The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.

If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.

Very true. I think it's also important to back your judgement call. I think markets are set for a big fall, and a near record high on the DOW looks like a good point for things to go wrong. Just as FTSE 7000 fell short and led to a falling market, I wonder if DOW 13000 might just do the same. I sleep (and work) happier knowing most of my cash is in the bank now. If others feel there's more money to make, then that's their call, and I wish them luck.

In my opinion.......

Strawbs.
Less of a glass half empty, and more of a bank account mostly full kind of investor. :-)

Ah, but your glass is never going to be completely full, or overflowing, with all your cash getting a miserly 5% gross at the bank! :o)

My glass has been full on a number of occasions. That's why when it reaches the top, I empty it and wait for the bottom, to start filling it up again. :-)

Overflowing is no good anyway.......you loose too much down the drain.

Strawbs.

some very honest and creditable replies. i think the market has proved time after time after time, for the glass to be overflowing you have to be invested in shares for a long, long time. How high was the market in 77, 87, 97, 07???

I often wonder if the world is now more unstable now than its ever been, but perhaps people always think that. The market is only just getting back to how it was before 9/11. But a way lot higher than 15 years ago. But with Iran just around the corner, unstability in Iraq, dollar-pound rate, higher inflation, import/export deficiet and interest rates perhaps cautious is the way to go in the short term.

Given that bull markets last until a top (last of the higher highs), and then bear markets run until a bottom (last of the lower lows), the setting of new highs must at least be something of a concern.

Markets are all sentiment driven, and something will no doubt change sentiment, just as it did in February. With so many things on the horizon, as mentioned above, any little thing could set the bears amongst the pigeons again.... I think most market crashes tend to happen in the Autumn though, so maybe there's time yet to make more money (for those with a glass half full). Of course May is also only weeks away, so if there's anything in the saying "sell in May and go away", maybe higher prices now are just there to encourage the buyers, and not signs of market strength.

Only time will tell I guess. Good luck all, whatever your stratergy......

In my opinion anyway.....

Strawbs.

FTSE currently ay 6565, DOW at 13326, Nikkei at 17553.
Although the highs are now being pushed to new limits, many brokers admit that the FTSE over 6600 would be too high to be sustainable. It looks like we may reach that though, but with a possible big market correction afterwards.
Interestingly, a letter in the last Shares Mag is quoted as predicting "a stock market crash before the end of July". Crash is probably just a euphemism for correction, but I am certainly looking to put more of my money in to defensive stocks over the summer, or taking money out altogether, ready to buy back in when the correction has happened. Naturally, this is only a worry to conventional traders; spread betters won't mind either way. Of course, that could be the answer: open a spread betting account!

Other things on at the moment, but thinking the same way myself HC.

My money's in the bank these days. The returns aren't great but at least they're safe.

I've no idea when (or maybe even if) the market will crash, but logically it must come to an end at some point. Since nobody can pick the top or bottom of any market, it comes down to a personal choice of when it feels comfortable to invest money in assets or save the money in the bank.

I believe markets are driven by the herd. Initially people invest because they see prospects, but towards the end they only see the money, jumping on board because a share or asset keeps rising. At some point the herd turns, and the rush to preserve wealth is far faster than the slow rise to create it. You can either be part of the herd, and hope you're at the front of the queue when it turns, or you can decide to leave it, even if that means watching it disappear into the distance.

The housing market, commodity markets, and stock market have all had a very good run, and my worry is that most of this is fuelled by very large levels of borrowing, either conventional or leveraged. If like a house of cards that starts to collapse, it will I believe create a very significant correction in all these asset classes.

What will make the herd turn? Who knows. A bursting of the Chinese stock market bubble? Higher inflation as Chinese workers demand higher wages? An economic slow down in China once the Olympics are out of the way? Higher interest rates? A rise in unemployment? Recession in the US? Or maybe even a new chancellor....... It could be anything really. You certainly won't know until it happens, and you won't know for sure until months later, by then of course it's all to late.

Good luck to everyone still invested.....

All just in my opinion.....

Strawbs.

My money is on the chinese market starting the downward trend as the investing frenzy in china seems to have got out of control, but of course any unforseen terrorist attack can trigger the same thing, though ironically the market seems to quickly bounce back from such attacks.
Interesting post #10 on the "costly lesson to the wise" thread.

US has a tame inflation, so I don't think there is a cause for worry yet.

Any opinions on whether there is much further to go on this downward slide?
There are some bargains to be had out there; even the usually safe utilities have dropped a good bit.
Is this the start of 'The big one' or just another correction?

I really thought it was the start of a downturn last time, but, having bought lots in last 2 days, this will surely be the start of a Bear run... lol
no i still say correction... be happy to hear others comments...

its not before time only time will tell

i agree .... all a bit hairy-scary but for sure the trend has not been broken by a long chalk

Grim isn't it... Dow has a bad time and we catch a cold!
bad week for me losing 200ish so far..
looks as though sell in may and go away is catching up with us..see us getting down to the 6200-6300 range

200ish!?

pmsl. Sounds like quite a good week to me!

the underlying fear driving the markets lower, is that inflation and therefore interest rates are likely to move rather higher in the short/medium term, rather than lower as was the expectation just a few weeks ago

Is the DOW likely to be down again this afternoon? The spreadbetters will presumably have a fair idea of the answer to this?
If we are heading up again, I might have a nibble at NWG or some other.

Assuming it is a correction, that'll be the 3rd in about 18 months, and the second in 4 months. There must come a point where the "risk/reward" premium no longer favours equities, especially if the frequency of these corrections increases. I've no doubt the major investment houses have some kind of formula that dictate how they shift money around, which may have kicked in with the recent movements in the bond market. I think market tops are often proceeded by lots of corrections and bounces, as money switches in and out of the market as the "risk/reward" profiles switch between different asset classes. At some point one class will win out though and that's when the market swings decisivley. Personally I'm happy to stay in cash.

Strawbs.

indications are currently -22 on Dow, which is really neither here nor there .... however, my advise would be to do nothing at all