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Chaco Resources(CHP)- new oil play (CHP)     

grevis2 - 21 Oct 2004 12:55


LONDON (AFX) - Chaco Resources PLC said it is proposing the reverse takeover
of two Paraguayan companies -- Amerisur SA and Bohemia SA -- from Candey SA and
Daniel Sztern in exchange for 27,322,404 new ordinary shares in the company.
It also plans to raise up to 750,000 stg before expenses in a placing of
36,585,365 new ordinary shares.
The company's shares were suspended on Sept 3 and it said it expects this to
be lifted today. It has called an EGM for Nov 15 to approve the acquisition and
placing plans.
Amerisur holds two oil and gas prospecting permits in Paraguay and is the
registered applicant for exploration and exploitation concession contracts over
the same permit areas. Bohemia holds registered applications for an oil and gas
prospecting permit in Paraguay and for an exploration and exploitation
concession contract over the same area.
The exploration areas covered by these three applications comprise a total of
approximately 48,000 square kilometres of the Curypayty and Parana Basins.
Chaco said these basins extend respectively into Bolivia and Brazil, where
commercial oil and gas production has been established for many years from
similar geological sections.


Sharesure - 13 Oct 2005 10:06 - 622 of 2227

CC, possibly, as I cannot see why else this stock doesn't move up sharply. Maybe it takes the weekend press to involve more investors. The only consolation is the knowledge that in the end value always get reflected in a share price; in my experience if a stock stays undervalued too long it gets taken over.
Stewart, I don't think you are missing anything on this one; it's just one of those times when the market has to catch up. Since there are at least 3 pieces of impending news, 2 in Colombia and 1 in Paraguay, there is likely to be plenty of opportunity to jolt the sp into life. If you take the view that a 50p sp will follow getting Alea oil out to the well head in say 6-8 months, I reckon it's going to be easy to just sit on your shares for that, knowing that other favourable events may happen in that time frame.

dibbles - 13 Oct 2005 10:49 - 623 of 2227

Also, it is a very red day today......

bhunt1910 - 13 Oct 2005 11:47 - 624 of 2227

.......except for seo !!!

Baza

ddoc2 - 13 Oct 2005 13:42 - 625 of 2227

as a general comparison, accepted all the other variables, (incl. poss total reserves, amount of exploration activity, costs of delivery to land and safety factors in areas concerned, plus many more)


sh.p, Mkt cap, bopd, ratio of Mkt cap/bopd
CHP 6.9p, 27m, 533 (est), 20, (bigger the better)

EEN 166, 80, 4300, 53,

DNX 820, 600, 18,800, 31,


accept that this is a generalisation so would value thoughts

TANKER - 13 Oct 2005 14:35 - 626 of 2227

the only thing holding this back is the state of the market.

stockdog - 13 Oct 2005 20:23 - 627 of 2227

no, Tanker, you're quite wrong - the only thing keeping the price low is the low price that anyone's prepared to pay for it - nothing to do with the market, silly. lol!

Have you tried brain surgery, or are you more drawn towards rocket science. Let me know if you try either - so I can avoid!

sd

camiladasi - 13 Oct 2005 23:37 - 628 of 2227

I believe that the major uncertainty still hanging over this share is the placement volume and price. The Repsol deal cannot go through without raising funds via placement and the potential dilution could be UP TO 30% of shares (roughly equal to a 25% reduction in SP). I believe the lack of placement news is holding back SP progress.

The SP calculations on this thread tend to use some level of pre-placement volume of shares but still assume the Repsol deal is in place. I don't think that is realistic.

Once the placement news is released and the impact known/understood/absorbed, then the SP on this share can move onwwards to a true underpinned valuation- the uncertainties will be reduced dramatically. All the potential (and probable) positive news can then have a full effect.

As usual all the above IMHO. WDIK, PDYOR.

camlad

bodeng - 14 Oct 2005 10:00 - 629 of 2227

Does the placement have to be announced by a certain date?

Sharesure - 14 Oct 2005 12:03 - 630 of 2227

I have always understood the placing proceeds to be required for the development of Alea and any other TEA areas that are gained. If that is the case, and CHP is near to being able to announce the outcome of deals 2 & 3, it might be in all our interests for the company to delay finalising the placement, particularly if they were suddenly to be in a position to announce up to 110m barrels more of recoverable oil.

cleverclogs - 14 Oct 2005 13:04 - 631 of 2227

ss,

110mbo!!! About 4 share at wellhead!?!

110 x $35 divided by 1.75 at 500m shares = 4.40

I appreciate this is a very simplistic view but if i'm half right then.......

cc.

Sharesure - 14 Oct 2005 13:23 - 632 of 2227

CC, but they did say that they had competition for those two deals. But if they do win, yes, you are right, what a prospect!

Sharesure - 14 Oct 2005 13:55 - 633 of 2227

CC, Also need to factor in that CHP get 55% of those two potential deals (so you were sort of half right!), the other 45% goes to their local Colombian trio; but it's still excellent.... and then there is Paraguay. One day soon in a better market this will get the recognition it deserves.

camiladasi - 14 Oct 2005 14:09 - 634 of 2227

Bodeng,

at the EGM and again at the AGM, the Board were given the authority to issue up to 125M new shares for placement. The time-limit on that authorisation is 15 months.

However, of course, the company has to comply in terms of reporting significant events under stock exchange rules. Therefore it is unlikely that the share placement has yet been finalised.

I agree with SS that it is in the company's interests to announce this (dilution news) at the same time as a balancing announcement of good (value increasing) news.

As usual, we'll just have to wait and see.

WDIK, PDYOR.

camlad

camiladasi - 14 Oct 2005 14:22 - 635 of 2227

SS, when you talk about CHP getting 55% of the potential new Colombian deals, could you clarify please that at the AGM was "CHP wi have 55%" or that "the JV (including CHP) will have 55%".

I'm trying to understand whether, the CHP JV is going in with another partner in the same way as CHP went in with Repsol on deal 1?

TX,

camlad

Sharesure - 14 Oct 2005 14:30 - 636 of 2227

Camlad, I don't know the answer to that. I suspect that the Colombian trio get 45% of whatever is due to CHP. After all it will be in the interests of both the trio and CHP to do whatever is necessary to move a deal from exploration to development. This info is likely to be published at some time soon when the news on further deals is announced. Whatever the outcome the impact on CHP's sp should be dramatic - although on current showing that may look a far fetched expectation.

aimtrader - 15 Oct 2005 22:53 - 637 of 2227

the chart looks weak!!!

i reckon bad news or a dilution coming, just a guess on my part

stewart3250 - 16 Oct 2005 10:11 - 638 of 2227

aimtrader

Rather than just post one line of ill thought out useless information on the board why don't you do some research to support your statement. I am not even going to comment on your post because clearly you know nothing about Chaco.

I see you posted on 5 consecutive boards last night after 10.00pm did you get back from the pub early last night, no wonder you did because if your chat up lines were as interesting as your post you need not have gone out.

cleverclogs - 16 Oct 2005 11:52 - 639 of 2227

Aimtrader,

You worked out from the charts that there may be a dilution coming?

Brilliant piece of work!!

cc

Sharesure - 16 Oct 2005 15:55 - 640 of 2227

Aimtrader, everyone knows CHP are going to have to issue more shares to get Alea going. The key question is at what level are those shares to be issued. There are one or two brokers who sufficiently rate what CHP has got itself into as grounds for the placing to be at a premium. In support of that, when I asked to be included in the placing for another chunk of stock it was suggested that I would be better off buying that line of stock in the market. We'll see.

ddoc2 - 16 Oct 2005 21:32 - 641 of 2227

ss/ MPH- as an interested observer, having been in and out of CHP since 2p, I am interested in your thoughts regarding CHP's rating compared to EEN and, moreso DNX, now in full production though no more rated than CHP re: Mkt cap/ bopd. ref post 625
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