markymar
- 03 Dec 2003 11:36
hlyeo98
- 04 Apr 2011 11:28
- 6159 of 6492
More funding means sp will drop.
hlyeo98
- 04 Apr 2011 14:49
- 6161 of 6492
So far the 5 wells drilled had come to nought and previous misleading info by DES has certainly put a nail in its own coffin. Shareholders will certainly remember that.
ptholden
- 04 Apr 2011 18:18
- 6162 of 6492
Shareholders and / or potential investors will soon forget the past if Ninky comes up trumps.
I have never believed for one moment Sea Lion is the only resevoir in the NFB and if they (DES/RKH etc) keep drilling they will find more oil, it's just a matter of time, luck and good pre-drill analysis. Someone posted a while ago, can't remember if was on this thread, that the North Sea drilling campaign kicked off with a raft of dusters and look what eventually happened there!
What is clear is that if Ninky fails, DES SP is going to drop at least 50%, probably more, due to the inevitable future funding dilution. From a pure punt perspective the downside is reasonably limited, whilst the upside is considerable. Depends on your risk appetite whether to gamble or not, but 25% COS is not bad odds.
cynic
- 04 Apr 2011 19:16
- 6163 of 6492
if you're taking a punt, then definitely only stake as much as you can afford to lose, assuming it dumps 75% on yet another duster ...... that said, i agree with peter that it is almost inconceivable that sealion is the only live patch, but why should ninky be another?
ptholden
- 04 Apr 2011 19:25
- 6164 of 6492
Indeed Ricardo why should it, but by the same token why should it not?
I imagine DES have chosen this drill very, very carefully, if it fails they know they are going back to the market for more funds and huge dilution for existing shareholders (including themselves). Whilst none of that improves the COS, this is their best bet.
I agree with your punt sentiment, anyone buying now must size their position on the basis of how much they could lose and 75% isn't a bad estimate, tho I think after the intital rush for the door, 60%-65% is perhaps more likely.
cynic
- 04 Apr 2011 19:29
- 6165 of 6492
DES didn't intentional pick duds previously either, he said with unusual sourness
required field
- 04 Apr 2011 21:26
- 6166 of 6492
Not in......so risky and got my fingers burnt when they said they had found a good oil discovery only it to be a complete dud......a 100% gamble to be in this because 10p is the next stop if it's a duster !.
kimoldfield
- 04 Apr 2011 22:11
- 6167 of 6492
My fingers are still bandaged from the majority of the FKI scene. RKH has moved the scene a little away from speculative now, though there is still a high element of risk. If the FKI's are going to be in the megga bucks bracket then I think it is essential that DES find something that they recognise as oil rather than water! But wtfdik?!
hlyeo98
- 05 Apr 2011 08:04
- 6168 of 6492
Well, for all I know, DES can't differentiate oil from water.
cynic
- 05 Apr 2011 08:09
- 6169 of 6492
you Unbeliever you ..... it's the realisation of the reverse miracle
Sequestor
- 12 Apr 2011 14:06
- 6172 of 6492
too many need to cash in to allow it to stick up.
Sequestor
- 12 Apr 2011 15:28
- 6174 of 6492
hope so.
ptholden
- 12 Apr 2011 22:27
- 6175 of 6492
Maybe there is truth in the old adage of buying unloved stocks (or something along those lines). Interesting day, no doubt helped by shorters scrambling for the exit. Rumours prevail once again, wonder if this time they are right?
cynic
- 13 Apr 2011 06:26
- 6177 of 6492
i certainly find it interesting that while DES is rising, RKH is falling, surely implying that it's much the same band of PIs merely switching from one to the other ..... certainly if DES finally finds something at ninky (i still have very strong doubts) sp will boom by a much larger % than RKH, but RKH remains (for me) much the safer punt