Ive always said I would not start looking at the Gold Explorers untill POG broke through $420, well its done that today and this company in my mind is the best potential producer around, and heres why.

MANAGEMENT

Has two experinced Managers in mining in Mark Parker and John Park, both have extensive exploration management in Africa in mining and have proved themselfs in the past selling out small mines to the big boys.

THE MINES

ZAMBIA.

Here the company as 5 potential Block busters but the REAL GEM of the company Sasere, known as EAGLE EYE is an old Gold mine but recent sampling shows that it could provide massive deposits of Copper and Gold.

These are the drilling results we are waiting for. Estimations are fantastic and we could see that the company is sitting on deposits worth many times over of the market cap of the company of circa 12.2 million.

MOZAMBIQUE

Three sites here and Nickel is the one they are looking for. Dont forget Nickel is the highest commodity riser after Gold and is hitting new highs.


TANZANIA

Big prospect here is Miyabi.

African Eagle are carrying out a joint venture with the giant Miner Gold Fields. Drilling results are to be given to Goldfields by 31/January this year.

If results are expected what the management of Goldfields want, African Eagle retain a 30% stake in one massive deposit.

This is an exciting investment but one that is HIGH RISK like any other gold explorer.

We should have news very early on two fronts.

If this news is positive we are looking at one hell of an investment.

Please Dyor and remember your buying and selling actions are in your own hands.

Cheers GF.

ps, up 19% today waiting for the results.

Good news. Copper has risen 1000 points since november last year now standing at 3000$/tonne. Great reads regarding copper in IC and Shares Magazine. If this continues AFE could reach reach 100p by the end of the year. Lets hope Eagle Eye is a top copper find. See report.

Price soars on solid demand
Base metal prices have rallied in recent weeks and copper is one of the metals leading the charge. In the past few weeks, the copper price has risen 10% to a new eight-year high of USc124/lb and analysts at Deutsche Bank think it still has momentum left. They think the copper price could test the 1995 high of $3,230/t in the coming months, if not weeks. There have been four such rallies in the past 35 years, but this is no flash in the pan, they say. Higher prices could be here to stay as improving demand and limited new mine capacity should support higher prices over the longer term.

Copper is the metal of choice for analysts at Deutsche Bank for its increasingly tight underlying fundamentals. A range of more speculative factors have also all aligned to give the price a fillip, in particular Chinese demand and US dollar weakness. In China, imports of copper rose a solid 15% year on year in 2003 and this momentum is expected to be a significant short and long-term driver of price. There are also signs of improving demand in some of the more developed markets, according to Deutsche Bank, particularly in the US and Europe, which are currently reflected in higher inventory outflows. Added to this, a strong speculative interest in copper has contributed to higher prices.

On the fundamental side, analysts cite tight supply as the key reason behind the price gain. A review of the projects in production, or due for production, in the next two years reveals just how limited these growth opportunities are. Apart from smaller expansions, there are only five large projects contributing to the growth in mine supply this year Sessego, El Teniente, Escondida, Collahausi and Olympic Dam.

A number of mining restarts should add to volumes, but the net result is more than offset by the impact of the Freeports Grasberg mine slippage and other disruptions, says Deutsche Bank. Freeport recently reduced its copper production targets for 2004 by 28% from 1.4mlb to 1.0mlb because of a delay in the mining of high-grade ore at the site. While these sort of disruptions tend to be once-offs, the main reason behind the fall in supply is the decline in exploration, R&D spending and capital investment across the commodity industry. These supply constrictions should place strong upward pressure on refined prices, increasing the probability of further price spikes.

Given this price momentum, Deutsche recommends investors take positions in mining stocks with exposure to the copper cycle. Its preferred pick is Anglo-Australian mining giant, BHP Billiton (BHP), which is in the process of ramping up its production of both copper and aluminium to tap into the improving demand. Analysts say: It continues to benefit from broad commodity exposure, while the expansion in copper and aluminium is proving well-timed. The groups opportunities are not just limited to earnings from copper; analysts also see the potential for expansion in its iron ore business. The volume expansion in iron ore, planned for 2006/07, would offset any momentum lost from the scaling back in its capital expenditure programme.

Australian-based mining giant Rio Tinto (RIO) is another miner offering exposure across a range of base metals. The company recently reported net earnings of $1.382 billion pre-exceptionals in 2003 against $1.53 billion the previous year. The result was weaker than expected, particularly in industrial minerals, aluminium and energy coal. Copper earnings were a strong point, as were earnings from iron ore and diamonds, according to analysts.

WMC Resources (A:WMRX) also recently reported full-year 2003 results. Full-year profits of A$246 million after tax were well ahead of consensus expectations of A$216 million. The income split revealed mixed results across its various divisions, with a particularly strong nickel contribution offset by weaker copper and fertiliser contributions, according to analysts. The surprise factor was the strong performance of the nickel price, particularly in the second half, which led to a premium in contained metal sales contracts.

Picking stocks with exposure to copper earnings is an investment choice that is underscored by strong fundamentals, according to Deutsche Bank. It is expected that the decline in copper inventory will increase the likelihood of further price rises, say the analysts, and for the mining giants which have a hand in this production, increased copper earnings may be a feature of balance sheets for years to come.


Copper mine expansions - major mine (Kt)
Country Mine 2003 2004 2005
Brazil Sossego 80 180
Chile El Teniente 283 458 454
Chile Escondida 860 1050 1200
Chile Collahuasi 393 465 475
Australia Olympic Dam 172 240 245
Source: Deutsche Bank estimates

I think will play some more money in AFE, im confident on its copper venture in Zambia.

Anyone got any thoughts about why AFE is sliding. I hoped it was having a breather before going north again. I have heard no news that would explain the slide.

Cheers in anticipation of any responses

B

I agree, The reason probably is because there isn't likely to be any news for 4-8 weeks and so people are going to be tempted to be sell and possible come back in later. I would say if you can afford to hold then you wont miss a sudden rise if there is early news.
I am tempted to buy some more at this price. I can't see this going below 19/20p at the most however I can see it racing up to 30+.
Only my opinion though ..

Hi G
Thanks for the comment.
It is difficult to get your head around shares like this which are quite volatile. On the one hand I want to limit any losses yet allowance has to be made for relatively large changes in share price. How do other folks cope with this? Do you simply accept a larger stop loss of perhaps 20 or 30% rather than 10 or 15%? Or is that the skill of share dealing I have yet to learn?
Sitting tight at the minute. Hope they find some more of the shiney stuff soon.

B

well i should have taken profits when it reached 27p but thought will go up. Now i will hold till at least it reaches 50% from this prices. I assume this will not move significantly till some more soil analysis is release. I think one should be really strict and have investing rules and strategies and MUST really stick to them, especially with such volatile shares. Sometimes one will make profits, sometimes not.

This is the response I got when I wrote to AFE: Need patience investors!!

Thank you for your interest.

You will be aware that this is the rainy season in East Africa so it is difficult to resume drilling until the rains stop.

There has been a good deal of interest in Miyabi since Gold Fields decided not to exercise their option, and we are negotiating. Likewise there has been interest in Eagle Eye.

There are soil and other geochemical results for several projects in the pipeline and we will announce them in due course.

We are an active company and you can expect to see a regular flow of news over the coming months.

Best regards,

Mark Parker
MD

Thanks XM

I get the impression that AFE know that they are sitting on a mountains of copper and a tidy sum of gold. They are just biding their time to give a full picture after the rains for the copper. The gold would be a bonus!!

remember...(afe website)
"The results show that the mineralisation is far more extensive and potentially richer than previously anticipated."

"Eagle Eye is a large mineralised system which we have only pinpricked by drilling so far. We were able to complete 11 of 30 planned drill holes and the results show the highly prospective nature of Eagle Eye"


Basically what they have found so far in eagle eye than expected.
The price is stable although in my opinion undervalued, however as highlighted previously patience is key. more tests at eagle eye may not START until the end of April.(Such a shame the rains came early.)...However there could be movement in the mean times on miyabi or even an announcement that the drilling on eagle eye has started early.

If they find a large Copper deposit we are in for a big party. Copper is at its highest, though gave way a little. Demand is at its highest and reserve are very low. See earlier comments I posted on this. Also take the example of MNA, a superb case in share rising in the copper market.

This has been well oversold and has started to rise back in the last 2 days. Should get back to between 24-26p and will rocket after the rains in 6+ weeks.

Spread has just closed to 20-20.5 and you can buy online at 20.25. this share should go up strongly purely on the price of copper which is going to become headline news in the next few weeks as reserves run out. Get in ahead of the crowds as this is now a copper play and the way forward, gold has lost its shine!

GF, any views on this at the moment with reference to the copper price, how many days are the exchanges tradin on at the moment, anyone know?

I EH, everythings gone quite on this one for the time being, seemingly its the rainy season until April where they are a prospecting/etc. Think theres an e-mail from the gaffer on this, on the thread a page back.

cheers GF.

I think that this is a short term winner at least, on thursday when everything was dropping like a stone, AFE went up proving that picking the right stock pays and that there is strong support for AFE in the short term. this also indicates that investors believe that this is undervalued at the current price. I would expect the strength to continue and that a re-evaluation will occur due to the copper deposits found, espcially given the price of copper at the moment. If the worlds copper reserves fall even more then it could make front page news as virtually everything electronic uses copper in one way or another. My experience is that a situation where there is an excess demand for a raw material, given a short term fixed supply, should lead to significant increases in share prices of producers/owners of that raw material.

Still everything a buy (like most of lat week and this week), the MM's are holding out but not for much longer, you can run but you can't hide boys!

The MM's will have to move the spread up soon, can anyone shed any light on why AFE didn't go down last week when everything else was falling?

Can't understanda why this is going down, a nice 100k buy at the close. AFE is into copper and gold, both of which are showing strength.
SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- Inflationary concerns drove investors to the precious metals market, sending April gold to a close of $411.30 an ounce, up $4.20. It's the highest closing level for futures since Feb. 18. It's the fourth-straight session of gains for the precious metal. And most metals futures follow suit, with May silver up 2.8 percent, May copper up 1.5 percent, and June palladium up 2.4 percent, but April platinum logged a minor loss, down 0.9 percent.

I here T1ps.com have a web cast out on this today with the CEO who is very bullish on all aspects of the company. Anyone a member who can give us a quick report??????.

cheers Gf.

hello all,

Another play Monterrico Metals have gone up 20% passing the 300p as I suggested. they have redefined for the better its copper and molybdenum reserves in Peru. This a good indicator of how may AFE behave if their copper in Eagle Eye proves to be viable.

Very surprised it hasn't jumped already, some information already out regarding the copper find from their last announcement. copper prices are rising faster than virtually anything else and there's very few copper related stocks that are listed apart from Monterrico and a couple of big buys. strong buy at the moment because the city will soon be jumping on anything copper related.