Thought I'd start a new thread as this is going to be a major talking point this year...have not made up my mind yet...(unlike bucksfizz)....but thinking of voting for an exit as Europe is not doing Britain any good at all it seems....

The EU governments are going at lengths to try to prove to everybody how much better it is to be in rather than out, .....they must be worried that they are not going to be able to achieve this, which could jeopardize supposedly the single market.....in fact they need Britain more than we need them.....they will be thinking : how can we avoid the situation where in a few months/years time some countries across the water will be looking at each other thinking about their own euro--exit....

I think it is more likely that Europe feels sorry for a recalcitrant child who has lost its way.

Half the child wanting to leave home and the other half confused by its own stupidity.

65 million facing up to 450 million.

I wonder what the odds are.

.

Jeremy Corbyn says he will order Labour MPs to vote in favour of triggering article 50 - Politics live



https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jan/19/breixt-talks-wil-get-very-nasty-says-former-british-ambassador-to-eu-politics-live

Perhaps, he is trying to help Maybe drown herself.

Pathetic as ever .

Go back to sleep Fred .

Stop encouraging him you 2.
2517

Do you mean Dumbo and the zoo keeper?

As stated on QT last night the EU single market is only a free trade market for those in it and a protectionism Union for those outside.

I'd rather be out and trading freely with the rest of the world as would Mrs May and that's what the EU is worried about.

The EU is nearly finished anyway , if Geert Wilders and Marine La Pen win Holland and France (which they have a great chance) it's all over ,just a matter of time.
That would be quite spiffing.

I'm looking forward to Gert Wilders getting majority in Dutch elections which
will indicate the sensible people have voted for common sense policies and a
return to patriotism and national pride, unlike the liberal bleeding heart socialist
lefties that have ruled the west to its detriment and destruction over the last 25+
years.

I would like the same to sweep France with the election of Marine Le'Penn and
the F.N, but that will be more tricky because the establishment usually construct
an agreement between the FAR left and center right, but with the center right
candidate having draconian anti-socialist policies that could mean the F.N
picking up votes from the left..

Agreed grannyboy...
Euroland was already doomed IMHO, "long-term" - because of not so recent "Expansion" whereby EU admitted countries that are not "matched" ( economically, let alone Culturally).
The effect of this, with Greece, Italy, Portugal, etc. hoping their Bowls will be filled.... is that there are too few net-providers. Any one of them "Could" leave - so, why don't the likes of ( Say) Germany, France do just that? -and- EU will be so poor the Burghers of Brusselles will have to eat burgers.
That UK has left this disaster ( Brexit intention, so far!),----other Countries may wonder if they'll have to increase their share . . . ?

The only solution is to Tax UK goods going into EU, to make up the shortfall . . . this may damage our EU-Exports, but it will be EU citizens that will be paying these Taxes.... in effect the "Better-off" will be subsidising the poor-countries that EU should have ditched (Economically). Although I understood the reason for expansion was to strengthen the European Political boundaries.

Furthermore, I'm not convinced that US-welcome for a quickie Trade-Deal will be in our interests - perhaps our Negotiators should gain some experience dealing with a half-dozen small countries, where our £ Export-values are modest. Only then, dare attempt President Trump.
The attraction ( for a quick-deal), is that Trump can stick it to EU, but in doing-so we could lose out . . . . look at (DYOR) BAE having to reduce costs on an existing military Contract... America already doesn't pay all its dues ( Amazon, Facebook, I hear ); so why wouldn't we expect any quickie Trade Deal to be particularly attractive to UK...?
Just as America needs to return Mfr to US soil, so does it need to sort-out Taxing Big Corporations, so they pay-tax for the earnings in any country they operate. This may mean any UK-US trade-deal will be drawn out . . . and UK has only one opportunity to achieve this, is my belief.
As a QPP - we'd have to eliminate the British "Offshore" tax-dodging arrangement enjoyed by the few. Ultimately this might reach Zurich.... Oh dear!


QPP Quid per Pro

6228/6229 - i don't think there has ever been much doubt that triggering article 50 will go through parliament very easily
the fun and games will start thereafter

Merkel wants to start being nice to Trump otherwise it ain't just Brexit she's going to have to worry about.

You take the long list of countries to negotiate trading terms with.......I bet most of them will be pretty straightforward, if not time consuming, but the most difficult one will be ....... : yep you named it : the Euro bunch !......even the USA and China will be simpler...does the UK negotiate with each country or the whole group ?...... best to have a most agreements set up and running before clicking the dreaded (it seems) article 50......by the way what's article 49 and 51 ?.....are they worth ducking and diving for as well ? .....

Personally I'd sneek out without all this fuss , mind you as soon as our big fat cheque doesn't arrive one day they'll notice .

You asked for it RF:

Article 49
Any European State which respects the values referred to in Article 2 and is committed to promoting them may apply to become a member of the Union. The European Parliament and national Parliaments shall be notified of this application. The applicant State shall address its application to the Council, which shall act unanimously after consulting the Commission and after receiving the assent of the European Parliament, which shall act by an absolute majority of its component members. The conditions of admission and the adjustments to the Treaties on which the Union is founded, which such admission entails, shall be the subject of an agreement between the Member States and the applicant State. This agreement shall be submitted for ratification by all the contracting States in accordance with their respective constitutional requirements. The conditions of eligibility agreed upon by the European Council shall be taken into account.
Article 51
The provisions of this Chapter shall not apply, so far as any given Member State is concerned, to activities which in that State are connected, even occasionally, with the exercise of official authority.
The European Parliament and the Council, acting in accordance with the ordinary legislative procedure, may rule that the provisions of this Chapter shall not apply to certain activities.

Don't ask me about Article 2 since nobody actually adheres to it.

Because of 'signed up for agreements', won't we owe the EU about £60 billion when we leave ?

And what about its repayment? Can we string it out?

I suspect, but cannot know, that trying to negotiate with Europe will be difficult. The notion that all EU Countries must agree, means ( Like we witnessed in 2016?) that any one can have its papers "lost" , or out of order - and the deal fails. If EU had elected big-wigs then they could take the vote, amongst say five, or six, who represent the different factions - this might mean that you'd see different faces with each provision:- like Cars/machinery -and- Financials ( It will be a long list ).
BUT if we give them our stance first.... we mirror your Tariffs then if we start at zero, that means neither side needs to gather an new recruits of accountants and (financial)border-guards.... which saves time/money for both sides.
IF, however, they want to impose tariffs, then we should reciprocate so the NET-costs balance out . . . this could mean that some exporting EU-countries will become "Victims" -even if they aren't Importers..... MY suggestion avoids this . . .we all trade without tariffs. (Er, perhaps with the proviso "no-dumping")
As others here have concerns about that £60bn..... perhaps we can:- release this "Leaving Geld" in stages, over say 10-years to keep them to their word, whatever happens in the EU . . . which I suspect is in for MIGHTY big changes soon . . . . SO we should get "OUR" agreement in before then.
USA
It will be interesting to see how Mrs May ( UK_PM), is received by USA President Trump.... as he's in fairly hot water for what he's been saying on Twitter..... let's hope he soon changes into a Statesman and doesn't try to pull the wool over MrsM's eyes . . . . you will recall she did say: No Deal is better than a Bad Deal - so I'm marginally hopeful we shall get a deal with USA dated for the day after BREXIT.

. . . . Interesting times, with so much changing about. . . . .