Just cannot understand recent SP volatility!

As a Dana shareholder I find it difficult to
find any reason to sell, even at current price. The Company has recently
entered a number of agreements which will have
considerable benefits:-

1. Reserves from 31st December 2003 of 123.7 mmboe
must now be in the region of 200.0 mmboe.( 100 million
North Sea 70 million Mauritana 30 million Russia ).

2. Production will rise to 25-27 thousand boepd in
2005 from 18 thousand in 2004.

3. At 30th June 2004 a Net cash position which will
have been enhanced significantly year to date.

4. Exciting exploration potential.

5. Management that seem to know what they are doing
with an excellent chief executive.

6. Recent deals by other oil companies have seen oil
assets bought at prices between 7-11 dollars a barrel
( see last weeks Investors Chronicle ) Dana must have
a value well in excess of the current 300 million.

I am holding firm and looking towards 800 pence.

Any other views out there?

Carsie. some say DNX will reject 18, in which case KNOC may walk away. Others say KNOC or another may offer 20, but that seems to be the max value attributable to DNX. The fact that DNX's reaction is almost impossible to guage & that their assets are very hard to value has the brokers worried that the whole thing will fall flat, hence the advice to lock in any profit you have. If the sp reaches anywhere near 18, I would be inclined to get out & move on.

Thanks Cynic and Harrycat. Your advice appreciated.

Just to give a summary of what's in this w/e FT, KNOC has tabled a 18/share offer on condition it can carry out due diligence on DNX assets. However it appears that KNOC have inserted a few pre-conditions which are not acceptable to DNX, one of which is that DNX does not solicit for any other offers. It also appears there is a clash of personalities with each saying that the other is refusing to agree on a meeting. The last point is that there may be some doubt as to how KNOC are going to finance the deal as far as DNX are concerned, though KNOC seem to be confident that, as South Korea's national oil company, that particular question is not in doubt. Evo securities say maybe 10 if the deal falls through.

sell quick looks to be order of the day, even if sp tumbles somewhat on monday

certainly will be looking to sell mine I think. Tempting to stay in case of another suitor joining the fray, but i'd rather have the money invested elsewhere after the recent gains.

first thought prudent; second thought dumb

Nothing wrong with taking money off the table, bid or no bid, Anne-Marie drilling commenced which "could" change the outlook.

With the lastest discovery in Egypt, glad I haven't yet sold up. Looks like easily recoverable oil and within a short location of last find, commercially viable.

They can discover an "oil eldorado" but in a bid situation : it won't make much difference.

anyone think its worth shorting dana on the offchance the deal doesnt go ahead?