overgrowth
- 13 May 2005 16:36
Retail Decisions are
market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They
produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally,
though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers
both in the UK and US.
They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be
a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this
"forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout
2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and
Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of
millions of shares in RTD !
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Shares Magazine had
a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is
about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution".
It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.
Here's what Shares
had to say:
"Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing
credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit
and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but
also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in
your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions.
Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime.
Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump
is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities
seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains
concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already
has fantastic experience and technology.
The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that
it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer,
T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner
of Macy's and Bloomingdales.
Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business
in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low
single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."
Retail Decisions have
continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz.
fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices
and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams
from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through.
In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over
their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company
is doing.
The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software
is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success
in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is
being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real
gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.
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Douggie
- 09 Feb 2006 10:17
- 625 of 1009
...Still :-[ ..............!
boxerdog
- 09 Feb 2006 14:01
- 626 of 1009
As a very long term holder (on and off) i feel qualified to state that RTD. as a share is frustrating and amazingly unpredictable.They are currently trading at a 25% discount to the SP.of this time a year ago.During this time they have acheived additional sources of revenue by the way of bolt on additions and, issued a statement forecasting as the previous year profits in excess of expectations.Could it possiblbly be that this year profits are even in excess of excess of expectations and that when the MM. cease shaking that tree, come the day of declaration they might take off.Only my theory of course.
boxerdog
- 09 Feb 2006 14:02
- 627 of 1009
As a very long term holder (on and off) i feel qualified to state that RTD. as a share is frustrating and amazingly unpredictable.They are currently trading at a 25% discount to the SP.of this time a year ago.During this time they have acheived additional sources of revenue by the way of bolt on additions and, issued a statement forecasting as the previous year profits in excess of expectations.Could it possiblbly be that this year profits are even in excess of excess of expectations and that when the MM. cease shaking that tree, come the day of declaration they might take off.Only my theory of course.
boxerdog
- 09 Feb 2006 14:02
- 628 of 1009
As a very long term holder (on and off) i feel qualified to state that RTD. as a share is frustrating and amazingly unpredictable.They are currently trading at a 25% discount to the SP.of this time a year ago.During this time they have acheived additional sources of revenue by the way of bolt on additions and, issued a statement forecasting as the previous year profits in excess of expectations.Could it possiblbly be that this year profits are even in excess of excess of expectations and that when the MM. cease shaking that tree, come the day of declaration they might take off.Only my theory of course.
Fundamentalist
- 09 Feb 2006 15:09
- 629 of 1009
Boxer
Agree fully with the frustrating nature
the danger with that theory is that is what we have all expected from the last 2 years results and hence despite encouraging results they were not as good as many were hoping for.
In addition, whilst adding additional revenue sources they are of a lower margin style than the fraud business and hence are likely to reduce the fair PE ratio the company trades to.
Ultimately until the results are released and are in black and white we are all guessing to a degree, a great deal of this caused by the fact that all the contracts RTD announce never have any value assigned to them so it is difficult to quantify the added value they provide
canary9
- 09 Feb 2006 15:33
- 630 of 1009
This will be a different business going forward as there will be a dramatic change in the revenue line next year. It will have gone from a price to sales of 3 or 4 for 2004 to less than 1 for 2006, which is low for a growth business. Although, the fuel card business may be lower margin , the higher fuel prices will help and, if they are managing to grow the business it will certainly underpin the current share price IMHO. If on top they are making good progress in the CNP market, I can see a re-rating of the shares after the results.
I am therefore a buyer at 1.20 , and would not consider selling before the results at less than 2.00. DYOR
Fred1new
- 09 Feb 2006 16:13
- 631 of 1009
I think one of the problems with this share is that some in the market can remember the SP of 1912p 13/3/2000. and since that date its rollercoaster ride.
Many jump when there has been any improvement. Personally the market always hyped the share, although the board have given fair appraisals.
I have been lucky buying and selling this time, but have quite a large holding (for me) now, which I intend to hold until the results and probably well after.
Douggie
- 10 Feb 2006 16:47
- 632 of 1009
And another RED week ... !!!!!!!!!! :-{{
EVOLUTION
- 12 Feb 2006 21:25
- 633 of 1009
should get a boost tomorrow, given as a buy in scsw again, main write up
pachandl
- 13 Feb 2006 09:29
- 634 of 1009
Looking good this morning - perhaps a new trend will be established this week?
Ray A
- 13 Feb 2006 17:04
- 635 of 1009
Better day, 3rd March for prelims getting closer!
boxerdog
- 14 Feb 2006 13:26
- 636 of 1009
Excellent couple of days,more to come i hope!.Is there any significance in the RNS. released early PM.today,regarding GS.
optomistic
- 14 Feb 2006 14:04
- 637 of 1009
Small reduction in holding.
Douggie
- 14 Feb 2006 15:20
- 638 of 1009
........
Fred1new
- 14 Feb 2006 15:30
- 639 of 1009
Opt, not very optimistic. More to come.
optomistic
- 14 Feb 2006 15:41
- 640 of 1009
Must say I'm surprised at this sudden turn around.
Fundamentalist
- 14 Feb 2006 17:29
- 641 of 1009
Opto
im amazed that you are surprised, the market has been a false one for a while with the price being walked down and now being walked back up to accomodate the followers of various tip sheets which tipped this as a buy at the weekend. Be interesting to see where it goes from here - now approaching resistance at approx 152p - will it break this or will be get another dip (shake) prior to results
boxerdog
- 14 Feb 2006 18:59
- 642 of 1009
Opt,I'm surprised your surprised.I bought in once again last week (monday 1.43p bad timing) as a rise up to results is expected,as is a fall post results.This year i feel will be different due to the obvious diversification in RTD'S business portfolio.I now anticipate a rise in the SP.to results day and hopefully well into 2006.Fingers crossed.
optomistic
- 14 Feb 2006 19:44
- 643 of 1009
Fundy and Boxer, I suppose no one should ever be surprised as to what happens in stock trading. Perhaps as Fundy says as the stock has been walked down it is now being walked back up. Certainly the volume of buys does not appear to be that great as cause this rise over the last two days, although as said times before, what happens in trades on Virt-x is very difficult to account for. As for me I'm remaining cautious on this one, large moves up on lightly traded stocks can be just as fast followed by large moves down. Would like confirmation as to the actual performance of the company at the results even if it means missing the first part of the rise.
regards
opto
pachandl
- 14 Feb 2006 20:09
- 644 of 1009
I am surprised that Fund/Boxer are surprised that Opto is surprised. But perhaps I have been drinking too much this evening. However, I am slightly worried at the low volume - hoping that there is a buyer in the wings or that volume picks up as we approach results day. If neither materialises then we might well oscillate between 140 and 150 for some time to come.