

pth

pth please state the LSE definition of certain sized trades. MAM software decides nothing it merely puts trades in chronological order.

Halifax,

There is quite a variety of trades for which reporting can be delayed:

I cannot recall TMC's NMS (will tell you tomorrow) but for a straightforward O trade below 2000 the MMs can delay reporting by 120 minutes; if above 2000, by 60 minutes. For larger trades there is even more latitude. You will have to access the LSE website for further details.

You are wrong re MAM software: if for instance the spread at the time for a stock is 400p - 420p when the trade is reported and it had traded at 400p the software will report it as a sell. It may be that this particular trade took place 50 mins earlier (for instance when the spread was 380p - 400p), which in fact meant it was a Buy. The time stamp will give you a clue. The reporting system for trades is entirely to protect the MM, giving them a signficant advantage over the PI.

pth

pth, The point is that they can delay reporting, they don't have to. They always do, ask yourself why, to try to confuse the PI's.

oily

They can delay reporting, ostensibly to protect themselves, the point is that it is allowable under LSE rules for certain sized trades. Wouldn't you do the same if in their position, or would you happily lose money? They are there to make a market and therefore money, not lose it. Don't tell me you wouldn't do the same thing. It happens, accept it.

pth

Oh I accept it all right, I don't have a choice. If you don't think TMC's price hasn't been manipulated since MPSA and JORC compliance reports were released, how much do you think the SP should be right now.

Oily

If the market thought that the SP should be higher it would be. Why would the MMs not want the SP to rise, if there is buying interest and volume they make money. If they don't have stock, they push the bid up until sellers are tempted, everyone has their price afterall. You seem to have difficulty in accepting that the SP has settled where it has and rather blame the MMs for that fact rather than accepting that the valuation is currently a fair one. So to answer your question, market forces dictate that the SP is right where it should be.

pth

Sorry pth, I disagree, as in your own summition just now you state, correctly, that buying intrest and volume make money. When the spread is closed then there is plenty of that going on in this stock. Because they have opened the spread, they are successfully putting buyers off, so therefore are directly affecting the growth in SP, by stiffling trade. The question remains that if there is plenty of potential in the growth in SP of TMC, then why aren't these opportunities being exploited to make an absolute fortune for the MM's, and ourselves. I think that you will find the answer to be pretty much the case that I have been stating all along.

24,000 shares sold and no movement in SP tells me that they want shares today, as they have an order to fill. What does anyone else think.

I think that the MMs opened at 420-430 prior to 0800; 24,000 shares were sold and the MM on the Offer (think it was SCAP) dropped the offer as a result of the sells. Can't see any manipulation there. As a result of the intial sells and the understandable drop in the Bid / Offer, other PIs have decided to sell prompting a further fall. Pretty straightforward really.

pth

Agreed, but previously they have moved the price 10p on sales of a 2,000 shares. They have opened spread slightly to 13p.

What is confusing me is why you would pay 4p per share for an ailing flooded copper mine with no real future, when the average price at that time was 2p. Now that that investment, luckily for you has some real value added to it, you can't see it.

When you say 'they', I wonder what you mean. MMs operate in competition. Currently EVO & TEAM are on the bid at 405p, SCAP back on the Offer at 418p, which merely reflects the SP at which the MMs are willing to deal. The spread is a direct result of the SPs at which individual MMs have set their trading strategy.

pth