overgrowth
- 13 May 2005 16:36
Retail Decisions are
market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They
produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally,
though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers
both in the UK and US.
They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be
a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this
"forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout
2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and
Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of
millions of shares in RTD !
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Shares Magazine had
a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is
about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution".
It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.
Here's what Shares
had to say:
"Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing
credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit
and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but
also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in
your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions.
Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime.
Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump
is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities
seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains
concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already
has fantastic experience and technology.
The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that
it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer,
T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner
of Macy's and Bloomingdales.
Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business
in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low
single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."
Retail Decisions have
continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz.
fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices
and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams
from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through.
In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over
their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company
is doing.
The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software
is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success
in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is
being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real
gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.
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Douggie
- 10 Feb 2006 16:47
- 632 of 1009
And another RED week ... !!!!!!!!!! :-{{
EVOLUTION
- 12 Feb 2006 21:25
- 633 of 1009
should get a boost tomorrow, given as a buy in scsw again, main write up
pachandl
- 13 Feb 2006 09:29
- 634 of 1009
Looking good this morning - perhaps a new trend will be established this week?
Ray A
- 13 Feb 2006 17:04
- 635 of 1009
Better day, 3rd March for prelims getting closer!
boxerdog
- 14 Feb 2006 13:26
- 636 of 1009
Excellent couple of days,more to come i hope!.Is there any significance in the RNS. released early PM.today,regarding GS.
optomistic
- 14 Feb 2006 14:04
- 637 of 1009
Small reduction in holding.
Douggie
- 14 Feb 2006 15:20
- 638 of 1009
........
Fred1new
- 14 Feb 2006 15:30
- 639 of 1009
Opt, not very optimistic. More to come.
optomistic
- 14 Feb 2006 15:41
- 640 of 1009
Must say I'm surprised at this sudden turn around.
Fundamentalist
- 14 Feb 2006 17:29
- 641 of 1009
Opto
im amazed that you are surprised, the market has been a false one for a while with the price being walked down and now being walked back up to accomodate the followers of various tip sheets which tipped this as a buy at the weekend. Be interesting to see where it goes from here - now approaching resistance at approx 152p - will it break this or will be get another dip (shake) prior to results
boxerdog
- 14 Feb 2006 18:59
- 642 of 1009
Opt,I'm surprised your surprised.I bought in once again last week (monday 1.43p bad timing) as a rise up to results is expected,as is a fall post results.This year i feel will be different due to the obvious diversification in RTD'S business portfolio.I now anticipate a rise in the SP.to results day and hopefully well into 2006.Fingers crossed.
optomistic
- 14 Feb 2006 19:44
- 643 of 1009
Fundy and Boxer, I suppose no one should ever be surprised as to what happens in stock trading. Perhaps as Fundy says as the stock has been walked down it is now being walked back up. Certainly the volume of buys does not appear to be that great as cause this rise over the last two days, although as said times before, what happens in trades on Virt-x is very difficult to account for. As for me I'm remaining cautious on this one, large moves up on lightly traded stocks can be just as fast followed by large moves down. Would like confirmation as to the actual performance of the company at the results even if it means missing the first part of the rise.
regards
opto
pachandl
- 14 Feb 2006 20:09
- 644 of 1009
I am surprised that Fund/Boxer are surprised that Opto is surprised. But perhaps I have been drinking too much this evening. However, I am slightly worried at the low volume - hoping that there is a buyer in the wings or that volume picks up as we approach results day. If neither materialises then we might well oscillate between 140 and 150 for some time to come.
Fred1new
- 14 Feb 2006 23:44
- 645 of 1009
if you want a little support for holding besides its Fundamentals and RNS, have a look at Directors and Institutional buying over last 12-18 months, Surprised me pleasantly.
Douggie
- 15 Feb 2006 10:28
- 646 of 1009
I'm just bemused ??.. ;-\
Fred1new
- 15 Feb 2006 12:44
- 647 of 1009
Douggie what we need is for you and Fundy to buy 500,0000 shares each giving the price a bit of momentum. We all know you both are just waiting to
Douggie
- 15 Feb 2006 12:45
- 648 of 1009
Fred I wish I had that many pennies...........!
pachandl
- 15 Feb 2006 13:33
- 649 of 1009
I have 500,000 pennies but alas, now that RTD has lost its penny-share status, it will not buy me that many extra shares. It looks like yesterday's sudden burst in the sp was a one-off. Keeping my fingers xxx'd for the week leading up to the results.
boxerdog
- 15 Feb 2006 14:03
- 650 of 1009
At this time last year pre results RTD. were trading at 1.80 based on better than expected trading figures.They currently stand round the 1.49 mark.Bearing in mind profits are again to be in excess of expectation and,recent additions to the company have pleased with their contribution.whats therefore holding things back. 1.80p appears modest to me.It's not rocket science just common sense.go on dip your toe in the water its not cold,promise!.
pachandl
- 15 Feb 2006 15:41
- 651 of 1009
Boxer - the market does not really operate on common-sense. However, it is worth pointing out that last year RTD were still being looked at as operating in the "sexy" sector on on-line fraud and could therefore "demand" a higher p/e rating. This year, although such activities will contribute to the bottom-line, RTD is looked more like a semi-utility in many ways - with a consequential drop in p/e expectations. I must admit to being disappointed but I do think that RTD's sp will continue to go up slowly from here. In many ways it reminds me of Speedy Hire's graph that eventually started going up slowly but surely every month - there is no substitute for good management but there is also no substitute for the PI and fund manager's short-termism.