The hcl looks likely to come into operation over the next few months, will this improve the share price or will we have to wait for an actual PSA before any increase takes place? It looks like the UK and the US will wait until the HCL is in place first before they decide to start the pull out. I have also heard news that the contracts signed during the Saddam regime are now definitely going to be honoured. I`m not sure if this includes PET as there seems to be some doubt as to whether they qualify as their agreement wasn`t signed off by Saddam. A Swiss company has announced that they expect to be producing 200,000 barrels/pd by 2009 from their PSA with the Kurds. They have struck oil first time and have five more drills left to complete their programme. Nice if PET were in that position! Our time will come though, just a matter of hanging on in there!!

Cynic, no offence taken. My comment was light-hearted as I can see the funny side.Talking of which PET up again this morning.Intra day highs 101p-104p fallen back 100p-101p.Though PET better buy when first mentioned 60-70p,still cheap methinks.

Once psychological 100p barrier broken next target becomes 110p.

Volumes UK & GSE total over 904k and not even mid-day.

Happy with progress and do not mind consolidation around 100p.

Keep lucky

anyone see Channel 4 news about Iraq and oil, half hour ago..Iraq parliament gone on hols...an unofficial law passed for foreign oil companies to explore.
However its not recognised by government and will be months before it gets passed and may even be reviewed by government when they reconvene

I think I will jump ship early Wednesday

Jumped ship Monday (97p), held since 38p, will get back in if under 50p, laugh if you like but as far as I can see there is no news, only rumour and speculation, can see this going big but only when war over, contracts awarded etc etc, till then I think it will drift down.

pinechris---------Only natural to secure some profits well done, I bought @ 42p and perhaps I should do the same (been too greedy in the past on PET) however have held over 3 years and whilst your comments above may well be right, if you buy in after the war is over and contracts awarded then you almost certainly will be paying a price far in excess of their current sp. IMO the floor is now around 60-65p. BWDIK.
2517

it cannot possibly be wrong to top-slice at the very least ...... even relative peace in iraq is not likely any time soon, let alone the awarding of contracts and the actual discovery of a commercial well or two ...... it follows that PET's sp will remain hostage to rumour into the far distant future

6 Aug 2007 fantasy portfolio

10k bought @ 87.6p total 8,860.10 gross - .

Net paper profit at closing prices = 327.40


Oh ye of little faith and understanding.Don't mind being the only one KTF.Keep holding.

Cynic,so that can compare notes,please let me what 'other fish' you are into?

you have no e-mail .... 24 asst'd stocks at present

In market mayhem,PET stood up very well on friday.Buyers moved in 89p-91.75p.

100michael - 10 Aug'07 - 10:39 - 90060 of 90291

This is the opportunity of a lifetime - staring us all in the face, PET have an unprecedented opportunity, work effort exactly right over last 9 years, strong relationships built, strong capable leaders at the top, proved not to be just there to take but to give something back to the people of Iraq, diplomats, and rightly so, PET have helped train local people and have invested and delivered aid to the needy over last 9 years,flying in essential baby food and medical supplies etc, sponsoring local community, want to and are working with the Iraqi people, prepared to live in Iraq, walking the walk, ready to hit the ground running at a moments notice, right there on the ground - not just prepared to study seismics for the next few years from the safety of overseas boardrooms, taking risks right now side by side with the Iraqi people, the foundations are built, the trust is being won, the directors are genuine, commited people - essential in this situation, the HCL will soon pass, our PET will be ready, and unless you are accumulating a decent holding you will be kicking yourselves, buy when everyone else is selling, greed when everyone else is fearful, if you prefer, or average up, or down...it doesn't really matter, the point is this might be THE investment of your lifetime...I can not believe people are prepared to risk trading in and out of this stock, and as for the fearful ones selling, they obviously have not done their homework on PET, or are using funds they really should not be using as this is a long term play, and the tight holders are fortunate indeed to have discovered this company - buy at any price imho/pdyor

Note: oil in the ground has a value pre-production.

kdickson - 15 May'07 - 12:45 - 77730 of 90291


All this talk of 5 per share makes me think it's time for a 'fag packet' calculation to keep us focussed on the massive potential of PET.

Does anyone remember an ADVFN poster named edgein who was an O&G guru who used to post on the EME/VOG threads. The following part post were his thoughts on one method he used to value oil in the ground:-

The other method I use which you might prefer and I think is less complicated but just a rough guide:
Use the current oil price to work out the current Net Present Value of the oil reserves of a co. Take 10% of that value as the value of oil in the ground and that gives a present value based on the current market oil. A simplier and much quicker system to use. I personally rarely use PE to calculate the value of an oil stock My system tends to be highly conservative, but then again I'm rarely disappointed and regularly in profit.

Im no expert on valuing oil companies but, based on the above, does anyone majorly disagree with the sort of share price achievable in my calcualtions below?

Petrels presentation said Block 6 has 3 to 5 billion barrel potential.

Lets say 4 billion barrels at $55 = $2,200 billion
Divide by 2 to get into pounds = 1,100 billion
Take 10% as value of oil in ground = 110 billion
Take 20% as PSA share = 2,200 million
Split 3 ways (Itochu/Makman/PET) = 740 million each (approx)
Divide by 74 million shares = 10 /share (74m mentioned in presentation)

(Mmmm, now whos always predicted 10 share price!?)

i.e. for every 1 billion barrels, value to PETs share price for oil in the ground is 2.50

Now, toting up PETs potential contracts:-
Halfaya 10 billion barrels
S&L (deeper levels) 2 bbls (say)
Merjan 0.75 bbls
Block 6 4 bbls
TOTAL = 16.75 billion barrels at 2.50 per bbls = oil in ground price of 40 + (excludes East Safawi as well!).

mclellan - 12 Aug'07 - 18:28 - 90312 of 90319


Iraqi PM calls for political leaders' meeting

Baghdad - Voices of Iraq
Sunday , 12 /08 /2007 Time 9:26:57




Baghdad, Aug 12, (VOI)- Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki called on Sunday for a summit meeting by political leaders during the two upcoming days.




"The internal political problems the country is suffering from, have forced me to make a call for the Iraqi political leaders to meet in a summit during the next two days," Maliki told a news conference in Baghdad.
The Prime Minister added "the aim behind the summit is to address basic topics arisen in the Iraqi political arena as well as considering the political program and the strategic problems facing the government."
"The meeting is to address the political program agreed upon when the current government was formed and ways to implement it. Demands submitted by individual blocs will be discussed as allowed by the constitution," Maliki told reporters concerning the topics on the meeting agenda.
The Iraqi Prime Minister who expected a number of decisions out of the summit including naming substitute ministers to replace the Sadrists who quit from the cabinet said "we will not stop at discussing the demands by the blocs; rather we will consider the commitments they have to honor as well."
"Demands submitted by the blocs will be implemented if they complied with the constitution, otherwise we will apologize for them," Maliki noted.
As regards naming new Sunni ministers to replace the quit Accordance Front ministers, the Iraqi Prime Minister said "we hope that the crisis will end and the Accordance ministers be back to the cabinet but if they refused to do so we will find ourselves obliged to replace them."
Al-Maliki also stressed that his government will not collapse saying "it is a wish by some but it is far the day when people would see the government in its count down."
The Prime Minister applauded the Iraqi security forces saying "the forces are working on two parallel lines to strike with iron arm on the heads of terror and to increase, develop and train the already existing troops."
"The terror going on in Iraq has links to foreign states that were adopting ideologies hostile to Iraq but recently they felt that supporting terror will make it spread outside Iraq to other countries," the Iraqi Premier told reporters.
The Prime Minister who just ended official visits to Turkey and Iran told the news conference that he got pledges from Turkey and Iran to support Iraq in face of violence and providing basic services to its people, noting that he would visit other regional countries in the upcoming days.
Al-Maliki also welcomed the U.N. resolution to expand its work in Iraq saying "the resolution is in favor of the government as it will enhance our efforts and policies."
SK



mclellan - 12 Aug'07 - 18:37 - 90313 of 90319


Maliki gives upbeat revelation on government's performance
Baghdad (NINA) Iraqi Prime Minister has given an upbeat revelation about the performance of the government within the coming days. In a news conference held Sunday, Nouri Al-Maliki said a meeting, for which the cabinet has called on all political leaders to consider the strategic deadlocks
**********************
So, the Govt still seems to be working away...

pixi - 12 Aug'07 - 21:42 - 90318 of 90319


The 21st century oil rush will be triggered when the Iraqi HCL is approved.

Oil is the engine of the Iraqi economy. All players in the Iraqi oil industry are keen to boost Iraqi oil production.

OiI companies are now lining up to get into the third biggest onshore oil field in the world with recovery costs of around $1-2 per barrel.

It is likely that Big Oil will sit on any contracts they get until the security situation improves. That leaves the door open for Petrel/Makman/Itochu. The Iraqi's are likely to give any work to their own people first. Tiny Petrel, unknown to the share tipsters and by the general public at large, intends to be an Iraqi oil independent.

Petrel has been continuously active in Iraq since 1999 and is now considered one of the most established players in the Iraqi oil industry.

Petrel has MASSIVE potential in Iraq.

bit about PET may well be accurate, but the great unknown is just how long it will be until the country is stable enough to allow relatively normal government to resume, with all that that implies ..... until that time, i cannot believe there will be any new wells spudded, let alone contracts awarded

Nearer we get to approval of HCL, the risks lessen.When HCL approved and PET awarded PSA contracts PET will be valued and re-rated pre-production based on "oil in the ground." Once you accept this concept & Iraq IS the place to be only then opens up mind to the true potential here.

See post 72.PET already in Iraq and been working there several years.Happily working in South Iraq,no probs whatsoever.PET been there throughout accepting risks."Well in" with Iraq Ministry of Oil (and Iran).Who is likely to benefit? PET Ready & waiting.Glory of PET able to begin work immediately,whereas,majors might leave it for a few years for security to settle.

I took the speculative risk investing 60.5p-70p.Added last thursday @ 91p.

PET an Iraq independent oil company.Minnow now........Huge,huge potential.

http://www.iraqdevelopmentprogram.org/idp/news/business/newolilaw.htm

http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/Story.asp?Article=190322&Sn=BUSI&IssueID=30145

katoema - 13 Aug'07 - 11:31 - 90431 of 90433


Pixi:
It is interesting browsing all of Itochu's different websites. There are details on Tullow and Dana for example, but I have found absolutely nothing on PET. Research has shown that they like also to have loss leaders, but cannot see PET in this catagory! K

ander - 13 Aug'07 - 11:31 - 90432 of 90433


Hi mclellan....pm for you on FYB.

bbd2 - 13 Aug'07 - 11:34 - 90433 of 90433


Iraq leader says he's optimistic about chances of unity
By The Washington Post and Los Angeles Times


BAGHDAD Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki on Sunday expressed optimism about the chances of reconciliation within Iraq's fractured government, even as a political rival accused him of protecting militias with ties to Iran.

Meanwhile, the U.S. military announced that five soldiers were killed Saturday when a sniper shot one, then lured the others to a house rigged to explode. It was the single deadliest attack against American forces this month.

Four troops were wounded in the incident, which occurred southeast of Baghdad in Arab Jabour, a haven for Sunni insurgents.

Al-Maliki announced Sunday that a meeting of Iraq's leaders would begin this week, possibly today, in an attempt to resolve the growing political crisis. The results of the summit could have significant ramifications for the progress report that Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, is to present to President Bush and Congress on Sept. 15. Al-Maliki's desire to create a cohesive government has been crippled by tensions among Shiite factions and by a sense of alienation among minority Sunnis, leaving several key pieces of legislation stalled.

In announcing the meeting, Al-Maliki said he hoped the six Cabinet members from the Iraqi Accordance Front the largest Sunni political bloc would return to the government. But he added that he would not hesitate to replace the politicians with other Sunnis, saying several tribal sheiks had approached him about filling the seats.

It remained uncertain, however, whether Sunni leaders would heed the call for negotiations. Adnan Dulaimi of the Iraqi Accordance Front, the largest Sunni political bloc in parliament, appealed to neighboring Arab countries Sunday for help in defeating what he called Iranian-supported Shiite violence against Sunnis.

Seventeen of al-Maliki's 37 Cabinet ministers have abandoned the government in recent weeks, many claiming the Shiite prime minister has turned a blind eye to torture, assassinations and execution-style slayings by Shiite extremists. Much of the violence has been blamed on Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's Al Mahdi militia operating from the impoverished Sadr City.

President Bush ordered an increase in troop levels earlier this year, bringing the total U.S. deployment to near 160,000, in an attempt to quell both insurgents and sectarian extremists so al-Maliki could firm up the fragile ethnic and religious coalition that make up his government. Coalition forces on Sunday also raided suspected al-Qaida in Iraq hide-outs in western Baghdad, Samarra, Mosul and Tikrit, arresting 30 suspected militants, including two accused of weapons trafficking for the group, the military reported.

Mortars also landed on a northern neighborhood of the capital Sunday evening, killing four Iraqis. An Iraqi soldier was gunned down outside of his home in Babel, and an Interior Ministry source reported that 17 bullet-riddled male bodies were found during the day dumped around Baghdad.

Cynic,ongoing review of fantasy portfolio 'had' you bought! Based on mm bid @ 93p this morning on paper profits 427.40 net. Wait 'til PET trading 1+

lex1000 - 09 Aug 2007 01:21 - 70 of 78
6 Aug 2007 fantasy portfolio

10k bought @ 87.6p total 8,860.10 gross

Remember first posted moneyAM when sp 66p.If you are risk averse buy when HCL approved.What price sp then & what price followed by major news?

mclellan - 13 Aug'07 - 11:56 - 90438 of 90441


Someone mentioned the Pet/Makman/Itochu split.
I don't think we know what the proportion is.

"The arrangement is subject to the approval of the Iraqi Ministry of Oil. Petrel and Makman will form a new company for the purposes, in which each party will have a 50% share."


The cooperation agreement between Petrel and ITOCHU will initially cover work on the Merjan oil field. ITOCHU will also have a first look at future Petrel projects in the Iraqi oil and gas upstream sector. ITOCHU will contribute towards Petrel's historic costs in the Iraqi oil and gas sector and will cover a fixed share of the costs of the current study.



Dipbob - 13 Aug'07 - 12:00 - 90439 of 90441


McLellan,

You are quite right.

We dont know what the splits are other than:-

Subba Luhais = Pet/Makman (JV 50%)
Merjan = Pet/Itochu (Historic Costs)

Cant help but think wonder if there is a project pending where all 3 work together (H) ?

mclellan - 13 Aug'07 - 12:07 - 90440 of 90441


(H) sounds a possibility

Simon K - 13 Aug'07 - 12:07 - 90441 of 90441


Yes - that is pretty well what we know about the Itochu in the context of their general co-operation agreement with PET. It is referred to as "considerable support" by DH.


Makman is generally referred to as a joint Venture with an Iraqi Contracting Group, which covers the Subba & Luhais oil field development services contract. Makman are providing security, local transport as well as construction and engineering support. We are told that Petrel and Makman will form a new company for the purposes of the Joint Venture in which each party will have a 50% share. Under the Agreement, Makman will provide a Bank Guarantee for the 5% Performance Bond, and a further Bank Guarantee to enable the Iraqi Ministry of Oil's project company to issue a 10% advance payment to finance the project.

On line quotes: Bid 93p max-60k v Offer 95p max-5k

Simon K - 13 Aug'07 - 12:43 - 90453 of 90453


mixitup - re the discusion on PET / Makman / Itochu, if you are out there, I recall your post back in February - referred to as your longest post to date and your hope that it is not a load of bollocks - quote un quote. And no it isn't!. It is of interest, given the calculations, at the time, based of course on what we knew at the time.

mixitup12 - Tue, 20 Feb 07 :
.......If PET just receive the Merjan block as a PSA, then talking figures of 750 million barrels of oil on Merjan. Presuming that the PSA is awarded at 20%. Which divided by 3(Itochu and Makman included), that would give them 6.67%. Presume that the field lasts for 30 years, that is 25 million barrels per annum. 6.67% of 25 is 1,667500 barrels per annum. Multiply by $60 per barrel, gives about $100 million per annum or ?50 in sterling. With a P/E of 15, that would value the company at ?750 million or roughly ?10 per share. I haven't included cost of extraction of $1 per barrel. That is what I think is the minimum bottom line of where the share could go this year. It probably won't pan out like that. Just think if they get the 15 billion barreel field, what the sp could get to. Forget Cairn, forget White Nile, this is PET in Iraq.

Frankfurt offer creeping up.PET touching 100p a share on German Stock Exchange.

Frankfurt
IE0001340177 1,47
18:55:12
13.08.2007

18:55:12 1,47 300
18:18:08 1,47 1.400
17:54:39 1,46 5.000
17:52:59 1,44 5.000


Stuttgart
IE0001340177 1,46
18:09:27
13.08.2007

18:09:27 1,46 1.500
17:57:47 1,46 225