Here's an excellent post that really says it all. Pasted from Ample iii. Hopefully the author, Kenneth Thomson won't mind:-

So the interims have been released and it looks like they failed to live up to a number of peoples high expectations.
Some thought needs to be given as to whether that is Tadpole's fault for not delivering or the individuals for aiming too high.

Time will tell.

The results took us up to the end of March. At that stage expecting a susbstantial contribution from Endeavors was not only unrealistic, but ludicrous.

Our work with Autodesk was just getting underway and we are more likely to see the fruits of that by the end of September/next March, rather than last March. I have my own guess at how many server at $**K per server it will take to manage their trialware distribution for the product range. It will make a significant difference in the next full year and hopefully add even more in the following year.

Like many here, I feel our recent 100k deal with MS is based on paying so much per download and that is an initial payment to be followed by more. In fact putting my cards on the table I truly believe that, just like Autodesk, once MS starting using AppX they will realise its potential and start to use it in othe rares.

EDS are one of the biggest seller of IT solutions in the world and they are going to reselll AppX. Any number of successes are possible..............and none is a possibility..........but they have tested the software and agreed to resell it for a reason.

Capella and MCI have a vision of re-positioning themseleves as a hugely profitable seller of on demand sevices. They have chosen AppX as their delivery system of choice internally and externally. Just how big could the revenue streams from that source prove to be. Other telcos, hardware and software firms share the same vision.

On the Endtech Website I believe you will find an indication that Endeavors is a participant in IBMs Partnerworld to help develop on-demand applications, a project they are investing a billion dollars on developing this year. We also have an Intel insight into our work with Autodesk, suggesting they are well aware of AppX capabilities.


I also take comfort in the fact that all these are links in the public realm. My guess is there will be more companies interested in AppX than I currently am aware of.

To be honest I was disappointed that Cartesia didnt manage to make a larger positive contribution to the bottom line in the H1. But the interims do suggest that the second half will be better for Cartesia.

There can be no doubt that Endeavors will make a contribution to turnover in the second half and in my opinion next year the sales of AppX will start to increase rapidly.

In the meantime Tadpole had 3.8 million pounds in the bank at the end of March and so the need for a cash call does not exist at this time and perhaps never will.

Time will tell............ and I will hold on to my holding until at least September /October and if I dont like what I have seen by then, believe me when I say I will sell. However I honestly believe it wont come to that. To sell out now and let other investors pick up shares on the cheap would haunt me in the future.

You need to think hard and make your own mind up, make your own decision and live with it. Dont let the disillusioned or rampers make your mind up for you. Blaming the market makers, the Board, the bb, Patcom ,itkb, a mistake in the rns or the collapse of civilisation as we know it are not options. We do the buying or selling. Think it out for yourself and stick with your decison because there are few you can trust when it comes to money and integrity.

I am sticking with it and holding for now whether the shareprice takes a heavy beating or not.

DYOR

Ken Thompson

"It's a shame Tadpole never really learn to manage peoples expectations"..

its not the companies fault. after all they ARE NOT the ones starting rumours of rumours ;-)

Morning all - 3.7m in the bank

looks like the MCI technology payment wasn;t received until H2

Highride - 30 Jun'04 - 10:59 - 626 of 627 (Filtered)



rjs - 30 Jun'04 - 11:07 - 627 of 627 (Filtered)

We still hold Tad on the basis of hope rather than expectation. The next few months will not be easy unless tad can manage newsflow effectively.

Thats not very nice DICK ;-)

Im sure everything will work out for you guys in the long run - very long run ;-)

Psychologically you guys really do worry me. The attitude.. I'M RIGHT AND I KNOW I AM BECAUSE MY MATES SAY SO - is a sure fire way to lose your dough.

But then again yu've been holding for so long now with no profits, why stop now.

oh well


pachandl - 30 Jun'04 - 11:31 - 629 of 630 (Filtered)



rjs - 30 Jun'04 - 11:44 - 630 of 630 (Filtered)

i thought i was allready filtered ;-) now who's retarded.

what a bunch yu guys really are. Its not my fault you are doing your money.

Smell the fear

Rumours of new rumours

Down it goes

"The Tadpole BB PR people would like to announce that all new rumours are put on hold until nearer the next fund raising once the 3.7M has been spent!"

:-))

Snappy
Smell the fear and see the buys, ok the price might be down but since 8.20 the buys have ouweighed sells by 2.1 on very heavy volume.

Anyone got a copy of the TAD annual report - what does it say about revenue recognition policy? Are they recognising on invoice or receipt of payment?

Yes yuff, smell the fear

who cares what buys are being reported, only a muppet bases their investments on what others are buying or selling in the market on a particular day.

I remember when Telewest collapsed in price the muppets were buying and couldn't understand why the price was heading south. For every buy somebody must be selling get it?

Smell the fear

DOWN SHE GOES

It is always nice to be filtered (by DD) for simply expressing an honest, yet sceptical stance. The problem with some people on Tad BBs is that they cannot fully understand that the current value of a share is determined by current market sentiment, current growth in turnover, current profits growth and current prospects, not by continued promises of future growth which eventually run hollow. Tad's products have great potential but it requires clear evidence of take-up, no promises to that effect. Getting in early can make you rich (if Tad does break through) but where small cap, jam-tomorrow companies are concerned it is a gamble - no amounts of research should persuade you otherwise. I remain a holder because I am a gambler.

zzaxx99:

For software, you should only recognize revenue at the point where the royalty/license fee is actually earned. A prepayment should not be recognized unless it is a non-returnable license sale. A prepayment based on usage should be recognized as usage is reported -- sell 50 in August, recognize 50 in August revenue, even if 1,000 units invoiced. Software maintenance is often paid a year in advance -- that should be recognised 1/12 per month until the next renewal. Tempting to stuff it all into the current quarter if you're having a hard time, though.

Many are the software companies that have been hauled over the coals for agressive revenue recognition policies.

The Microsoft deal sounded to me like there was no upfront payment at all, simply an agreement to sell n usages at $x each to maximum of $100k then review the deal. Bearing in mind that Microsoft has about $60bn in the bank, this did not sound like a Microsoft-driven deal. It sounded like a low-key deal done at zero risk to Microsoft and driven by Tadpole. If nobody uses it, it doesn't cost Microsoft a brass cent.

If Microsoft like this technology, and can't do it themselves quickly, they might just buy Tadpole. I find it hard to believe that they'd shell out the current market cap of 45m for it, though.

Just IMHO.

MM

Well that's strange.

Dickdasterdly1000 says morning all, then proceeds to filter several posters out. Why's that, don't we fit into your blinkered view of the market Dick????

H

Can anyone confirm that the MCI upfront payment was not booked to the latest set of interim accounts?

Madafish - you mentioned that at some point you would divulge how close you were re. Tad interims and where you went wrong. Have you had a chance to marshall your thoughts? Cheers.

pachandl

My estimates for the Intrims were way off the mark. Reasons being I did expect some form of payment for the Autodesk contracts that were booked around Xmas. Obviously not knowing the details I cannot even guess as to why ETI's earnings remained stagnant. Then there was the Initial down payment from MCI, deal ann in Jan, so i did expect to see it somewhere in the results.
These are the two factors that made my guess nearly 1.5M out. I still have no doubt that TAD will make it for us but we have to learn to walk before running.

Anyhow on the rumour front, its up early tomorrow and definately be up early Friday. You have been told!!!

M

good job the market`s closed on saturday and sunday

It's absolutely crucial to know what TAD's revenue recognition policy is - doesn't anyone have their annual report? If they recognise on invoice then the MCI advance payment is in the interims* (and a long way short of 2m); if they recognise on cash receipt then the money is yet to come.

* unless they didn't invoice MCI until MCI came out of C11??

zzaxx

march 03 debtors about 900k and short term creditors about 1.1m

seems to me no advance payment in there then as they look more like the day to day figures

I would therefore imagine that money was paid post year-end

it could be that they received the cash and are going to recognise it over the life time of the deal so it is sat in debotrs but unless the payment is tiny then the above figures do not bear it out

the annual report is on http://www.tadpoletechnology.com/downloads/investors/2003ar.pdf

zz - excellent point - I completely forgot that they could not have invoiced MCI until it had come out of its protected bankruptcy status. Having said that, I had a debate with Madafish about when payments were booked - if the upfront payment represents access to the technology then it should be booked almost immediately, but if it is an upfront "royalty access" payment (which also allows for additional royalties based on actual use/turnover) then, as DD has said, it could be spread across the full term of the agreement - unless you know different. Cheers.