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Medusa Mining gold in Mindanao (MML)     

share trader - 18 May 2007 21:34

MML are an existing gold producer on the island of Mindanao, and are looking to expand production towards 100,000 ozs Pa during 2007.

Mining costs are low, around $250 per oz, and with gold around the $650 level, there is a healthy margin.

MML have returned good grades in recent exploration, and have an exploratory copper project within their licence area.


recent analysis - Click HERE


MML look undervalued compared to their peers, IMO.

humpback321 - 03 Feb 2012 21:50 - 64 of 122

Back over £4 after bad news and a bad run on the share price.

niceonecyril - 19 Feb 2013 17:37 - 65 of 122

MML has taken a bit of a hammering of late,beginning to look like a real bargain? Keeping a close eye on this one,thats for sure.

From one of the most knowladgable pi's,regarding mining stick,from about 2 weeks ago.
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Surprising to see MML down near 300p when they have just announced Saga commissioning and the commencement of the ramp-up to 200koz pa. But as we have already discussed, the market pays a lot more attention to TA than it does to fundamentals, and there is a clear history of bouncing off support in this area.

So I will just practice what I am forever preaching and add more stock on this dip.

We all know the best time to buy a stock (which has good fundamentals) is when the SP is depressed and sentiment is at it's worst. Conversely, the best time to lighten-up is when everyone wants to buy-in on a wave of greedy euphoria.

niceonecyril - 20 Feb 2013 09:49 - 66 of 122

"> Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=MML&Si

humpback321 - 20 Feb 2013 10:16 - 67 of 122

Nearly time to buy. Quite a volatile stock. May take a sudden upturn,but might be waiting for positive news which WILL come but there is still possibility of delays and production not up to expectations. Rolls a bit with the gold price,but with production expected to increase dramaticaly over the next two years with the implication of mine modifications and guaranteed reserves this must very near the bottom line.

niceonecyril - 20 Feb 2013 16:38 - 68 of 122

UT @280p as you say,nearly time to buy>

humpback321 - 21 Feb 2013 10:43 - 70 of 122

In at 272p.

niceonecyril - 21 Feb 2013 12:37 - 71 of 122

Sorely tempted,but i'll wait and see what the Aussie's make of the news,especially as ut's end of the week?

niceonecyril - 22 Feb 2013 08:47 - 72 of 122

DRAT,missed it,too clever by half. UP almost 30p.

humpback321 - 22 Feb 2013 09:53 - 73 of 122

500p target by year end.

niceonecyril - 22 Feb 2013 14:45 - 74 of 122

Congrats on your timing,still kicking muself. But it's still well undervalued at this SP.Can't believe i dithered at 272p,when i'd be watingfor a dip to around £3.

niceonecyril - 26 Feb 2013 10:59 - 75 of 122

Managed to get in sub £3,looks like just in time?

niceonecyril - 26 Feb 2013 18:46 - 76 of 122

GOLD flying at the minute, $1617.Prices below in POUNDS.

http://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/gold-price/gold-price-today/

niceonecyril - 27 Feb 2013 12:38 - 79 of 122

From SP Angel.

Medusa Mining* (LON:MML) – New Saga shaft lifts profits
Interim statement highlights development progress at Co-O gold mine in the Philippines
• Medusa Mining have published their interim report for H1 2013 eg July to end-December 2012.
• The key component of the statement is the forecast outlook which highlights a marked improvement in gold production over the next 16 weeks and thereafter.
• Gold production is set to rise to somewhere between 47,420oz-57,420oz for the January to end-June along with a significant fall in unit cash costs.
• Management have bravely given a clear breakdown of expected production for the next five fiscal years (see tables included below)
• The table highlights a marked rise in forecast gold production this year with production to average a rate of 200,000ozpa from the second half of this calendar year (H1 FY 2014).
• The team also expect the Bananghilig Mill, just 30km from the Co-O mine, to contribute a further 100,000oz to gold production in CY 2015 to give 200,000ozpa in FY 2016.
• Combined gold production should reach 400,000ozpa in FY 2016 according to the forecasts
Interims H1 FY 2013:
• Sales rose 28% to US$52.4m yoy on production of 32,508oz vs 26,780 yoy while
• Gold prices received were little changed at US$1,676/oz vs 1,655/oz yoy through the period.
• Net profits rose 19% to US$28.6m highlighting better operational performance.
• Cash costs rose to US$300/oz from $261/oz, still very low by industry standards no matter which way you account for the costs.
• The Saga shaft at the Co-O gold mine is now operating from the 350m level creating new operational efficiency and enabling the extraction of ore from newly exposed veins from developments from the bottom of the Saga shaft.
• Work is ongoing at the Baguio shaft at Co-O to extend this to level 5 and the Agaso shaft is to be extended to level 8 when this level becomes fully operational.
• Capital is being saved through deepening the inclined shafts postponing the need for a new deep shaft in this area.
• Resources have grown at Co-O to >2moz to give ten years of potentially mineable ore.
• Bananghilig: Drilling confirms an indicated 608,000oz gold resource with 472,000oz inferred but soon to be included through 14 holes of infill drilling. A feasibility study for 200,000oz pa should follow.
• Valuation: Medusa is performing in line with our forecasts. Our valuation adjusts down to 585p from 612p due to our changing gold price forecast to $1,663/oz for H1 2013 from $1,700/oz. This is a relatively minor adjustment in the scheme of things.
• Medusa has managed to self funded the development and expansion of the Co-O gold mine and processing plant without recourse to shareholders and is also improving the quality of its operation. The stock has good liquidity which should improve further as the revenues increase.
• Dividend: Medusa is not paying a dividend this period due to the cost of its expansion program at the Co-O gold mine. There may be some investor disappointment at the lack of an interim dividend.
• Medusa remains unhedged to gold prices.

Conclusion: Medusa have driven through extreme weather and other events to expand the Co-O gold mine to new levels.
The mine is now running at a much increased rate with many more gold veins in development and much greater hoisting capacity in the shafts.
The plant is being expanded to take rising throughput towards target levels and to raise capacity further.
A new mill is to be tied-into the plant in June to speed up gold recoveries to enable yet greater capacity.

We have reduced our target valuation to 585p from 612 pence to reflect marginally lower gold price forecasts.< strong>

humpback321 - 28 Feb 2013 08:38 - 80 of 122

Interims very positive.Ramp up of production should see steady increase in share price, and any GOLD PRICE increase will take it substantialy higher. The fly in the ointment will be if there are any more delays.

niceonecyril - 01 Mar 2013 11:00 - 81 of 122

Is this one of the markets bargains,could well be at this SP, looks like the POG will decide ?

With their production missing targets and cash burn the SP has suffered,but as this
post by a respected poster explains.


They have had 18 months of this development and are still needing to process largely development ore. Hardly surprising that production and costs have suffered during this phase. As for CAPEX, this was well signalled long ago and has had to be paid out of cash and free cash flow over the development period. Thankfully, unlike many other mining operations, they have at least had the wherewithal to do this without recourse to shareholder funding.
--------------------------------------------------------------
I'll be keeping this on my watchlist,16 weeks was mentioned to increased
production and remenber their costs is one of the lowest.

niceonecyril - 03 Mar 2013 21:04 - 82 of 122

C&P from a pi's calcs. Looking good to me?


We last had EPS of 36p in 2011 when they achieved 101,474 ozs and costs were mega low at $189. But the Gold price was only $1089 and we still hit c. £5.50 a share.

This CY - 2013, according to their forecasts we will be above the previous production high of 101,000ozs at 150,000/160,000 ozs. with Gold now around $1600 and costs at c.$250/$300 (forecast by Co.)

"> Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=MML&Si

niceonecyril - 16 Mar 2013 23:01 - 83 of 122

Interesting discussion from around 16mins.

ww.youtube.com/watch?v=bNYplo-Nwlw
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