I thought it might be good to share something about my objectives and my investing style. I hope you find it of interest and generates some discussion as I think Moneyam needs something more at the moment.

I work full time so I’m an investor now. In general I do have time to check the markets during the day but there are days when I’m in meetings for hours on end and it’s not appropriate. This works well for me as stops me over-trading. I suspect I would make less if I sat at a computer all day trying to invest.

Please feel free to discuss you trading style and reflect on how I could improve what I do.

I have two pots. The first pot is my SIPP and I therefore consider I must invest this with extreme caution. I consider a return of 5-10% as acceptable and any more as a bonus. The second pot is my trading pot where I take more risk. I am looking for 10+% plus a year from this. I only invest in UK equities. I no longer trade CFD’s or spreadbets due to the nature of my job, although many years ago I made a living day-trading.

My performance over the last 6 years is as follows:
2010 -0.3%
2011 -34.8% (too little diversification, bad timing and not very pleasant)
2012 +70.7% (umm – too little diversification –just got the timing wrong on the previous years purchases)
2013 +36.8% (umm – still too little diversification but what do you do when you’re in the right trades??)
2014 +5.5% (diversification getting better but my biggest share-holding hurt me badly)
2015 +5.5% so far

I have a very simple trading style. My primary objective is to sell equities when Ftse is high and buy when it is low i.e. I choose my entry and exit point depending on whether Ftse is overbought or oversold. The choice of share is secondary.

I often buy stocks in a clear downtrend on chart support points when Ftse is beaten up on the premise that Ftse will turn up in a short time frame setting up a bounce for the stock. These stocks will generally also have attracted me because of fundamentals, dividends or I believe they are significantly oversold. I also like recovery stories with long circulating bid rumours. Sometimes I buy stocks after research leads me to believe the share is significantly undervalued – this can be very profitable but usually a great amount of patience is required.

So, to explain in more detail this year as Ftse moved up early in the year I started selling heavily as Ftse reached 6700. By the time it reached its peak I was 91% in cash. As it headed back down again in June I started buying again at 6700 and by the end of June as Ftse was around 6500 I was 95% invested. Clearly I haven’t called this that well this year based on the evidence but I’m comfortable about it as doing something was better than doing nothing. Ftse is down 3.8% year to date and I’m up 5.5%. I suspect most people would be pretty happy with that – I am.

Here is my portfolio. It’s quite unbalanced and deliberately so. It breaks a load of rules with regard to diversification
24.3% - Sorry but I can’t share this stock with you yet as it’s not that liquid and I’m still acquiring stock. I’ve done my research and honesty believe a doubling of share price in three years would be a really poor outcome.

14.8% RBS. Most of these I have acquired between 337 and 362 although I have a few from 307. Already sold a few from 307 last week and if I can get somewhere between 339 and 342 next week they will be gone too. Earlier in the year they were trading at 400 and there were no sellers in sight as it trudged up day after day from 380 to 400. I’m of the view that this will come back over time as the government require the banks to be strong and make profits so we don’t have another crisis. I intend to hold all of these for a while (except for the few I’m selling next week) and start off-loading around 385 and see what happens from there

8.3% RDSB. Like many PI’s I’ve got drawn in by the dividend and most of these were bought between 1845 and 2025. I have a few at 1598 from last week which I honestly thought would be far higher given the rise in oil this week. I think oil has a bit higher to run yet and I’m looking to sell the ones from 1598 soon as I’ve got a few too many. Not sure what to do about the rest but the dividend of around 6% helps.

6.3% VSVS. Provides products to the steel industry. I’m in this as I think there is/will be global move away from concrete to steel due to construction costs and environmental issues. I bought these a few months ago and I’m a few percent down at the moment which is pleasing given general state of Ftse. The share register is interesting and the price activity over the last few weeks intrigues me and I have a “feeling in my waters” we may see some rumours around this stock over the next few months.

6.1% HSP – Hargreaves Services. In some ways I wish I’d never heard of this stock and I’m 14% down on them at the moment although it was far worse. This is a case of me doing research, working out its undervalued and buying on the expectation others would realise this too. The market can remain irrational for some considerable time when it has a mind to! It got really bashed around recently on a trading update and then bounced significantly on its interims. Since it delivered what it would said it would in the trading update nothing ceases to surprise me any longer.
Surprisingly it fell last week as oil rose. Offering a 9% dividend with two-thirds of this already declared for next month. I’m hoping to scale back on this in the near future and if not I’m fairly relaxed due to the dividend

5.8% PFL. Premier Farnell. Famous for the Raspberry Pi although that’s not why I bought it. I bought about two-thirds between 170 and 180 because of the chart and I thought the euro would strengthen (which has proved to be correct but hasn’t helped). The other third I bought last week at 119 and if I can get somewhere between 133 and 138 next week I’m selling. They may go for less. I don’t really want this many and I’ve got my eye on a few other things (HMSO around 620 looks a much better place to be). 8% dividend if it can afford to maintain it which the city boys seem to doubt. I’m of the view it has sufficient cash to pay this for the moment but I guess won’t be surprised if it’s cut. We’ll know soon enough

5.8% SFR. Severfield. Steel again. I like the man in charge. I bought at 69p and it held up well until the last couple of days of the recent FTSE fall. It hit a brickwall at 70 and a huge amount of shares have changed hands there. It had just crept over when the ftse carnage started. It’s fallen to the current price on very little volume so hopefully it will bounce back on similar. Happy to hold as comfortable enough with where this is going long term

4.8% Weir. Industrial with large exposure to US shale industry. Has been bashed down and I bought in at 1725-1825. Got some more last week at 1264 so those are getting sold any day now as I’ve got enough of these and I don’t believe in averaging. Every trade should stand on its own. The dividend is just over 3%. There were takeover rumours earlier in the year when the price was around 1700 so I’m hoping they will get resurrected. I’m happy to hold the rest for a while and see what happens

4.4% SPHR. Sphere Medical. This is speculative part of my portfolio. The share that will make me rich or I’ll lose all my money on it. 10 bagger or bust! It makes blood gas analysers for an intensive care setting without drawing any blood from the patients and provides instant results. Pretty good as I understand in ICU up to 19 blood tests can be required a day from patients. I imagine its pretty good for paediatrics too where babies don’t have loads of blood to start with. The product is launched and is at an early stage in the sales curve. This was Neil Woodford’s first investment from WPCT and he continues to add to his holding. Shares are very tightly held. An upgrade to the analyser is on its way which is hoped will significantly change the sales profile. I can talk endlessly about this company if anyone is interested which is a really bad sign as I’m too attached to it.

3.5% INTU. Property. I have a small profit on this despite buying months ago and Ftse being bashed around. I guess I’m looking for a 10% rise and to collect the dividends as I go. Very safe.

3.3% TATE. I’ve got a small profit on this too. Trade hasn’t gone as well as planned and I’d like to start reducing if it goes up as little as 3%

3.1% Another nameless stock I’m afraid. Quite illiquid and I haven’t decided if I’ve finished accumulating or not. I’ll only be taking a little more if I do.

2.9% LLOY. Who wouldn’t have Lloyds in their portfolio? Some dividends and good potential for growth. Share price a bit disappointing of late but I bought this at 39p so it owes me nothing.

1.9% STAN. Bought most of these at 737 last week although the rest are dire and out of the money from 890. I’m not feeling comfortable with them. Not sure what to do which means I’ll probably let them go and then watch the stock fly

1.4% BG. Held these from 820 from before the bid and just watched. Part of the reason I need to reduce my RDSB

1.2% CSG. Cyril Sweet Group. Bought at 22p so basically flat although I had the chance to sell higher. Quite speculative.

0.6% BP The only thing I can say about this is that having bought at 484 I didn’t buy any more on the way down. The dividend eases the pain ;-) Actually I did once buy some more on the way down but I had the sense to get out for a tiny profit on them.

0.6% AV. Bought at 498p a few months ago and this is all that’s left after selling four fifths higher up, so this has been good to me

0.5% FENR. 12% down on this although it’s bounced. Not much to say – not my best trade. The dividend is good.

0.5% HSBC. Out of the money on this. Could have done better.

0.1% Cash – I’m fully invested with Ftse at 6200 as I write today. Whilst I may rotate my stocks around a bit as there are some bargains out there right now I’ll in general be staying fully invested until Ftse hits 6500. I’ll reappraise then. I may change my mind depending on the mood of the market

i only dabble with trading stocks now, but SIPP as below
i have been managing that myself for the last 18 months or so, but i have no idea offhand which may have been held from the outset

anyway .....

humdinger FEVR

strong winners GOOG, AMZN, AAPL, BOO, BATS, IQE, TW., TLW

winners AMER, DOM, GVC, JII, PLP, RDSB, WPP

ok performers AAL, CINE, RTN, RMV, WTB

weak performers BVIC, ITV, KAZ, LLOY, TEF,

losers BVS, CPX, GWPH, HFD, MBH

stinkers AFC, KIN, RM2, TUNG

Crumbs that's a lot so is Fred's.

Nothing wrong with diversification. Not that I do it!

I'm currently up 36% this year with reflects largely being in construction, banks.

I have:
CTO 46% of portfolio (trade going well, most of it up between 20% and 50%. Some of it up a bit more even after dividends). Happy to sit in for ages

NMD 10%. Bought at 110. Now 325. What a star

RBS 8%. Down about 30%

SHAW 8%. Bought at 133. Now 340. Takeover in progress.

HSP 5%. Breakeven. Waste of capital to date but I'm hopeful

SFR 5% Up about 30%. Happy to hold

ALD 5%. Wish I had more. Bought around 110. Now 255. No reason to sell

WEIR 2%. Up a couple of percent.

LLOY 2%. I have some that have doubled but most I'm losing on if I don't count the dividends

SPHR 2%. Wish I'd never heard of it. Down more than 50% and that's after trading in and out to get some back

A few other bits, some up and down and 5% cash.

I desperately want to increase my cash holding but riding the trendline is working for me.

my sipp is a reasonable size, but yes i agree, there's now an argument for not adding further stocks

I remember what I think is very good advice for anyone dealing in shares from a poster on here called Juzzle, and I'm sure he won't mind me quoting him.

"In sharedealing, I believe in doing what works - and I have found what works for me. That, in my opinion, is what everyone should do - find what works for you, regardless of whatever others say, and regardless of what I say! "

I disagree!

8-)

-=-=-=

Must admit my holdings have done well, but feel apprehensive.

BARC, CNCT, weren't clever. CLLN, CLG yield is protecting and I expect a rebound. IRV likewise, bit irritated by dropping of div.

The timing of "latters" could have been better.

CC - what's so exciting about CTO that you stuck so much in there? .... i've just looked at the charts, inc 5-year, and they really are uninspiring

Says Fred , the fat cat capitalist who bought all those gas,water , power and Royal Mail shares.

Oh shut up Aldgit you prize Pratt.

Stan

Do you want to stay in the EU , did you vote BREXIT ? you haven't given your friend Red Fred any support i see. Are you another champaign socialist ?

How long did you take to compose your elegant reply to my post, you are such wordsmith .

Give stan a kiss and make up. :-))

or blow him a kiss. lol

Elegance? And what would you know about that aldgit..your a laugh a minute.

And as for you D/C..keep your big conk out of it http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-K68MkzDbkS4/TxWsHgolGTI/AAAAAAAAArA/EDWCOKyyIJ0/s400/Funny+Nose+Picture+%252813%2529.jpg


😜

Stan that does not look like a nose. :-))

Well if it's not your nose what is it? 😃

It's what's on top of your head Stan

Your being one stan. lol,

Why I like CTO

Financial year end Dec 2016
Cash £12.3m, revolving credit facility drawn £3.0m = Net Cash £9.3m
Interest paid in year £0.1m, in-line with revolving credit facility suggesting debt does not exceed £3.0m at any point in year
Underlying profit £6.2m, Reported £3.7m. Difference due to £2.7m fraud
EPS underlying 11.7p, reported 6.9p

Current dividend 3.2p. Yield 3.7%. In order triple the dividend to 10p, if 30% of pre-tax profits distributed (50% retained, 30% dividends, 20% corporation tax), pre-tax profit of £14m is required.
As company has nearly no debt, pre-tax profits service pension deficit, acquisition and shareholders. Pension deficit is £20m but agreement with pension trustees in place to fix by 2029 and payment profile similar to recovery payment in 2016.
Order book up 22% compared with this time last year. Margins improving driven by market recovery but more importantly by improving product mix and vertical integration.
In February company stated would beat analysts expectations for year and re-affirmed same in May. Not unreasonable to suggest an underlying profit of £9m for 2017.
£9m profit this year = £6.5m free cash flow assuming only minimal rise in dividend in 2017 as strengthening balance sheet and building cash for acquisition more important in short term than dividends. Would give £15.8m net cash by end of year.
By this time next year net cash will be £20m and what are they going to do with it? CTO used to pay dividend of 13p back in 2008. By 2020 if they get to £14m profit by then, if they don’t increase the dividend net cash will be £32.5m or 95p per share (recognizing that pension fund deficit will still exist, although I expect annuity rates to recover in this timeframe)
Downside Brexit apparently. Upside is government get hold of PSBR and are able to fund increased capital spend.

Think within 3 years worst case scenario is 50% upside, best case a multi-bagger.

Half year results will be interesting but we will have to wait until year end until we see the full picture. The management team imho are excessively cautious at half year to give themselves some slack in case the second half does not go well

A good year for me. 30.2% up overall although most of the money was made in the first half.

Takeovers on SHAW, ALD and INTU showed just how undervalued some of the stocks I hold are.

CTO my biggest holding I was desperately disappointed in this year but it was up 37%. I still think it's massively undervalued but Mr. Market does not yet agree.

NMD was up a mere 78% this year and has now tripled since I bought it. I continue to hold as it's got a long way to go yet.

The banks were good to me although I'm still running a loss on RBS. I've sold out of everything oil and oil related, my remaining builders and stuck the money on more CTO, INTU, LWB and PCF.

SPHR turned out to be a disaster and in 2 years the management managed to reduce the share value by 100%. I sold out before it completely fell apart with around a 85% loss and lessons learnt.

Mostly my success this year was due to being nearly 100% invested in the market as confidence rose post Brexit and being in Brexit sensitive stocks. I continue to believe there is further to run with these.

I finish the year with 2% cash. My biggest holdings are as follows at the current share price.

CTO 49.6%. (Need to think about the size of this holding as I've been saying for the last 2 years but with a 37% rise in 2017 and I feel somewhere between 25% and 50% in 2018 I'm not inclined to do anything but sit tight)
NMD 8.4%
INTU 7.6% (subject to merger with HMSO)
ALD 7.0% (takeover completing soon so can convert to cash anytime I want)
RBS 6.6% (all the stock beginning with a 1 and 2 now sold so reducing on this as the price rises)
SFR 3.8%
PCF 3.6%
LWB 2.8%

Rest of it is all pretty small. Some Lloyds, Burford Bonds, HSP, BLND, SBRE, STAN and a dog called GPH which was one of the worst IPO's of the year.