NML is due its interrim results now, last year it was the 28th of this month.

They are setting up a new site to explore/research/analyse and all the equipment to do this should be on site now, and drilling should start soon, all this extra news should be covered in the interims.

does anyone have any further positive views on this company ??

mjr,

exactly, it's still a problem, and only one buy at 4.25p. then back to 4p offer again.

Andy - Yes this is still a very major problem this needs news and fast.The placing news is neither pos or neg although no doubt this means another 121/2 million shares for the seller to dump and trouser a profit on.
Alarm bells are starting to ring here the sps going no where and the mms are very keen to send it down rather than up .News is so urgently needed.

Can't see the problem myself. There was no mystery "seller" selling yesterday, just retail punters selling out probably for breakeven as far as I could see. Some holders are nervous and this not too suprising at this critical time.

News is needed to send the price upwards, but I don't see why it should go the other way.

I see this continued depression on low volumes as an opportunity to accumulate at a good price.

Now valued around 5M - scandalously cheap!

Back up we go - don't you just love bottoms?

How do you think a 5m valuation for this is cheap??

Are you having a laugh?

Clearly...

What are NML's net assets??

How much cash do they have??

How quickly are they generating it??

What are their EPS??

What p/e are they on??

How much of the profits will they actually get after the JV split??

Have a think, answer the questions and then post an answer... if it is more than 5m then I might agree!! So your telling me that if YOU had 5 million pounds in YOUR hands, YOU would buy this company????

If they do bounce from here (which probably might happen) it won't be because of fundamental value... it will probably be due to a half optimistic RNS that noone understands!!

What are NML's net assets??
>Hard to quantify

How much cash do they have??
>at least 500k

How quickly are they generating it??
>unknown at present

What are their EPS??
>unknown at present

What p/e are they on??
>n/a at present, as not generating a profit (that we know of)

How much of the profits will they actually get after the JV split??
> Now this is the interesting question, and the one that leads to some very exciting figures:

NML get 54% of the profits for the first 3 years, falling to 34% after that.

If their own estimates are met, this equates to 2.5M/year for the first 6 months or so rising to around 5.5M/year when production is doubled.

Applying the sector average p/e of 15, this leads to a realistic market cap of 37.5M to 82.5M, ie a share price of 23p to 51p.

And this is just for the Rio Lapi alluvials operation, on the currently identified resource.

You have to add on to this the value of the JV with Hudson and of course the potential of the kimberlites!

I am staggered if you can't see the potential growth here.

Thanks mjr1234 - interesting figures.

sd

I don't doubt any mining companies potential even this company's potential. I just like to see past performance of earnings assets etc...

I really hope it does find lots of diamonds.... but something doesn't sound right. My understanding is that a few people have spoke to shane healy on the telephone and he has made promises that he hasn't delivered.

There obviously is a seller somewhere, why can't nml keep the market updated as to who is selling??

Why has the fd only got a handful of shares??

There is no "big seller". The 300/400k of sells today have been easily absorbed by the 500k+ buys, hence the price is back where it started.

I do agree that the FD could own more than 7k's worth.

Remember, they all have share-price-performance related options though.

legend...that is a gross exaggeration. Shane Healy certainly was wrong in his time frames..no doubt about that. They grossly underestimated how long it would take them to get into Angola and set-up. The other oft-quoted misrepresentation is that Healy said that barges could be used to stabilize equipment in heavy weather. This is a means of mining in some areas but was misunderstood by the person to whom he said it as much as he..as an accountant..probably misunderstood it himself. The Badenhorst brothers in charge of the mine are skilled miners with a great deal of experience.
The Directors' options package is carefully constructed. They only get shares when the sp has been at 8p for a minimum of 21 days, then next lot at 16p, then 25p etc up to 54p (? or 52p)

takahe,

I think he was referring to Shane's famous "we'll hit the ground running" and " the diamonds are only 1 metre down" comments.

mjr1234,

"there is no big seller"?

I cetainly agree there, IMHO, there must be more than one, because there have been an awful lot of shares sold in the last year, and IMO the bid has been kept low to stem the tide.

Today the bis and offer were lowered, and a lot of ADVFN holders seem to have jumped in and bought, and time will tell whether they was lowered in order to achieve some buys or not.


With regard to share options, so you think they are the same as a director paying cash out of his own pocket to buy shares in the market?

No I don't, but they are certainly a big incentive for the Directors to see the company does well, just as owning more shares would be.

There are many companies where the Directors don't own that many shares. And why would NML's buy shares out of their own pocket when they can award themselves them for free once certain targets are met?

I actually think there may well have been a "big seller" or "big sellers" in the past, but I have seen no evidence of such for about a month, since the 1.5M K trades went through. I saw this as the end of a dump.

The share price is responding a lot better to both buys and sells now, as illustrated by todays actions. This suggests no overhang either way.

Andy..He did say 'we'll hit the ground running' ..and probably meant it. The difficulties of working in Angola are many, not the least of which is the red-tape involved, even worse than in this country.Cross and Healy have only been there since last Easter and, in my opinion, have achieved a lot in that time, in such an awkward place to work.
In areas there may be diamonds only a bit over a metre down.However, most will be much deeper than that, as the 'gaimperos' know only too well from having 'holes' cave in on them.
NML is a speculative stock.
The upside is the prospect of a Joint Venture with a major for the kimberlite on their tenement and the prospect of a take-over by one of the bigger players.

mjr1234,

Exactly, "why would they buy them now when they can award themselves free ones!", - That's what they have already done!

And that doesn't cost them a penny, so no risk (to them) there then.

I personally prefer to see directors putting their hand in their pockets and buying at least some shares, to show faith in themselves and their company, and feel this sends the right signal to the market.

takahe,

I agree they have achieved quite a lot in a difficult place, the jungle of Angola, the red tape and corrupt officials must take some dealing with.

However, Shane said that last August, so people's expectation was they would be mining in Sep/October, whereas the reality has been far different.

I still do not think they have a full mining licence to export their diamonds, although they are producing, as I would have expected an RNS to confirm this.

With regard to the kimberlite, do you know what percentage of kimberlites in the world are economically viable? I believe the figure is LESS thean 10% (more in Botswana) so it is certainly only a prospect at this time.

takahe - 08 Jun'05 - 14:59 - 654 of 656
"NML is a speculative stock."

LOL Most stocks quoted on AIM are..!!!